In-Depth Analysis of A-Share Trading Volume Hitting a Record High in 2026 and the Sustainability of the Bull Market

Based on the latest market data and research materials, I will systematically analyze the current trading situation of the A-share market and the issue of bull market sustainability.

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Since January 2026, A-share market trading volume has continued to surge:

Date	Trading Volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen Markets	Change from Previous Day	Market Performance
January 6	2.81 trillion yuan	-	Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.92%
January 9	3.05 trillion yuan	+8.5%	First break above 3 trillion yuan in 73 trading days
January 12	3.64 trillion yuan	+19.3%	Hit a record high, 17 consecutive gains
January 14	3.94 trillion yuan	+8.2%	Extended record high, approaching 4 trillion yuan

As of January 14, 2026, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded the 3 trillion yuan mark for two consecutive trading days. This is the second time in 2026 and the sixth time in history that the 3 trillion yuan threshold has been broken [1][2]. Among them, the trading volume of the Shanghai market reached 1.45 trillion yuan, and that of the Shenzhen market reached 2.16 trillion yuan [1].

The Shanghai Composite Index posted

, setting the longest consecutive rising record for A-shares since 1993:

• January 12 close: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% to 4165.29 points
• Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.75% to 14366.91 points
• ChiNext Index rose 1.82% to 3388.34 points
• Over 4,100 individual stocks rose across the market, with more than 200 hitting their daily trading limits [3]

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• As of January 13, 2026, the balance of A-share margin trading and short selling reached
  2.67 trillion yuan
  , hitting a record high [4]
• In the first 7 trading days of 2026, the net purchase volume of margin financing approached
  140 billion yuan
• The pace of leveraged capital entering the market has accelerated significantly

• The second phase of the “Solvency II” for the insurance industry has been fully launched, bringing hundreds of billions of yuan in incremental capital [3]
• The issuance scale of equity funds reached 417.316 billion shares in 2025, hitting a record high
• The trend of household deposits shifting to the equity market is obvious

• Goldman Sachs: Expects China’s stock market to rise 15%-20% annually in 2026 and 2027 [5]
• JPMorgan Chase: Upgraded China’s market rating to “Overweight” [5]
• International investors have relatively light positions, and valuations remain in a reasonable range

Indicator	Current Status	Interpretation
Margin Sentiment Indicator	36%	Has not reached the historical overheated level (above 40%) [6]
Individual Stock Rise-Fall Ratio	4144:1000	Significant profit-making effect
Number of Stocks Hitting Daily Limit	200+	Market sentiment is enthusiastic

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• The profit share of the eight advanced manufacturing industries has increased to
  38%
• The overseas revenue share of Chinese companies expanding overseas has increased to
  20%
• The gross profit margin in overseas markets is 5 percentage points higher than that in the domestic market
• The ROE of non-financial A-share companies has stabilized for consecutive quarters [5]

• Domestic monetary policy maintains a “moderately loose” stance
• “Anti-involution” policies have improved the competitive landscape of traditional industries
• Fiscal policy is exerting efforts to create new demand
• The 15th Five-Year Plan focuses on “building a modern industrial system” and “self-reliance in science and technology” [5]

• The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cut cycle in 2026
• RMB assets have become more attractive
• International investors are increasingly optimistic about the long-term allocation value of Chinese assets

• AI applications are extending from computing power to end-use applications
• Breakthroughs have been achieved in the commercial aerospace and robotics industries
• Re-rating of China’s advanced manufacturing sectors such as energy storage and photovoltaic [5]

• On January 14, the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Stock Exchanges raised the margin requirement for margin financing from
  80% to 100%
  [4]
• Applicable only to newly opened margin financing contracts, aiming to appropriately reduce leverage levels
• Reflects regulators’ “targeted adjustment” regulatory approach

• Some hot sectors have high crowding levels and need to digest pressure
• The Shanghai Composite Index did not experience a decent correction during the 17 consecutive gains
• High trading volume is often accompanied by high volatility [6]

• Mid-to-late January enters the intensive disclosure period of earnings forecasts
• The market’s attention to fundamental verification has increased
• Long-short games will become more intense [6]

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Institution	View
Zhongyuan Securities	Effective volume expansion, positive policy expectations, continuous industrial catalysis, the market is expected to continue to advance, and it is likely that the Shanghai Composite Index will maintain a small volatile upward trend [6]
Shenwan Hongyuan	2025 was a “structural bull market”, and a “comprehensive bull market” is expected in the second half of 2026 [5]
GF Securities	The A-share market is expected to continue the “slow bull” pattern in 2026, with relatively restrained valuation increases and limited overdraw [5]
Goldman Sachs	Predicts that China’s stock market is expected to achieve a 38% increase by the end of 2027 [5]

Yang Delong, Chief Economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, said:

“This round of market is a slow and long bull market, which may last 3 to 5 years, or even 5 to 10 years. The market will further expand in 2026, with significantly improved profit-making effects and more investment opportunities.” [3]

: After the introduction of regulatory “cooling” measures, the market may enter a volatile consolidation period, but the upward trend remains unchanged. The key is to observe the support of the 5-day moving average [6].

: Corporate earnings recovery, policy support, and foreign capital inflows will continue to provide support, and the index is expected to maintain a small volatile upward trend.

: Industrial structure upgrading, technological innovation breakthroughs, and household wealth transfer will drive the “comprehensive bull market” [5].

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• AI applications (e-commerce, short drama games, brain-computer interfaces)
• Commercial aerospace, satellite internet
• Robotics, intelligent manufacturing

• Basic chemicals, industrial metals
• Consumer blue-chip stocks
• Construction machinery, agrochemical products

• Focus on targets with earnings forecasts exceeding expectations
• Focus on varieties with improved prosperity in the external demand chain
• Themes with relatively low crowding levels [4]

1. Leverage Risk
   : After the margin requirement for margin financing is raised, leverage costs increase
2. Volatility Risk
   : Record-high trading volume is accompanied by high volatility, so caution is needed when chasing highs in short-term trading
3. Earnings Risk
   : Pay attention to fundamental verification and avoid excessive chasing of hot themes
4. Policy Risk
   : Pay close attention to subsequent policy trends

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The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan (actually exceeding 3 trillion yuan) does reflect a rise in market sentiment and increased capital activity. The current A-share market shows a typical pattern of “rising volume and price”, and the bull market

, but attention should be paid to the following:

Time Horizon	Assessment
Short-term	⚠️ Regulators have taken “cooling” measures, and the market may enter a volatile consolidation period
Medium-term	✅ Supported by improved corporate earnings and household deposit “shift” to the equity market
Long-term	✅ Supported by policies and industrial upgrading driving the slow bull pattern

It is recommended that investors maintain a volatility mindset, lay out positions on dips around the main themes, pay attention to opportunities with earnings exceeding expectations, and closely follow policy changes and fundamental verification.

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[1] Jiemian News - Trading Volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen Markets Exceeds 3.6 Trillion Yuan, Hitting a New Historical High

[2] Cailianshe - Trading Volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen Markets Exceeds 1.5 Trillion Yuan

[3] China Finance Network - A-Share Posts 17 Consecutive Gains, Trading Volume Hits Record High, Will This Bull Market Last 5 to 10 Years?

[4] The Paper - Exchanges Take “Cooling” Measures, Shanghai Composite Index Pulls Back After Hitting High, Trading Volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen Markets Approaches 4 Trillion Yuan

[5] Sina Finance - Super Market is Ready to Launch! A-Shares Will Welcome a “Comprehensive Bull Market” in 2026

[6] The Paper - What Will Happen to the Short-Term Market After A-Share Single-Day Trading Volume Reaches 3.64 Trillion Yuan?