In-Depth Analysis of Roborock's 149% Surge in Inventory Turnover Days: Interpretation of Overseas Stock-Up Strategies

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According to the latest financial data [0], Roborock (688169.SS) has seen a significant growth in inventory scale:

Time Period	Inventory Scale (CNY 100 million)	YoY Growth Rate	Inventory Turnover Days
2024Q1	8.8	15%	c. 45 days
2024Q4	14.9	88%	c. 68 days
2025Q1	25.9	194%	c. 112 days
2025Q2	31.1	172%	c. 135 days
2025Q3	37.16	149%	c. 118 days

Inventory turnover days peaked at 135 days in Q2 2025, representing an approximately from normal levels; although it fell back to 118 days in Q3, it remains at a historical high.

Roborock launched the restructuring of its European market channel system in 2024, which is the

driving the inventory surge [1][2].

• Revenue can be recognized once goods are delivered to the port
• Most inventory pressure is borne by agents
• The company’s stock-up cycle is short, with fast turnover

• Revenue can only be recognized after goods are shipped overseas, delivered to users, and confirmed by users
• The company must bear full inventory responsibilities throughout the process
• The stock-up chain is significantly lengthened

“Under the direct sales model, revenue can only be recognized after goods are shipped overseas, delivered to users, and confirmed by users via click. This model will undoubtedly delay the recognition of a portion of revenue.”[1]

As of the end of 2024, the number of distributors of Roborock has

, significantly expanding its channel coverage [2].

The gradual relocation of capacity for the U.S. market from China to Vietnam is the

driving the inventory surge [1][3].

Market	Tariff for Products Made in China	Tariff for Products Made in Vietnam	Difference
U.S. Market	c. 55%	c. 10%	45% Savings

To prepare for major promotions in Europe and the U.S., the company has leveraged Vietnam’s tariff advantages to stock up in advance:

• Starting from Q2 2025, the production capacity of the Vietnam factory has continued to ramp up
• To meet North American origin certification requirements, local raw materials in Vietnam need to be procured
• The company has made sufficient preparations in raw material procurement [1]

Second-half major promotion periods such as Black Friday and Christmas are traditional peak stock-up seasons [1][4].

Roborock stated clearly in its earnings conference:

“In 2025, to better respond to global major promotions, the company has sufficient stock in all regions, adjusted and restocked quickly according to sales performance during the promotion period, and achieved good results during Black Friday.”[4]

• Concentrated stock-up 2-3 months in advance
• Stock-up volume needs to cover 1.5-2 times the peak sales volume
• Inventory is gradually digested after the promotion ends

The proportion of Roborock’s overseas revenue has continued to increase [0][5]:

Year	Overseas Revenue (CNY 100 million)	Proportion of Total Revenue
2022	-	52.7%
2023	-	48.9%
2024	63.88	53.6%
Jan-Sep 2025	65.46	54.3%

• In-depth cooperation with mainstream e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Shopee, and Lazada
• Coverage of approximately 1,400 Target stores (over 90% of total stores)
• Continuous negotiations with new channels such as Costco and Walmart
• The proportion of offline channels in Europe has increased from 10% to
  over 20%
  [1]

Roborock is transitioning from a single robotic vacuum cleaner product to a

of "robotic vacuum cleaners + wet/dry vacuums + washing machines + robotic lawn mowers" [2][6]:

• Rapid growth of the wet/dry vacuum business
• Continuous investment in the washer-dryer combo business
• Robotic lawn mower to be launched by the end of 2025

Expansion into new categories requires

, further pushing up the inventory scale.

From a multi-dimensional analysis, Roborock’s inventory surge is a strategic manifestation of the company

, rather than a strategic miscalculation:

Despite the surge in inventory scale,

[1]:

Company	Inventory Turnover Rate in H1 2025
Roborock	1.9x
Competitors (e.g., Ecovacs)	1.67x

“Although Roborock’s inventory scale surged 194% YoY in Q1 2025, its turnover rate remained flat compared to the same period last year, indicating that shipment volume has achieved simultaneous high-speed growth.”[2]

Despite high inventory levels, the losses caused by inventory backlog at Roborock are much lower than those of its peers [1]:

Company	Inventory Impairment Loss in H1 2025
Roborock	CNY 51.28 million
Competitors	CNY 134 million (all from inventory impairment)

This indicates that Roborock has the ability to

.

As the global sales champion of robotic vacuum cleaners, Roborock held a

in H1 2025, firmly ranking first in the industry [5]:

Market	Roborock’s Ranking
North America	1st
Northern Europe	1st
Germany	1st
Australia	1st
Turkey	1st
South Korea	1st
Japan, Thailand, Vietnam	Market share over 20%

The net profit margin decreased from

in 2023 to in 2024, and further dropped to approximately in the first three quarters of 2025. This is part of the company’s strategy to [2][6]:

• Channel flattening reduces profit margins
• Saturated marketing enhances brand awareness
• Using price cuts to gain volume and squeeze competitors’ space

“Analysts from Kaiyuan Securities believe that the company’s voluntary abandonment of high net profit margins is to achieve better revenue and share growth & squeeze competitors’ space.”[2]

In the first three quarters of 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities of Roborock was

, in sharp contrast to the inflow of CNY 1.06 billion in the same period of 2024 [5].

• Inventory increased by CNY 2.29 billion
• Increase in selling expenses
• Increase in R&D expenses

If sales fall short of expectations during major promotions in Europe and the U.S., it may lead to:

• Extended inventory backlog period
• Increased capital occupation costs
• Increased risk of inventory impairment

During the process of phasing out the agency model, the company faces:

• Short-term increase in operating costs
• Increased investment in new channel development
• Time required to rebuild end-user control

Institution	Rating	Core View
Bank of America	Buy	Reiterates Buy rating, expects 2025 revenue to reach CNY 17.67 billion
Zhongtai Securities	Buy	Overall enters inflection point for profit margin improvement
Kaiyuan Securities	Buy	Net profit margin will rebound in Q3
Pacific Securities	Buy	Sustained high growth on the revenue side, upward inflection point for profitability is expected
Huaxin Securities	Buy	Accelerated expansion in emerging markets

Indicator	2025	2026	2027
Revenue (CNY 100 million)	176.7	245.5	-
Net Attributable Profit (CNY 100 million)	18-19.8	26-29.5	32-37.2
EPS (CNY)	-	12.03 (+56.9%)	-
PE	27-28x	17-20x	14-17x

1. The surge in inventory turnover days is a phased result of channel transformation and capacity layout
   , not a strategic miscalculation
2. Although the transition to the direct sales model is under short-term pressure, it will help improve channel control and profit margins in the long run
3. The ramping up of production capacity at the Vietnam factory will continue to reduce tariff costs and improve profitability
4. Industry competition is easing, and the profit margin of the leading company is expected to stabilize

• Risk of raw material price increases
• Risk of overseas market expansion falling short of expectations
• Risk of market demand falling short of expectations due to changes in the macroeconomic environment
• Risk of channel transformation progress falling short of expectations

• Whether inventory turnover days in Q4 will drop significantly
• Whether net cash flow from operating activities can turn positive
• Whether net profit margin will rebound as expected by institutions
• Progress of Hong Kong IPO and use of proceeds

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[0] Jinling API - Roborock (688169.SS) Financial Data and Company Profile
[1] Sina Finance - "Channel Transformation Drives Efficiency Leap: Roborock Resolves Growth Challenges with Efficient Inventory Turnover" (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2025-09-28/doc-infrzuim8871898.shtml)
[2] Jiemian News - "Roborock’s ‘Retreat to Advance’: Profit Inflection Point Looms Amid Channel Restructuring and Saturated Marketing" (https://www.jiemian.com/article/13112543.html)
[3] Securities Times - "Technology and Channels Drive Roborock’s 60.71% YoY Revenue Growth in Q3" (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3461689.html)
[4] 36Kr - "Roborock Responds to Plan for Secondary Listing in Hong Kong" (https://m.36kr.com/p/3617324476924931)
[5] iFinD - "Roborock Submits Second Listing Application: Market Cap Shrinks by Over 50% in 4 Years, Can It Regain ‘Sweeping Robot Champion’ Glory in Hong Kong?" (http://m.10jqka.com.cn/20260112/c673941473.shtml)
[6] Eastmoney - Roborock Company Announcements and Research Report Data (http://quote.eastmoney.com/kcb/688169.html)