Analysis of the Failure of Kouzijiao's "Disk-in-Disk" Model and the Timeframe for Banquet Channel Reconstruction

Based on the collected materials, I will provide a detailed analysis of the time required for Kouzijiao to reconstruct its banquet channels after the failure of its “Disk-in-Disk” model.

Kouzijiao’s “Disk-in-Disk” marketing model began to show signs of failure around

[1]. This model, which once pioneered channel marketing for Anhui liquors, gradually lost its effectiveness during the industry adjustment period and amid intensified competition.

1. Replication of the Competitive Model
   : During 2003-2015, regional liquor enterprises from other provinces followed and imitated Kouzijiao’s “Disk-in-Disk” model, leading to intensified competition in the catering channel[1]
2. Emergence of Resource Bottlenecks
   : Due to limited hotel resources, various liquor enterprises competed to increase investment in expenses, creating a bottleneck for the development of the “Disk-in-Disk” model[1]
3. Rise of Local Liquors
   : Local famous liquors rose in their respective local markets, and Kouzijiao, as an external famous liquor, saw its market share gradually eroded[1]

According to industry research reports, channel reconstruction in the liquor industry is expected to take

to complete[2][3]. This cycle includes:

• Recovery of Consumption Scenarios and Reconstruction of Consumer Confidence
  : Takes a relatively long time
• Price System Restoration
  : Reshaping the channel price system requires sustained investment
• Activation of Terminal Sales
  : The shift from a “stock-pushing logic” to a “sales-driving logic” requires an adaptation period

: According to research analysis from Guosen Securities, Kouzijiao . It is expected that after approximately of channel model adjustments, it may enter a positive feedback loop for product structure upgrading by [1].

: As of 2025, Kouzijiao is still in the critical stage of reform. The effects of channel reform have yet to be seen, market acceptance of new products remains low, and there is still room for improvement in distribution coverage[4].

• Severe Internal Competition in the Anhui Market
  : The Anhui liquor market faces extremely fierce competition with a large number of brands[4]
• Slow Consumption Recovery
  : The consumption recovery of liquor brands requires time[4]
• Decline in Banquet Scenarios
  : The number of banquets such as college admission banquets and the demand for liquor at such events have declined significantly[4]

• Historical Burden of the Large Distributor System
  : The large distributor system that Kouzijiao has long relied on makes it difficult to advance channel reforms[1]
• Single Product Structure
  : The slow process of high-end transformation is coupled with lagging channel model transformation[4]
• Outdated Brand Perception
  : There is a challenge of insufficient brand value support in the high-end price segment[4]

• Continuous Expansion of Gujing Gongjiu
  : Gujing’s market share in the province reaches 36%, far exceeding Kouzijiao’s 9%[5]
• Rise of Yingjia Gongjiu
  : Its Cave-aged series has shown significant development momentum in markets such as Hefei and Lu’an[5]
• National Famous Liquors Moving Downmarket
  : National famous liquors such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu have continued to increase their market share in Anhui[5]

1. Channel Model Transformation
   : Shift to manufacturer-led channel expense investment, and strengthen the cultivation of group purchase channels[1]
2. Organizational Structure Adjustment
   : Increase the on-ground marketing team and establish a Hefei Marketing Center[1]
3. New Product Strategic Layout
   : Launch new products such as Jianxiang 518 to lay out the mid-to-high-end market[1]
4. Channel Sinking Strategy
   : Promote channel transformation, intensive cultivation, and expand into county and township-level markets[4]

• Distributors’ willingness to make payments has decreased, and distributor behavior has shifted from prioritizing “stocking up” to prioritizing “clearing inventory”[4]
• Contract liabilities have continued to decline, reflecting insufficient confidence in the channel[4]
• Inventory scale has risen to RMB 6.218 billion, creating significant inventory pressure[4]

After the failure of Kouzijiao’s “Disk-in-Disk” model, the reconstruction of banquet channels is

. According to industry analysis:

• Basic Recovery Period
  : 2-3 years to complete basic channel model transformation
• Reconstruction and Improvement Period
  : 3-5 years to achieve systematic recovery of banquet channels
• Competitive Recovery
  : Approximately 5 years are required to re-establish effective competitive advantages

It should be noted that since Kouzijiao is facing a “comprehensive crisis where the dividends of the old model are exhausted and it is disconnected from the new consumption context”[4], the reconstruction cycle may be longer than that of ordinary liquor enterprises. Industry analysts point out that regional liquor enterprises with weak brand power will face

in stock competition[4].

---

[1] Guosen Securities - In-Depth Research Report on Kouzijiao (603589.SH)

[2] Jiance Guanjiu - From Volume Decline to Quality Reconstruction: The Logic of Value Return in China’s Liquor Industry in 2026

[3] Cailianshe - Price Inversion! The Liquor Industry Ends 2025 with Hardship

[4] 36Kr - “Third-Ranked Anhui Liquor” May See Net Profit Halved; High-End Liquor Is Unsellable

[5] Soochow Securities - In-Depth Research Report on Gujing Gongjiu (000596)