TSMC (TSM) Technical Analysis and HPC Business Evaluation Report

Now I will provide you with a comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis report.

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Indicator	Value	Interpretation
MACD Line	11.3344	Above the Signal Line, indicating bullish momentum
Signal Line	8.7005	Below the MACD Line, confirming an uptrend
MACD Histogram	+2.6339	Positive value expanding, bullish strength increasing
Crossover Status	Golden Cross	Golden cross formed on December 24, 2025

Signal Type	Date	Price	Subsequent Performance
Golden Cross 🟢	2025-11-26	$289.96	17.9% increase
Death Cross 🔴	2025-12-16	$286.87	Continued to rise after a short pullback
Golden Cross 🟢	2025-12-24	$298.80	14.4% increase

: Currently in a clear golden cross state, with the MACD histogram continuing to expand, indicating strengthening upward momentum. After the golden cross signal was triggered around $298, the stock price has risen to the $341 level [0].

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According to the latest earnings data [1][2]:

Indicator	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Quarter-over-Quarter Change	2024	Year-over-Year Change
HPC Revenue as % of Total	55%	53%	+2pp	~50%	+5pp
HPC Revenue Quarter-over-Quarter Growth	+4%	-	+4pp	-	-
HPC Annual Revenue Growth	-	-	-	-	+48%

Indicator	Data	Industry Position
Q4 Total Revenue	$33.73 Billion	20.5% year-over-year growth, hitting an all-time high
Gross Margin	62.3%	3.3 percentage points year-over-year increase
AI/HPC as % of Revenue	58%	Approximately $7.1 Billion in annual revenue
2026 Revenue Guidance	+30% YoY	Slightly higher than 2025’s 31.6%

:

1. Base Effect
   : The HPC business experienced explosive growth from 2024 to 2025 (+74% YoY in Q2 2025) [3], and the current growth slowdown is a normal phenomenon after a larger base.

2. Absolute Growth
   : The HPC business grew
   48%
   for the full year 2025, and its proportion increased from approximately 50% in 2024 to
   58%
   , indicating that HPC remains the core growth driver.

3. Management Confidence
   : CEO C.C. Wei stated on the earnings call:

“We have rigorously verified the authenticity of AI demand, and conversations with our customers and their end customers are satisfactory.”
“AI is still in the early stages, and we expect AI accelerator revenue to maintain a 57% compound annual growth rate through 2029.”[2]

4. CapEx Validation
   : 2026 capital expenditure guidance is
   $5.2-56.0 Billion
   (30% increase from 2025), indicating management’s strong confidence in medium- to long-term demand [1].

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Dimension	Signal	Strength
MACD	Golden cross state, bullish alignment	🟢 Bullish
Price Position	Above MA50 ($299), approaching MA200 ($351)	🟡 Neutral-Bullish
RSI	76.58 (Overbought Zone)	🔴 Short-Term Risk
Fundamentals	Revenue growth +30%, increasing HPC proportion	🟢 Bullish
Analyst Ratings	70% Buy, average target price $405	🟢 Bullish

. The reasons are as follows:

1. Clear bullish MACD signal
   : Currently in a bullish pattern after the golden cross, with a cumulative increase of over 14% since the golden cross on December 24, 2025, showing strong upward momentum [0].

2. Growth slowdown is expected
   : Analysts generally expect 2026 revenue growth to slightly decline from 31.6% to approximately 30%, which is a normal slowdown under a high base, not a demand inflection point [1].

3. HPC remains the growth engine
   : Although the year-over-year growth rate has retreated from its peak,
   the absolute value is still expanding
   , and its proportion continues to rise to over 55%.

4. Valuation still has support
   : The current P/E ratio is 28.4x, below the historical average, and the average analyst target price of $405 implies approximately 18% upside potential [4].

• Short-term overbought risk
  : RSI(14) = 76.58, caution against technical pullbacks
• Elevated valuation
  : Only 2.8% below the 52-week high of $351.33
• Macro uncertainty
  : Monitor the sustainability of AI capital expenditures

Scenario	Recommendation
Holders	Hold primarily, closely monitor performance at the $351 resistance level
Non-holders	Consider entering positions on a pullback to the $313-320 support zone
Risk-averse investors	Wait for RSI to fall below 60 or a breakout above $351 before entering

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[0] Jinling AI - TSM Real-Time Quotes and Technical Analysis Data (2026-01-16)
[1] Benzinga - “Taiwan Semiconductor Analysts Raise Their Forecasts After Q4 Earnings” (2026-01-16)
[2] MBI Deep Dives - “TSMC’s Green Signal” (2026-01-16)
[3] Seeking Alpha - TSMC HPC Revenue Analysis Chart (2025-10)
[4] Jinling AI - TSM Company Profile and Analyst Ratings (2026-01-16)