Analysis of Tianyue Advanced (688234)'s Strong Performance: TSMC's Earnings Ignite Semiconductor Rally, Divergence Between Fundamentals and Valuation Draws Attention

This analysis is based on public market information and internal analytical data, providing a comprehensive assessment of Tianyue Advanced (688234)'s strong performance today. As a leading silicon carbide semiconductor material enterprise, the company benefited from the overall rally in the semiconductor sector triggered by TSMC’s better-than-expected earnings, hitting the daily trading limit (+20%) intraday and setting a 52-week high [0][1]. Technically, the stock price shows a breakout pattern, with trading volume surging 117% above the average level, but both KDJ and RSI indicators signal overbought risks [0]. In terms of fundamentals, the company is currently in an “expectation-driven” phase—although its first three-quarter revenue fell 13.21% year-on-year and net profit plummeted 99.22%, the market is trading on the long-term growth expectations of silicon carbide in new energy vehicles and 5G fields, a feature reflected by its sky-high P/E valuation of 1445x [0]. Based on a comprehensive judgment, short-term momentum is strong, but the risk of a technical pullback needs to be watched. It is recommended that investors distinguish between “theme speculation” and “value investment” and make decisions cautiously [0][1].

The direct trigger for Tianyue Advanced’s 20% surge today is

, which triggered a chain reaction across the entire semiconductor industry chain. According to reports from Yicai and Cailian Press, TSMC posted Q4 revenue of NT$1.046 trillion (approximately US$33.73 billion), up 20.5% year-on-year; net profit reached NT$505.7 billion (approximately US$16 billion), a 35% year-on-year surge hitting a record high [1][2]. More notably, TSMC management expects capital expenditure to grow 37% to US$56 billion in 2026 (a record high), and revealed that customers have sent strong demand signals, directly contacting the company to seek production capacity [1][2].

As the global leader in wafer foundry services, TSMC’s better-than-expected earnings directly ignited sentiment across the semiconductor sector. As a core supplier of silicon carbide (SiC) single crystal substrate materials, Tianyue Advanced is highly linked to the semiconductor industry chain, following the sector higher in early trading today and hitting the daily trading limit intraday [1][2]. The silicon carbide sector performed strongly overall today, with Tianyue Advanced showing obvious sector linkage effects with Tongfu Microelectronics (TFME), Yujing Co., Ltd., Sanan Optoelectronics, etc. [3]. The strong rally of multiple semiconductor-themed ETFs, such as the CSI STAR Market Semiconductor ETF (588170), further boosted sector enthusiasm [2].

Tianyue Advanced’s main business is the R&D, production, and sales of silicon carbide semiconductor materials, and it is one of the leading enterprises in the domestic silicon carbide substrate material sector. The company is categorized by the market under multiple hot concepts including the Huawei industry chain, third-generation semiconductors, semiconductors, silicon carbide, etc. [4]. From an industry chain perspective, silicon carbide materials are mainly used in downstream application scenarios such as new energy vehicles, charging piles, and 5G base stations, benefiting from the long-term growth logic of rising new energy vehicle penetration and 5G infrastructure construction.

However, it is important to clearly recognize that there is a significant divergence between the company’s current fundamentals and its stock price performance. According to the 2025 Q3 report, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.112 billion in the first three quarters, a 13.21% year-on-year decline; net profit attributable to shareholders was only RMB 1.1199 million, a sharp 99.22% year-on-year drop; non-recurring net profit was -RMB 29.7081 million, a 121.94% year-on-year decline [0][5]. The company’s latest quarterly EPS is -RMB 0.02, indicating it is currently in a loss-making state [0]. Although the company maintains a relatively stable gross profit margin of 19.07% and a debt ratio of 23.89% [0], the continuous decline in revenue and profit reflects that the company is facing significant operational pressure.

From a technical analysis perspective, Tianyue Advanced showed a typical breakout pattern today, but multiple indicators have issued overbought warning signals.

: The closing price today was RMB 111.19, with a 20% gain, successfully breaking through previous resistance levels and setting a 52-week high; trading volume reached 21.35 million shares, a 117% increase compared to the average daily volume of 9.83 million shares, indicating significantly increased capital participation [0]. Observing the moving average system, the 20-day moving average (RMB 91.35), 50-day moving average (RMB 84.81), and 200-day moving average (RMB 69.82) show a clear bullish alignment, and the stock price is far from each short-term moving average, indicating strong short-term upward momentum [0].

: In the KDJ indicator, the K value is 70.8, D value is 63.7, and J value is 84.8, with the J value entering the overbought zone [0]; RSI (14) is also in the overbought risk zone, technically requiring a pullback [0]. The MACD indicator shows a golden cross pattern, releasing a short-term bullish signal [0]. Notably, the company’s beta coefficient is only 0.07, with extremely low correlation to the broader market, meaning the company’s stock price is driven more by industry characteristics and market sentiment [0].

: The initial resistance level is RMB 111.19 (today’s high), the next upward target is RMB 116.94, and the short-term support level is RMB 93.95 [0]. Looking at historical performance, the stock has a 31.04% gain in 1 month, 47.64% in 3 months, 97.43% in 6 months, and 102.20% in 1 year, showing a continuous upward trend [0].

From a market sentiment perspective, Tianyue Advanced is currently receiving active attention from institutional capital. The China AMC CSI STAR Market Semiconductor Materials and Equipment ETF has a heavy position in the stock, with the fund’s scale reaching RMB 2.79 billion [4][6]. Looking at institutional ratings, 3 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, of which 2 gave a “Buy” rating and 1 gave an “Overweight” rating, showing a unanimously optimistic attitude [4].

However, capital flow data shows some divergence. Between January 13 and 14, main capital showed a net outflow [5][6], but today’s surge indicates a reversal in capital sentiment. Notably, retail capital had a net inflow of RMB 41.56 million on January 14 [5], indicating a phenomenon of retail investors chasing the rally; at the same time, there was a net outflow of 44,500 shares in short selling on January 13 [6], and the weakening of short-selling pressure may have amplified upward momentum. Sharp stock price volatility is also a risk characteristic—the stock fell 5.42% in a single day on January 13 [4][6], with large intraday fluctuations.

Tianyue Advanced is currently in a typical “theme investment” phase rather than a “value investment” phase. The market’s pricing of the stock is not based on current performance—its valuation levels of 1445x P/E and 29.88x P/S [0] reflect a premium from investors’ long-term growth expectations for silicon carbide in new energy vehicles, charging piles, 5G, and other fields. This means the company needs time to verify the arrival of a performance inflection point, and until then, the stock price will be driven mainly by industry boom expectations and market sentiment.

From an investment logic perspective, investors need to clearly distinguish between two different investment paradigms: if it is theme investment based on the long-term growth logic of silicon carbide, the current valuation, although high, is logically consistent; if it is value investment based on fundamental improvement, the current financial data cannot support such a high valuation level [0][1]. This divergence means that once industry expectations are disappointed or market sentiment shifts, the company’s stock price may face significant pullback pressure.

TSMC’s better-than-expected earnings have sent a positive signal that the semiconductor industry cycle inflection point is approaching. TSMC’s advanced processes at 7nm and below contribute 77% of its revenue, with strong AI-related demand [1][2], indicating that downstream chip demand is recovering. For Tianyue Advanced, the overall improvement in semiconductor industry sentiment will directly drive demand growth for silicon carbide materials.

However, it should be noted that the semiconductor industry has obvious cyclical characteristics, with uncertainties in downstream demand. Silicon carbide materials are mainly used in power devices, and their demand is closely related to new energy vehicle sales, charging infrastructure construction, and 5G base station deployment progress. The growth rhythm of these downstream sectors will directly affect the pace of Tianyue Advanced’s performance realization [0][1].

The core support for the current valuation is the market’s high expectations for the future rather than current performance. A 1445x P/E means that even under optimistic expectations, the market will need to wait a very long time for the valuation to return to a reasonable range [0]. This high valuation state has minimal error tolerance—any information that falls short of expectations may lead to sharp stock price adjustments.

But from another perspective, the high valuation also reflects the market’s recognition of the company’s technical barriers and industry status. As a leader in silicon carbide substrate materials, Tianyue Advanced has scarcity against the backdrop of domestic substitution. If the company can seize the opportunity of the semiconductor industry recovery, achieve technological breakthroughs and capacity expansion, performance growth may gradually digest the current high valuation.

: The 1445x P/E valuation is severely detached from current fundamentals; once market expectations are disappointed or sentiment shifts, the stock price may face a significant pullback [0]. The current stock price is fully supported by expectations, with minimal error tolerance.

: The company’s first three-quarter net profit was only RMB 1.1199 million, non-recurring net profit was negative, and revenue continued to decline [0][5]. There is significant uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of profit improvement. If the company cannot prove a performance inflection point in the next few quarters, market confidence may waver.

: The KDJ indicator’s J value of 84.8 and RSI in the overbought zone both signal short-term pullback needs [0]. At the same time, the stock price is far from the short-term moving average (20-day MA at RMB 91.35), technically requiring a pullback to confirm support.

: The stock fell 5.42% in a single day on January 13 [4][6], with sharp intraday fluctuations, indicating it is a high-volatility stock, not suitable for investors with low risk tolerance.

: The semiconductor industry has obvious cyclical characteristics, with uncertainties in downstream demand (new energy vehicles, 5G, etc.), which may affect the company’s performance [0].

: TSMC’s better-than-expected earnings have released a signal that the semiconductor industry cycle inflection point is approaching [1][2]. With the continuous growth of AI and high-performance computing demand, the chip manufacturing industry chain is expected to usher in a new boom cycle, and demand for silicon carbide materials is expected to benefit.

: Against the backdrop of semiconductor self-reliance and controllability, there is strong demand for domestic substitution of silicon carbide substrate materials. As a domestic leading enterprise, Tianyue Advanced is expected to benefit from this structural opportunity.

: Institutional capital, such as the China AMC CSI STAR Market Semiconductor Materials and Equipment ETF, has a heavy position in the stock [4][6], providing a certain degree of capital support for the company’s stock price.

: Today’s volume-driven breakout to a 52-week high technically confirms the validity of the medium-term upward trend [0]. If trading volume can be maintained, the stock price is expected to challenge the next target level of RMB 116.94.

Dimension	Rating	Explanation
Catalyst Sustainability	⭐⭐⭐	TSMC’s earnings positive news is fermenting in the short term, but sustainability depends on downstream demand verification
Capital Sentiment	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Today’s volume-driven breakout has boosted short-term capital sentiment, but chasing highs risks need to be watched
Fundamental Support	⭐	Current fundamentals are weak, mainly driven by expectations
Technical Pattern	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Breakout pattern confirmed, but overbought pressure needs to be digested
Valuation Rationality	⭐	Valuation is extremely high, detached from fundamentals

Tianyue Advanced (688234)'s strong performance today is mainly driven by

, and as a leader in silicon carbide substrate materials, the company directly benefited from this improvement in industry sentiment [0][1][2]. Technically, the stock price shows an effective breakout pattern with significantly increased trading volume, but indicators such as KDJ and RSI signal short-term overbought risks [0]. Fundamentally, the company is currently in an “expectation-driven” phase—revenue and profit data are under pressure, and the 1445x P/E valuation reflects the market’s premium for long-term growth expectations of silicon carbide [0].

Investors should pay attention to the following key information points: First, TSMC’s earnings positive news provides short-term support for the semiconductor sector, but sustainability depends on actual demand verification [1][2]; Second, the timeline for the company’s fundamental improvement is uncertain, and continuous tracking of the performance inflection point is required; Third, there is a technical need for a pullback, and it is recommended to set a reasonable stop-loss level; Fourth, the current valuation is fully supported by expectations, and investors need to distinguish between the two different investment logics of theme speculation and value investment [0][1].

: Initial resistance level (broken through) at RMB 111.19, short-term upward target at RMB 116.94, pullback support level at RMB 93.95, 20-day moving average support at RMB 91.35 [0]. For holders, it is recommended to set a 5-8% dynamic stop-loss level to protect profits; for onlookers, it is recommended to wait for an opportunity to buy near the 20-day moving average after a pullback rather than chasing highs [0].

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database - Market Data and Technical Indicators

[1] Yicai - Profit Hits Record High, TSMC’s Earnings Ignite Chip Stock Rally

[2] Cailian Press - TSMC’s Strong Earnings Drive US-listed Chip Stocks Higher

[3] Eastmoney - Silicon Carbide Sector Analysis

[4] Securities Star - Analysis of Main Capital and Institutional Holdings in Tianyue Advanced

[5] iFind - Tianyue Advanced Q3 Financial Report Data

[6] NetEase Finance - Analysis of Individual Stock Capital Flow of Tianyue Advanced