Reddit User Makes $250k Bet on GTBIF Ahead of Potential Cannabis Rescheduling

This analysis is based on a Reddit post published on November 12, 2025 [7], where a user announced a $250,000 speculative bet on Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) stock. The bet is predicated on the expectation that former President Trump will reschedule cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III before the upcoming midterm elections, which the user views as a strategic political move that could trigger a 2x return on investment.

Green Thumb Industries Inc. represents one of the leading national cannabis consumer packaged goods companies in the United States, owning the RISE retail store brand [0]. The company has demonstrated strong operational momentum in 2025, with the stock price recovering significantly from earlier lows to approximately $7.70 per share, representing a market capitalization of around $1.6 billion [0].

The company’s Q3 2025 earnings report exceeded analyst expectations, with revenue reaching $291.37 million versus the projected $290.98 million, and earnings per share of $0.04 beating the $0.03 consensus estimate [0][4]. This performance has contributed to GTBIF’s relative outperformance within the cannabis sector, attracting institutional investors including Tidal Investments and Citadel Advisors [0].

The broader industrial cannabis market provides compelling long-term growth prospects, with projections indicating expansion to $196.40 billion by 2034, representing a robust compound annual growth rate of 11.53% [2]. This growth trajectory supports the investment thesis for established players like GTBIF, which operates multiple established brands including &Shine, Beboe, Dogwalkers, and Doctor Solomon’s [0].

However, the company faces significant near-term challenges. Recent analyst sentiment has turned somewhat cautious, with Cormark issuing weak earnings estimates for FY2026 [5]. The stock’s current valuation reflects high market expectations, with a P/E ratio of 45.71 that could be vulnerable to disappointment [0].

The Reddit user’s investment strategy is heavily dependent on a specific regulatory catalyst - cannabis rescheduling from Schedule I to Schedule III. This policy change would have significant implications for the industry, potentially improving banking access, tax treatment under Section 280E, and institutional investment flows. The timing expectation (before midterms) suggests a belief in the political calculus driving this decision.

From a technical perspective, GTBIF is currently trading below its 50-day moving average of $7.83 but above its 200-day moving average of $6.76, indicating some short-term weakness but maintaining an overall upward trend [0]. The stock experienced a gap down on November 11, 2025, according to MarketBeat reporting [1], suggesting some recent selling pressure.

The political landscape presents considerable uncertainty, with Republican support for cannabis legalization having declined to 40% [0]. This creates a challenging environment for the anticipated regulatory change, particularly given the assumption that Trump would drive this reform before midterms.

GTBIF’s premium valuation (P/E 45.71) reflects both its market leadership position and investor optimism about regulatory reform [0]. However, this elevated multiple creates significant downside risk if the anticipated catalyst fails to materialize on the expected timeline. The company’s strong fundamentals, including low debt levels and healthy cash flow mentioned in the original post, provide some downside protection but may not be sufficient to offset a complete regulatory disappointment.

• Regulatory Timing Risk
  : The entire investment thesis hinges on cannabis rescheduling occurring before midterms. Political dynamics could delay or prevent this catalyst entirely
• Valuation Risk
  : At a P/E ratio of 45.71, the stock is priced for perfection and could face significant downside if earnings growth slows or regulatory catalysts fail to materialize [0]
• Political Headwinds
  : Declining Republican support for cannabis legalization (40%) creates uncertainty around the assumed political calculus [0]
• Market Volatility
  : The stock recently gapped down on November 11, 2025, indicating some near-term technical weakness [1]

• Regulatory Catalyst Success
  : If cannabis rescheduling occurs as anticipated, the stock could experience significant upside, potentially validating the 2x return expectation
• Industry Growth
  : The projected growth of the industrial cannabis market to $196.40B by 2034 provides long-term tailwinds for established players [2]
• Market Leadership
  : GTBIF’s strong brand portfolio and retail presence position it well to benefit from industry consolidation and market expansion
• Institutional Interest
  : Current institutional holdings suggest growing mainstream acceptance of cannabis investments [0]

Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) represents a speculative investment opportunity driven primarily by potential regulatory catalysts rather than current fundamentals. The company’s strong Q3 2025 performance, with revenue of $291.37M and EPS of $0.04 beating expectations, demonstrates operational competence [0][4]. However, the stock’s premium valuation at a 45.71 P/E ratio suggests these strengths are already well-reflected in the current price [0].

The $250k bet discussed on Reddit exemplifies the high-risk, high-reward nature of regulatory-driven investment strategies in the cannabis sector. While the long-term industry outlook remains robust with projected growth to $196.40B by 2034 [2], near-term returns appear highly dependent on specific political developments that remain uncertain.

Investors should be aware that recent analyst sentiment has turned somewhat cautious, with Cormark issuing weak FY2026 earnings estimates [5], and the stock experiencing technical weakness with a recent gap down [1]. The combination of high valuation expectations and regulatory timing uncertainty creates a risk-reward profile that may not be suitable for all market participants.