Analysis of the Impact of the New China-Canada Cooperation Framework on Canadian Resource Export Enterprises and Cross-Border Investment

Based on the comprehensive information I have collected, I now provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney paid an official visit to China from January 14 to 17, 2026, marking the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to China since 2017 [1][2]. The core objectives of this visit include repairing China-Canada relations, promoting trade diversification, and seeking new development opportunities for Canadian resource export enterprises and cross-border investment.

China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner. In 2024, the total bilateral merchandise trade volume reached USD 118.7 billion, with Canada exporting USD 29.9 billion to China and importing USD 88.8 billion [3]. However, more than 75% of Canada’s total exports flow to the U.S., and this over-reliance exposes its economy to significant risks when U.S. trade policies change [4].

China and Canada signed a memorandum of understanding on energy cooperation covering multiple fields such as oil and gas development, liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and natural uranium trade [5][6]. The two sides agreed to establish a regular energy ministerial dialogue mechanism with an interval of 12 to 18 months. Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources Tim Hodgson clearly stated that Canada welcomes increased Chinese investment in oil sands and LNG projects [7].

Impact Dimension	Specific Analysis
Market Diversification	Canada is seeking to break away from its trade reliance on the U.S. China-Canada energy cooperation will provide new Asian market channels for Canadian energy exports, helping to diversify export market risks
Export Potential	China has clearly stated that it hopes to find reliable trading partners and import more Canadian energy products, which creates more possibilities for Canadian oil and gas, and uranium resource export enterprises to export to China
Infrastructure Support	Canada is considering building a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast, and the energy cooperation agreement provides policy-level support for this

Canada announced that it will welcome Chinese investment in the energy, agriculture, and consumer goods sectors [8]. In the energy sector, Canada maintains an open attitude towards Chinese investment in oil sands and LNG projects, which creates a more stable and favorable policy environment for cross-border investment by energy enterprises of the two countries.

After Canada followed the U.S. in imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024, China implemented countermeasures, imposing a margin as high as 75.8% on Canadian canola, and levying additional tariffs on pork and seafood [9][10]. In August 2025, China further raised the canola tariff to 76%, leading to China’s suspension of purchases of Canadian canola and a significant drop in Canadian canola exports [11].

• The Canola Growers of Canada stated that if the issue is not resolved, producers will lose at least
  CAD 2 billion
  in 2026 [12]
• Saskatchewan grows more than half of Canada’s canola and has been hit the hardest [13]
• 40,000 canola growers in western Canada have lost tens of thousands of dollars per capita [14]

During this visit, the two sides promised to “maintain unobstructed communication channels” in the trade and economic roadmap to solve agricultural product trade issues [15]. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe accompanied the visit to China to specifically promote the resolution of the canola tariff issue. Canada’s agricultural sector hopes that this visit will become “the beginning of the end of the tariff issue” and promote the launch of negotiations between the two sides [16].

Vina Nadjibulla, Vice President of Research and Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, predicted that the two sides may establish a partnership in the green energy field [17]. New cooperation opportunities in the energy sector are one of the core topics of this visit.

Field	Impact Assessment
Nickel, Lithium, Cobalt	Cooperation in the form of joint ventures to guarantee China’s long-term demand for battery minerals, while attracting investment to Canada
Investment Scale	Relevant institutions in Ontario estimate that strategic mineral projects related to the battery supply chain will attract tens of billions of Canadian dollars in investment over the next decade [18]
Industrial Upgrading	Promote the development of domestic mineral processing and refining industries, bringing a large number of permanent jobs to remote mining towns in Canada

The Toronto Stock Exchange performed relatively steadily during Carney’s visit to China (January 6 to 15, 2026):

Date	Closing Price	Change
2026-01-06	32,407.00	+0.56%
2026-01-09	32,612.90	+0.48%
2026-01-12	32,874.70	+0.61%
2026-01-15	33,028.90	+0.23%

(8 trading days), indicating that the market is cautiously optimistic about China-Canada cooperation [19].

A December 2025 survey by Ipsos, a polling firm, showed that 54% of Canadians support a trade agreement with China, while only 32% oppose it [20].

The Carney government plans to double Canada’s exports to non-U.S. markets by 2035, achieving an

[21]. This strategic objective provides long-term policy support and market expansion directions for Canadian resource export enterprises.

Based on the collected information, the comparison of impact levels in various fields is as follows:

Industry Sector	Impact Level	Urgency	Uncertainty	Risk Rating
Canola/Agriculture	High	Extremely High	Medium	High Risk/To Be Resolved
Energy Exports	High	High	Low	Low Risk/High Opportunity
Natural Gas	Medium-High	Medium	Medium	Medium Risk/Medium Opportunity
Uranium Mining	High	High	Low	Low Risk/High Opportunity
Cross-Border Investment (Energy)	High	High	Low	Low Risk/High Opportunity
Cross-Border Investment (Mining)	Medium-High	Medium	Medium	Medium Risk/Medium Opportunity
Battery Manufacturing	High	High	Low	Low Risk/High Opportunity

1. Energy Sector
   is the biggest beneficiary of China-Canada cooperation. The newly signed cooperation framework provides clear policy support and market opportunities for Canadian energy export enterprises and cross-border investment.

2. Agricultural Sector
   faces short-term challenges, and the canola tariff issue remains a restrictive factor, but the two sides have established a communication mechanism and are expected to make a breakthrough in the short term.

3. Critical Minerals Sector
   has long-term cooperation potential. The joint venture model can achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, but it takes a long time to promote.

4. Cross-Border Investment
   environment has improved significantly. Canada holds a more open attitude towards Chinese investment, especially in the energy and clean technology sectors.

Recommendation Type	Specific Content
Short-Term Focus	Energy export enterprises and uranium mining-related enterprises are likely to benefit first
Mid-Term Layout	LNG projects and battery mineral processing fields have investment potential
Risk Management	The canola tariff issue remains the main risk factor in the agricultural sector; close attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations
Strategic Perspective	Focus on the long-term policy dividends brought by the Canadian government’s 2035 export doubling strategy

The establishment of the new China-Canada cooperation framework marks the entry of bilateral relations into a “new era” [22], creating unprecedented opportunities for Canadian resource export enterprises and cross-border investors. However, uncertainties in some fields (such as the canola tariff issue) still require continuous attention.

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[1] Chatham House - “As Carney visits China to diversify Canada’s trade” (https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/carney-visits-china-diversify-canadas-trade-donroe-doctrine-further-strains-us-relations)

[2] Prime Minister of Canada’s Office - “Prime Minister Carney to build strategic partnerships, diversify Canada’s trade” (https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/01/07/prime-minister-carney-build-strategic-partnerships-diversify-canadas)

[3] QIIA Global Geopolitical and Economic Dynamics - “2026 Issue 1” (https://www.qiia.org/zh-hans/node/1772)

[4] China.org.cn - “Former Canadian Prime Minister: China-Canada Relations Return to the Right Track, Opening a New Chapter of Cooperation” (https://news.china.com/socialgd/10000169/20260112/49157656.html)

[5] Oil Price - “Canada and China Unveil Landmark Energy Cooperation Agreements” (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Canada-and-China-Unveil-Landmark-Energy-Cooperation-Agreements.html)

[6] Shipping Matters - “Canada signals openness to Chinese investment in energy” (https://shippingmatters.ca/canada-signals-openness-to-chinese-investment-in-energy/)

[7] Reuters - “Canada’s Carney hails warmer ties with China” (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-canada-move-reset-ties-carney-visits-2026-01-15/)

[8] National Post - “No tariff relief as Carney re-ups old deals with Chinese government” (https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/no-tariff-relief-in-sight-as-carney-re-ups-old-agreements-with-chinese-government-on-energy-lumber)

[9] Barchart - “Canadian farmers hoping Carney can find resolution to canola tariffs in China” (https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37033738/canadian-farmers-hoping-carney-can-find-resolution-to-canola-tariffs-in-china)

[10] The Paper - “Diplomacy | Canadian Prime Minister Visits China After 8 Years: Looking for More ‘Baskets’ to Hold ‘Eggs’” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32369343)

[11] Financial Post - “Here’s how Canada can balance U.S. and China trade” (https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-balance-us-china-trade)

[12] Canadian Press via Barchart - “Canadian farmers hoping Carney can find resolution to canola tariffs in China” (https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37033738/canadian-farmers-hoping-carney-can-find-resolution-to-canola-tariffs-in-china)

[13] Wenxuecity - “Canada and China Sign Shocking Trade Agreement, Washington Panics” (https://www.wenxuecity.com/myblog/72696/202601/10211.html)

[14] The Globe and Mail via The Paper - Cited Report (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32369343)

[15] Reuters - “China-Canada move to reset ties as Carney visits” (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-canada-move-reset-ties-carney-visits-2026-01-15/)

[16] CBC via The Paper - Cited Report (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32369343)

[17] British Columbia Minister of Energy via The Paper - Cited Report (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32369343)

[18] Wenxuecity - “Canada and China Sign Shocking Trade Agreement, Washington Panics” (https://www.wenxuecity.com/myblog/72696/202601/10211.html)

[19] Jinling API Market Data - Historical Price Data of Toronto Stock Exchange Index (TSE) (January 6 to January 15, 2026)

[20] Ipsos Poll via The Paper - “Canadian Prime Minister Visits China After 8 Years” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32369343)

[21] Carney’s October 2025 Television Speech via Wenxuecity - “Canada and China Sign Shocking Trade Agreement, Washington Panics” (https://www.wenxuecity.com/myblog/72696/202601/10211.html)

[22] Oil Price - “Canada and China Unveil Landmark Energy Cooperation Agreements” (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Canada-and-China-Unveil-Landmark-Energy-Cooperation-Agreements.html)