Ginlix AI
50% OFF

Investment Timing Analysis Report on IFBH Limited's Hong Kong IPO

#ipo #港股 #餐饮行业 #饮料 #椰子水 #投资分析 #估值分析 #比格餐饮
Neutral
HK Stock
January 16, 2026

Unlock More Features

Login to access AI-powered analysis, deep research reports and more advanced features

About us: Ginlix AI is the AI Investment Copilot powered by real data, bridging advanced AI with professional financial databases to provide verifiable, truth-based answers. Please use the chat box below to ask any financial question.

Related Stocks

06862.HK
--
06862.HK
--
00999.HK
--
00999.HK
--
09922.HK
--
09922.HK
--
09987.HK
--
09987.HK
--
01364.HK
--
01364.HK
--
09658.HK
--
09658.HK
--
02097.HK
--
02097.HK
--

Based on the market data I collected and calculations from analytical tools, I have prepared the following detailed investment analysis report for you:


Investment Timing Analysis Report on IFBH Limited’s Hong Kong IPO
I. Company Overview of IFBH Limited
1.1 Company Positioning and Business Model

IFBH International Holdings Limited is a

Thailand-rooted, fast-growing ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage and ready-to-eat food company
, not the previously market-misunderstood “BigC Pizza” chain restaurant enterprise[1]. The company is committed to bringing exquisite Thai flavors and fresh experiences to global consumers, with its core products being
coconut water beverages
and related ready-to-eat foods.

Business Model Features:

  • Product Portfolio
    : Centered on the “if” brand coconut water, with the new “if” fruit tea series (including peach tea, lychee tea, lemon tea) launched in 2025
  • Supply Chain Advantage
    : Adopts an “asset-light + supplier cooperation” model, with no warehouses, and inventory turnover days controlled within 2-3 days
  • Channel Coverage
    : Online channels (e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, etc.) + offline channels (retail terminals such as supermarkets, convenience stores, with 650,000-700,000 POS store coverage points)
  • Brand Strategy
    : Signed top Chinese celebrity Xiao Zhan as the global brand spokesperson, successfully renewed the contract in June 2025
1.2 Market Share and Industry Position

IFBH Limited holds an

absolute leading position
in China’s coconut water market:

  • Has ranked first in China’s mainland coconut water beverage market for five consecutive years since 2020
  • Captured approximately
    34%
    market share in 2024, more than seven times that of the second-largest competitor[2]
1.3 Financial Performance (Key Data Overview)
Financial Indicator 2023 2024 H1 2025 YoY Change
Revenue (USD 100 million) 0.87 1.58 0.94 +80.3%/+31.5%
Net Profit (USD 10,000) - 3,331.6 - -
ROE - 21% - -
ROA - 45% - -
Asset-Liability Ratio - 17.9% 17.9% -
Current Ratio - - 5.48 -

Key Financial Highlights:

  • High Growth
    : Revenue grew 80.3% YoY in 2024, and 31.5% YoY in H1 2025
  • Excellent Profitability
    : ROA reached 45%, indicating extremely high asset operation efficiency
  • Financial Stability
    : Asset-liability ratio is only 17.9%, current ratio is 5.48, with no long-term liabilities
  • Ample Cash Reserves
    : As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents reached USD 164 million, representing a 199.4% YoY increase[3]

II. Valuation Environment Analysis of Hong Kong Stock Market Catering Sector
2.1 Current Valuation Level

Hong Kong Catering Sector Valuation Comparison

Based on the latest market data, the Hong Kong catering sector shows a

distinct valuation differentiation pattern
:

Stock Code Company Name Price-to-Earnings (PE) Price-to-Book (PB) Valuation Feature
06862.HK Haidilao 15.3x 5.9x Leading enterprise at low position, reasonable valuation
00999.HK Xiaocaiyuan 15.5x 4.25x Main board newcomer, undervalued
09922.HK Jiu Mao Jiu 17.1x 0.8x Undervalued
09987.HK Yum China 17.4x 2.84x Stable leading enterprise
01364.HK Guming 21.4x 12.6x High-growth tea beverage brand
09658.HK Speciality Restaurant International 24.3x 2.94x Overseas expansion
02097.HK Mixue Group 25.3x 6.83x Overvalued

Valuation Feature Analysis:

  • The overall valuation of the Hong Kong catering sector is in a
    historical low range
    , with a median PE of approximately 18-20x
  • It has dropped significantly from the 2021 peak (Haidilao’s PE once reached 1090x)[4]
  • Analysts generally believe that the catering sector is a
    relatively scarce valuation depression
    at present
2.2 Market Sentiment and Capital Flow

Recent Market Performance (January 14, 2026):

  • Hong Kong catering stocks rallied collectively, with Haidilao surging over
    9%
    to hit a recent high
  • Jiu Mao Jiu, Green Tea Group and others followed with gains of over 2%
  • Market sentiment was boosted by Haidilao founder Zhang Yong reassuming the CEO position[5]

Institutional Opinion Summary:

  • Zheshang Securities
    : The catering sector is a scarce valuation depression at present, and all brands have strong elasticity compared to 2019
  • Guotai Haitong Securities
    : The sector has passed its worst operating period, rational competition has become a consensus, and it is expected to welcome a “Davis Double Play”
  • Citi
    : Holds a positive view on Zhang Yong reassuming Haidilao’s helm, maintains a “Buy” rating with a target price of HK$19.7[6]

III. Review of 2025 Hong Kong IPO Market for Catering Enterprises

IFBH Limited Financial Analysis

3.1 Catering IPO Boom

2025 became a “big year” for catering enterprises listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the following main characteristics:

Successful Listing Cases:

  1. Guming Holdings
    (February): Raised approximately HK$2.6 billion, rose 0.6% on its first trading day, with Tencent and Meituan Dragon Ball as cornerstone investors
  2. Mixue Bingcheng
    (March): Raised approximately HK$4 billion,
    oversubscribed 5258 times
    , surged 43.21% on its first trading day, with market capitalization once exceeding HK$100 billion
  3. CHAGEE
    (April): Listed on the US NASDAQ, becoming the first Chinese tea beverage brand to list on the US stock market
  4. Aunt Shanghai
    (May):
    Oversubscribed 3616 times
    , opened 68.49% higher on its first trading day
  5. Green Tea Group, Meet Noodles
    and others successively listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Enterprises in the Listing Queue:

  • Mingming Mangmang
    (merged from Lingshi Mangmang and Zhao Yiming): Passed the HKEX hearing on January 6, 2026
  • Banu International
    : Completed announcement update on December 17, 2025
  • Yuanji Wonton
    : Submitted listing application in 2025, post-investment valuation is approximately RMB 3.5 billion
  • Laoxiang Chicken
    : Applied for Hong Kong listing three times, continuously updating its prospectus
3.2 Changes in IPO Market Environment

IPO Market Environment Analysis

Signals of Tighter Regulation:

In December 2025,
HKEX and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) jointly sent a letter to sponsors in a rare move
, pointing out issues such as low document quality, exaggerated data, and inadequate performance of duties by sponsors in IPO applications[7].

This means:

  • The focus of IPO review is shifting from “quantity” to “quality”
  • Subsequent enterprises will face stricter scrutiny for listing
  • IFBH Limited needs to ensure the completeness and accuracy of information disclosure in its prospectus

IV. Investment Timing Evaluation for IFBH Limited’s IPO
4.1 Positive Factors

1. Strong Fundamentals

  • Ranked first in China’s coconut water market share for five consecutive years (34%)
  • 80.3% revenue growth in 2024, with outstanding growth potential
  • Extremely healthy financial status (low debt, high liquidity, high ROE)

2. Niche Track Uniqueness

  • Scarcity of targets in the beverage sub-track
    within the Hong Kong catering sector
  • Healthy consumption trend benefits the coconut water category
  • Forms differentiated competition with Haidilao, Nayuki’s Tea, etc.

3. Market Scale Growth

  • The scale of China’s RTD beverage market continues to expand
  • The annual growth rate of the coconut water category is higher than that of the overall beverage market
  • Export business covers markets such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, etc.

4. Relatively Favorable Current Market Environment

  • The valuation of Hong Kong catering sector is at a historical low
  • Market expectations for consumption recovery are increasing
  • Consumption peak season effect before the Spring Festival
4.2 Risk Factors

1. Market Cognition Bias

  • The company name “BigC Catering” is easily confused with “BigC Pizza”, which may lead to investor cognitive bias
  • The main business is beverages rather than traditional catering, so investor education needs to be strengthened

2. Risk of Intensified Competition

  • Competition in the coconut water market is intensifying, with more brands entering
  • Large beverage enterprises may launch competing products
  • Continuous product innovation is required to maintain a leading position

3. Warning Signals in Operating Data

  • Accounts receivable turnover days extended from 12 days to 27 days in H1 2025
  • Trade receivables surged
    194.4%
    compared to the end of 2024
  • Net cash flow from operating activities plummeted
    37.5%
    YoY

4. Liquidity Challenges in Hong Kong Stock Market

  • The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market is limited
  • Institutional investors have relatively conservative pricing
  • Valuation may be lower than that of the A-share market

5. Regulatory Uncertainty

  • HKEX review is becoming stricter, and the listing schedule may be delayed
  • Need to pay attention to further inquiries after the hearing

V. Investment Recommendations and Conclusions
5.1 Valuation Reference
Valuation Method Calculation Result Notes
PE Method (15-20x) USD 75-100 million Based on 2024 net profit of USD 33.31 million
PS Method (2-3x) USD 50-75 million Based on 2024 revenue of USD 158 million
Market Comparable Method Refer to valuations of Guming and Mixue Industry differences need to be considered

Note: Actual IPO pricing needs to consider market environment and investor feedback

5.2 Investment Timing Rating

Comprehensive Rating: ★★★☆☆ (Moderately Positive)

Core Conclusions:

  1. Business Model Feasibility
    : IFBH Limited’s asset-light operation model, supply chain efficiency, and leading market share have been verified, with clear business logic.

  2. Growth Potential Evaluation
    : The company has sustainable growth capabilities, but needs to pay attention to operating quality signals such as deteriorating accounts receivable. Medium-term growth depends on category expansion and in-depth market penetration.

  3. Valuation Environment Judgment
    : The current Hong Kong catering sector is in a valuation depression and has medium-to-long-term allocation value. However, attention should be paid to the overall liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market and institutional investor preferences.

  4. Timing Considerations
    :

    • Advantageous Window
      : Rising expectations for consumption recovery, approaching Spring Festival peak season, sector valuation at historical low
    • Risk Window
      : Tighter regulation, intensified competition, liquidity constraints

Recommended Strategies:

  • Conservative Investors
    : May decide whether to participate after the IPO pricing is released, prioritizing long-term allocation value
  • Aggressive Investors
    : May consider accumulating positions on dips during market corrections to seize valuation repair opportunities
  • Risk Warning
    : Need to closely track hearing progress, prospectus updates and final pricing

VI. Risk Warnings
  1. Market Risk
    : Fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market may affect IPO pricing and post-listing stock performance
  2. Competition Risk
    : Intensified competition in the coconut water market may erode market share and profit margins
  3. Operating Risk
    : The rapid rise in accounts receivable suggests that credit policies may need to be adjusted
  4. Regulatory Risk
    : Tighter HKEX review may lead to listing delays or requirements for supplementary materials
  5. Liquidity Risk
    : The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively limited, and large transactions may affect stock prices

References

[1] IFBH Limited Prospectus - HKEX

[2] Securities Times - IFBH Passes Hearing

[3] East Money - IFBH Limited Overview and Research

[4] Now Finance - Haidilao’s PE Plummets from Over 1000x to Over 10x

[5] Sina Finance - Hong Kong Catering Stocks Rally Collectively

[6] Xueqiu - Haidilao Stock Price and Valuation Data

[7] Tencent News - 2025 Catering Industry Summary


Disclaimer
: This report is for investment reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice. The stock market is risky, and investment requires caution.

Related Reading Recommendations
No recommended articles
Ask based on this news for deep analysis...
Alpha Deep Research
Auto Accept Plan

Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.