In-Depth Analysis of TCL Zhonghuan's Wafer Business Market Share Changes and Competitive Landscape

Based on the collected data and analysis, I will systematically interpret the competitive landscape reflected by the changes in TCL Zhonghuan’s wafer business market share.

Based on data analysis [0][1][2], TCL Zhonghuan’s wafer business market share shows the following trends:

• Market Share Change
  : From 20.8% in 2020 to an estimated 18.9% in 2025, a decrease of approximately
  1.9 percentage points
• Capacity Expansion
  : Continuous capacity expansion, increasing from 55GW to 196GW (a 256% growth), but capacity utilization is affected by industry supply-demand imbalance
• Industry Position
  : Maintained its
  top position in the industry
  with a 18.9% market share in 2024, shipping 125.8GW of wafers, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [1]

• Market Share Change
  : Plummeted from 32.1% in 2020 to an estimated 17.4% in 2025, a decrease of approximately
  14.7 percentage points
• Capacity Strategy
  : Took the initiative to reduce capacity from 190GW to 170GW starting in 2024, indicating strategic adjustment
• Weakened Competitive Advantage
  : Amid price wars, competition between LONGi’s 182mm wafer route and TCL Zhonghuan’s 210mm route has intensified

• Declining Concentration
  : The combined market share of CR2 dropped from 53.0% in 2020 to an estimated 36.3% in 2025, a decrease of
  16.7 percentage points
• Market Diversification
  : Second-tier players (such as HT-SAAE, Shuangliang Eco-Energy, and High-Jing Solar) are rising rapidly

From 2022 to 2024, the photovoltaic industry experienced severe overcapacity:

• Total industry capacity expanded from 264.5GW to nearly 1000GW, a nearly 4-fold increase
• Wafer prices continued to fall from their 2022 peak to below cash costs
• The entire industry fell into systemic losses in 2024, with TCL Zhonghuan reporting a loss of RMB 9.818 billion that year [1]

• Large-Size Wafers
  : TCL Zhonghuan promotes 210mm large-size wafers, shipping 60.4GW of large-size products in 2024
• N-Type Transition
  : The iteration from P-type to N-type technology is accelerating, putting pressure on enterprises to choose technological routes
• Cost Control
  : Leading enterprises reduce cutting costs through processes like tungsten wire and thinner slicing

• HT-SAAE
  : Rapidly expanded from 1.5GW to 35GW capacity
• Shuangliang Eco-Energy
  : Developed from scratch to 100GW capacity
• High-Jing Solar
  : New entrant quickly reached 65GW capacity

• 2020
  : LONGi + TCL Zhonghuan accounted for 53% of the market share, with CR2 dominating the market
• 2024
  : CR2 dropped to 36.6%, with market share of second and third-tier players increasing significantly
• Trend
  : The industry has entered a stage of “head concentration with multi-player game”

• Leading Enterprises
  : LONGi and TCL Zhonghuan extend to cell and module segments, laying out integrated operations
• Second-Tier Enterprises
  : Focus on a single segment to strengthen their capabilities, such as specialized wafer suppliers
• Technological Barriers
  : Differentiated competition across technological routes including BC cells, HJT, and TOPCon

• Policy Guidance
  : Starting from July 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized “anti-cutthroat competition” symposiums to promote industry self-discipline [3][4]
• Price Recovery
  : Silicon material prices have rebounded 38.9% from the start of the year, with profitability along the industrial chain gradually recovering
• Capacity Integration
  : A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform (Guanghe Qiancheng) was launched to promote the exit of outdated capacity

• The proportion of large-size 210 series products increased to 48% (60.4GW/125.8GW)
• Module shipments reached 1.9GW in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19%
• Laid out multi-technological route products such as Topcon and BC modules

• Invested in the Middle Eastern market, acquired a controlling stake in Maxeon to expand into the U.S. market
• Responded to trade barriers by promoting localized production

• Enhanced cell and module businesses, building differentiated competitiveness through shingled module routes
• Developed semiconductor wafer business in synergy, benefiting from the domestic substitution trend

1. Although TCL Zhonghuan’s market share has declined slightly, it still maintains its top position in the industry with scale and technological advantages
2. The industry is in a period of in-depth adjustment; driven by anti-cutthroat competition policies, 2026 is expected to see an inflection point for capacity clearance
3. Future competition will shift from “scale competition” to comprehensive strength competition involving “technology + quality + globalization”

[0] Gilin API - TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ) Company Profile and Financial Data
[1] Dongxing Securities - Research Report: “TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ): Performance Losses Due to Price Wars, Strengthening Weaknesses to Enhance Competitiveness”
[2] Huaon Industry Research Institute - “2025 In-Depth Market Analysis and Investment Strategy Consulting Report on China’s Wafer Industry”
[3] China Business News - “TCL Zhonghuan Releases Multi-Billion Yuan Loss Earnings Report in the Early Morning: What Does This Worse-Than-Expected Performance Reveal?”
[4] Securities Times - “2025 Photovoltaic Industry Battle: From Price Wars to Value Reconstruction”
[5] S&P Global Ratings China - “In-Depth Restructuring of the Photovoltaic Industry Amid Anti-Cutthroat Competition: Who Will Survive the Winter?”