Analysis of the Impact of Ctrip's Formal Antitrust Investigation on the Valuation of the Hong Kong-listed Internet Tourism Sector

Charts have been generated, and now I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

On January 14, 2026, based on prior verification and in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) formally initiated an investigation against Ctrip Group Limited on suspicion of abusing market dominance to engage in monopolistic conduct [1][2]. This is the first formal antitrust investigation launched by SAMR against a major platform enterprise since the 2021 “choose one out of two” cases involving Alibaba and Meituan [3].

The core suspected behaviors include:

• “Choose One Out of Two” Exclusive Clauses
  : Requiring partner merchants of a specific tier to remove their products from other OTA platforms
• Price Intervention via Technical Means
  : Automatically scraping competitors’ prices through the “Price Adjustment Assistant” system and forcing merchants to adjust their pricing
• Unreasonable Commission Charges
  : Comprehensive commission rates as high as 30%-40%

As of the end of 2024, Ctrip’s GMV market share in the core hotel and travel market reached 56%. If Tongcheng Travel (with a market share of approximately 13%), in which Ctrip has a strategic investment, is included, the “Ctrip ecosystem” accounts for nearly 70% of the domestic OTA market share [1][2].

After the news of the investigation broke, the capital market reacted sharply:

As of January 16, 2026, Ctrip’s Hong Kong stock (9961.HK) closed at HK$460, with a market capitalization of approximately HK$300 billion [0]. The company’s stock price fell by a cumulative 23.52% over 5 days, with a year-to-date decline of over 21% [0].

As a member of the Ctrip ecosystem, Tongcheng Travel (0780.HK) saw relatively stable stock price performance, falling by only about 3% on January 15, with a cumulative increase of 54.40% over the past year [0]. This reflects the market’s view that Tongcheng Travel may benefit from changes in the competitive landscape.

The above chart shows:

1. Stock Price Trend Comparison
   : Performance differences between Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel before and after the investigation announcement
2. Intraday Price Volatility
   : Ctrip’s stock price had an intraday amplitude of over 7% on January 15
3. Industry P/E Comparison
   : Ctrip’s P/E was compressed to 8.63x, significantly lower than that of its peers
4. Impact Factor Ratings
   : Regulatory risks and market sentiment have significant negative impacts

Affected by the news of the investigation, Ctrip’s valuation multiples declined rapidly:

According to professional valuation analysis [0], Ctrip’s current valuation has seen a significant pullback:

According to China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, abusing market dominance may result in a fine of 1%-10% of the previous year’s turnover [3]. Based on Ctrip’s revenue of approximately RMB 47 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, the potential fine range is RMB 490 million to RMB 4.9 billion (approximately USD 70 million to USD 700 million) [3].

As the absolute leader of the sector, Ctrip’s valuation decline has weighed on sentiment across the entire internet tourism sector:

• Sector Sentiment Under Pressure
  : Investors’ concerns about regulatory risks in the platform economy have risen
• Valuation Multiple Pullback
  : The sector’s average P/E faces downward revision pressure
• Capital Flow Changes
  : Some capital has flowed out of high regulatory risk targets

Ctrip’s current P/E (8.63x) is significantly lower than that of peer companies:

• Tongcheng Travel: Approximately 18.5x
• Meituan: Approximately 25.3x
• Tencent: Approximately 22.8x

If regulatory attitudes continue to tighten, the valuation hub of the entire internet platform economy sector may face pressure for a systematic downward shift.

1. Regulatory Uncertainty
   : The investigation conclusion and penalty intensity remain unclear
2. Business Rectification Risk
   : Forced relaxation of price controls on merchants may affect profit margins
3. Changes in Competitive Landscape
   : Competitors such as Meituan and Fliggy may take the opportunity to expand their market share
4. User Trust Crisis
   : Previous controversy over “big data price discrimination” combined with regulatory pressure

• Subsequent regulatory announcements and penalty decisions
• Company’s business rectification measures and implementation status
• Specific reflection of business impacts in quarterly financial reports
• Changes in competitors’ market share

• Short-term
  : It is recommended to reduce the overall allocation ratio of the internet tourism sector until regulatory risks become clear
• Mid-term
  : Focus on investment opportunities brought by improved competitive landscape, such as beneficiary targets like Meituan
• Long-term
  : Standardized development of the sector is conducive to the formation of a healthy competitive landscape, and high-quality leaders still have allocation value

The formal antitrust investigation against Ctrip by SAMR marks the entry of the online tourism industry into a new phase of standardized supervision. In the short term, Ctrip and the entire Hong Kong-listed internet tourism sector will face significant valuation pressure, and the rise in regulatory risk premiums will lead to a systematic pullback in valuation multiples. In the medium to long term, the industry’s competitive landscape may evolve in a healthier direction, but regulatory uncertainty remains the biggest factor suppressing current valuations.

Investors need to closely monitor regulatory developments, carefully assess the balance between industry risks and opportunities, and maintain a cautious allocation strategy until uncertainties are clarified.

[1] Sina Finance - “SAMR Initiates Investigation into Ctrip, Antitrust Supervision of Online Tourism Platforms Continues to Deepen” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/aigcy/2026-01-15/doc-inhhkrvv6361003.shtml)

[2] 21st Century Business Herald - “Targeting ‘Anti-Involution’, Ctrip is Investigated by SAMR” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260114/herald/c586d9e945470e7b229deacdfd30b794.html)

[3] Securities Times - “Ctrip Group’s Stock Plunges Over 18% as it is Investigated by SAMR on Suspicion of Monopoly” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3594376.html)

[4] Caifuhao - “Ctrip Runs into Antitrust Investigation, is it Unfairly Targeted?” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260115153217493813930)

[0] Gilin AI Financial Database