Long-Term Impact Assessment of U.S. Chip Tariff Policies on the Global Semiconductor Industry Chain and Valuation of Major Chip Stocks

Based on the collected data and analysis, I will present a systematic and comprehensive research report to you.

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The White House officially announced on January 14, 2026, that it would impose a 25% ad valorem tariff on certain imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and their derivatives starting from January 15[1][2]. The policy was introduced under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, implementing trade intervention on the grounds of ‘national security’[3].

• Specific Advanced Computing Chips
  : Products meeting the following parameters—Total Processing Performance (TPP) of 14000-17500 with DRAM bandwidth of 4500-5000GB/s; or TPP of 20800-21100 with DRAM bandwidth of 5800-6200GB/s[1]
• Affected Products
  : High-end AI chips such as NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X[1][2]
• Exemption Scenarios
  : 8 scenarios including U.S. data center construction and operation, R&D activities, startup applications, consumer sectors, industrial production, and public sector projects[1]

Time Node	Policy Development
2022	The CHIPS and Science Act attracted industrial chain reshoring with $52.7 billion in subsidies
2023	Frequent upgrades to export controls against China
April 2025	The U.S. Department of Commerce launched a Section 232 national security trade investigation
August 2025	Trump proposed a radical 100% tariff idea
December 22, 2025	The Secretary of Commerce submitted the Section 232 semiconductor investigation report
January 15, 2026	The 25% tariff officially took effect[1][3]

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The current tariff only covers a ‘very narrow category of semiconductors’[2], primarily targeting AI chips produced by NVIDIA and AMD in Taiwan, imported into the U.S., and then re-exported to China. According to the assessment of the South Korean government, the immediate impact of this policy on its domestic chip industry is limited[3].

As the world’s most advanced wafer foundry, TSMC occupies an irreplaceable position in AI chip manufacturing. Its earnings report released on January 15, 2026, shows that key metrics of its Arizona wafer fab are approaching the advanced manufacturing level in Taiwan, and its backend packaging and testing supply chain partners are considering expanding their U.S. layout[4]. TSMC management clearly stated on a conference call: , supporting its aggressive investment strategy[4].

• Upstream Equipment Enterprises
  : Face soaring import costs for components
• Midstream Manufacturing Enterprises
  : Profit margins are compressed; wafer foundries without production capacity in the U.S. face increased export costs
• Downstream End Markets
  : Industries such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles bear cost pressures; the average price of laptops may rise, and the proportion of semiconductor costs in smart electric vehicles will increase[3]

Currently, U.S. companies NVIDIA and AMD have chip design capabilities, but the manufacturing capacity of advanced computing chips is mainly held by TSMC[1]. This highly globalized division of labor pattern faces pressure from policy restructuring:

1. Policy Uncertainty Risk
   : The volatility of U.S. policies is reflected not only in tariff rate adjustments but also in the arbitrariness of rules—the government has stated that it will update export control rules ‘at least annually’[3]
2. Disadvantage in Factory Construction Costs
   : According to Boston Consulting Group’s calculations, the 10-year total cost of ownership of new wafer fabs in the U.S. is more than 30% higher than that of similar factories in Taiwan, China and South Korea[3]
3. Phase 2 Risks
   : If no agreement is reached within 180 days, a broader tariff policy may be launched[1]

• On January 13, 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce clearly announced the extension of anti-dumping duties on solar-grade polysilicon originating from the U.S. and South Korea for five years[5]
• Key Developments
  : According to reports, China’s customs has blocked the shipment of NVIDIA H200 chips to China, and related suppliers have suspended production[6]

The U.S. tariff control on core AI chips further highlights the importance of China achieving supply chain autonomy, bringing a golden window for domestic substitution for Chinese enterprises[3]. The proportion of direct exports to the U.S. for most Chinese enterprises is less than 1%, so the overall impact is relatively manageable[3].

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Financial Dimension	Assessment Result
Financial Stance	Neutral - Maintains balanced accounting practices[7]
Debt Risk	Low Risk - Controllable leverage level[7]
Free Cash Flow	$60.853 billion (latest fiscal year)[7]
Net Profit Margin	53.01% (TTM)[8]
Operating Profit Margin	58.84% (TTM)[8]
Current Ratio	4.47[8]

Business Segment	Revenue	Proportion
Data Center	$41.1 billion	87.9%
Gaming	$4.29 billion	9.2%
Professional Visualization	$0.601 billion	1.3%
Automotive	$0.586 billion	1.3%
OEM and Other	$0.173 billion	0.4%[8]

U.S.: 50.2%, Singapore: 21.7%, Taiwan: 18.2%, China: 5.9%, Rest of Americas: 3.9%[8]

Financial Dimension	Assessment Result
Financial Stance	Conservative - High depreciation/capital expenditure ratio, with room for improvement in reported earnings[7]
Debt Risk	Low Risk[7]
Free Cash Flow	$109.758 billion (latest fiscal year)[7]
P/E Ratio	26.26x (TTM)[9]
P/S Ratio	11.84x (TTM)[9]

TSM’s free cash flow scale is significantly higher than NVIDIA’s, with strong financial strength. As the leading wafer foundry, its core position in the AI chip supply chain is irreplaceable.

Financial Dimension	Assessment Result
Financial Stance	Aggressive - Low depreciation/capital expenditure ratio, limited upside potential for reported earnings[7]
Debt Risk	Low Risk[7]
Free Cash Flow	$2.405 billion (latest fiscal year)[7]

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Relative to Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$67.43	-63.8%
Base Scenario	$85.00	-54.4%
Optimistic Scenario	$111.50	-40.1%
Probability-Weighted Value	$87.98	-52.8% [10]

Metric	Conservative	Base	Optimistic
Revenue Growth Rate	0.0%	67.3%	70.3%
EBITDA Margin	42.4%	44.6%	46.8%
Terminal Growth Rate	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
Cost of Equity	22.2%	20.7%	19.2%
WACC	22.2%	20.7%	19.2%[10]

• Beta Coefficient: 2.31 (High Volatility)[9]
• Risk-Free Rate Assumption: +4.5%
• Market Risk Premium: +7.0%

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• Current Price
  : $186.23 (January 16, 2026)[9]
• Technical Signals
  : Sideways consolidation - No MACD crossover (weak bias), KDJ bullish, RSI in normal range
• Trading Range Reference
  : $183.63 - $188.83[9]
• 1-Year Performance
  : +35.23%[8]
• 5-Year Performance
  : +1329.24%[8]

• Current Price
  : $342.40 (January 16, 2026)[9]
• Technical Signals
  : Sideways consolidation - MACD bullish, KDJ weak, RSI in overbought territory
• Trading Range Reference
  : $313.69 - $347.18[9]
• Beta Coefficient
  : 1.29 (Lower than NVIDIA, more moderate volatility)[9]

Stock	Closing Price	Gain
NVIDIA (NVDA)	$187.05	+2.13%
AMD	$227.92	+1.93%
TSMC (TSM)	$341.64	+4.44%
ASML	$1331.60	+5.37%[1]

Chip stocks rose instead of falling on the day, mainly due to:

1. Policy scope in line with expectations
   : The market has fully priced in the worst-case scenario
2. Clear exemption clauses
   : Chips for U.S. domestic use are exempt, reducing corporate concerns
3. TSM’s performance boost
   : Earnings report shows resilience in AI demand, with profits growing 35%[5]

Although direct data access is limited, judging from the market reaction after TSMC’s earnings report, the chip sector as a whole received support after the resilience of AI demand was verified. Super Micro Computer rose 11.01% on the day, reflecting the market’s optimistic sentiment towards AI server demand[4].

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The Trump administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to introduce tariff measures, which has triggered multiple lawsuits

• Lower courts have ruled that the relevant policies are illegal
• The U.S. Supreme Court did not issue a final ruling on January 14, 2026[1][3]

: If the Supreme Court rules the policy unconstitutional, it may affect the long-term stability of the tariffs.

• Next 90 days: The Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative need to report negotiation progress
• 180 days: If no agreement is reached, a broader Phase 2 tariff may be launched[1]

Economies with developed semiconductor industries such as Japan, South Korea, and the EU may all become negotiation partners to obtain tariff exemptions or quota arrangements.

• Extension of anti-dumping duties in sectors such as polysilicon
• Imports of H200 chips blocked - suppliers suspended production[6]

China may include U.S. chip enterprises in the Unreliable Entity List, or further restrict exports of key raw materials such as rare earths.

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Stock	Current P/E	5-Year Average P/E	Valuation Position	Analyst Consensus
NVDA	45.67x	~150x (peak)	Significantly Pulled Back	Buy (73.4% of analysts recommend)[8]
TSM	26.26x	~25-30x	Reasonable Range	Buy
AMD	Relatively High	Relatively High	Requires Specific Analysis	Buy

• NVIDIA’s P/S ratio has fallen from 200x in 2023 to approximately 24x currently[4]
• The return to rational valuation provides entry opportunities for long-term investors

• Tariff policy is vetoed by the court or significantly reduced in scope
• AI demand continues to grow strongly
• TSM’s U.S. production capacity ramps up smoothly
• Valuation recovers to historical median level

• Tariff policy remains unchanged, with no expansion of scope
• Enterprises hedge costs through supply chain adjustments
• Valuation of the chip sector remains at current levels
• Structural differentiation intensifies - advanced processes benefit, mature processes are under pressure

• Broader Phase 2 tariffs are launched
• China’s countermeasures escalate
• Uncertainty in the global trade system increases
• The central level of chip stock valuations shifts downward

1. TSMC (TSM)
   : Leading wafer foundry, irreplaceable in AI chip manufacturing, benefits from industrial chain restructuring
2. NVIDIA (NVDA)
   : Leading AI chip designer, valuation has fallen sharply, fundamentals continue to strengthen
3. Equipment and Materials
   : Equipment providers such as ASML and Applied Materials (AMAT) benefit from capacity expansion in the long term

• Closely monitor the progress of the Supreme Court’s ruling
• Track the dynamics of U.S.-China trade negotiations
• Monitor the ramp-up progress of TSM’s Arizona fab in the U.S.
• Assess the potential impact of China’s countermeasures on the supply chain

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The long-term impact of the U.S. 25% chip tariff policy can be assessed from the following dimensions:

1. Industrial Chain Level
   : Short-term shocks are manageable, but it will accelerate the process of ‘friendshoring’ and supply chain diversification. The disadvantage of building factories in the U.S. means the policy’s effect is limited, and it may push up global chip costs in the long run.

2. Enterprise Level
   : Leading companies such as NVIDIA and TSMC can partially hedge the impact through exemption clauses and supply chain adjustments; allied enterprises such as those in South Korea face policy uncertainty but have limited immediate impact.

3. Valuation Level
   : Current chip stock valuations have fallen sharply from their 2023-2024 peaks, and the resilience of AI demand and fundamental support provide protection for valuations.

4. Risk Level
   : Policy and legal risks, negotiation uncertainty, and China’s countermeasures are key variables that require continuous attention.

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[1] Caijing Magazine - “U.S. Implements 25% Import Tariff on Semiconductors, NVIDIA Bears the Cost First” (https://www.mycaijing.com/article/detail/562505)
[2] EET-China - “U.S. Announces: 25% Tariff on Semiconductors! Focus on Two Types of Chips” (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a467999.html)
[3] Sohu Technology - “U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Semiconductors! How Can China Seize Opportunities?” (https://m.sohu.com/a/976762971_610727)
[4] Digitimes - “TSMC chair confirms long-term AI demand and commitment to US expansion” (https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260116PD222/tsmc-demand-chairman-2026-expansion.html)
[5] Xinhua Finance - “Global Financial Market Morning Briefing: January 16” (https://m.cnfin.com/yw-lb//zixun/20260116/4366497_1.html)
[6] Financial Times - “Nvidia suppliers halt H200 output after China blocks chip shipments” (https://www.ft.com/content/02a3eb7c-684f-4e39-87b8-36e9595ef800)
[7] Jinling AI Financial Analysis API Data
[8] Jinling AI Company Overview Data - NVIDIA Corporation
[9] Jinling AI Technical Analysis API Data
[10] Jinling AI DCF Valuation Analysis API Data