Report on Investment Value Evaluation of Automakers Amid the Strong Growth Momentum of China's Vehicle Exports

Based on the above in-depth analysis, I will provide you with a detailed report on the investment value evaluation of automakers against the backdrop of China’s vehicle exports.

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In 2025, China’s vehicle exports exceeded the 7 million mark, achieving a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, setting the highest record for a single country’s annual vehicle exports in the history of the global automotive industry [1]. Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that from January to December 2025, China’s passenger vehicle exports reached 5.739 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%, among which new energy vehicle exports performed particularly prominently, with cumulative exports of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 2.422 million units, surging 86.2% year-on-year [2]. Against the backdrop of this historic growth, the rise of exports by Chinese domestic automakers has brought significant structural investment opportunities. This report will systematically evaluate the investment value of automakers from multiple dimensions including industry trends, corporate competitiveness, financial valuation, risk and return, etc.

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In 2025, China’s automotive industry delivered an impressive performance: the annual production and sales volume of vehicles reached 34.531 million units and 34.4 million units respectively, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years [3]. In terms of vehicle exports, the annual export volume reached 7.098 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, among which new energy vehicle exports reached 2.615 million units, becoming the core growth driver [4].

From the perspective of export structure, several notable features have emerged:

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have become the “key force” to break through overseas tariff barriers. From January to November 2025, exports of new energy vehicles reached 3.01 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 62%, among which the proportion of PHEVs in total vehicle exports reached 13%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year [5]. This change is attributed to the rapid adjustment of product structure by Chinese automakers, which precisely increased the deployment of PHEVs in response to the EU’s policy of imposing high tariffs on battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

The market space vacated by Russia, the traditional main market, has been quickly filled by emerging markets. Mexico, with an export volume of 573,500 units, became the largest single export market for Chinese vehicles for the first time, and the UAE ranked third with 465,500 units [6]. From January to November 2025, China’s vehicle exports to Africa grew by as much as 110% year-on-year, to Oceania by 69% year-on-year, and exports to Southeast Asia, Central and South America and other regions maintained a growth rate of over 40%.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the CPCA, pointed out that in 2025, the structure of vehicle export enterprises was optimized, the concentration of leading enterprises increased, domestic passenger vehicle automakers rose, and the advantages of industrial chain integration became prominent [7]. Among the top 10 vehicle export enterprises, Chery Automobile’s export volume reached 1.344 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.4%, accounting for 18.9% of total exports; BYD’s export growth rate was the fastest, reaching 1.054 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 140% [8].

The 2025 export rankings present a pattern of “one superpower and multiple strong players”:

Rank	Automaker	Export Volume (10k units)	YoY Growth Rate	Features
1	BYD	99.0	144%	Topped the ranking for the first time, dual-driven by PHEV and BEV
2	Chery Automobile	134.4	17.4%	Ranked first in exports for 23 consecutive years
3	SAIC Motor	107.1	3.1%	MG brand performed prominently in Europe
4	Changan Automobile	63.7	18.9%	Deepal brand’s global layout
5	Great Wall Motors	50.6	11.68%	CKD exports accounted for 53.2%
6	Geely Automobile	42.0	-22%	In the pain period of new energy transformation
7	Leapmotor	6.7	839%	Explosive growth driven by cooperation with Stellantis

Leapmotor became the “growth champion” of the year with a year-on-year growth rate of 839%, and its export volume jumped from 7,140 units in 2024 to 67,052 units. This explosive growth is supported by both its innovative overseas expansion model and its full-stack self-developed capabilities [9].

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In 2025, BYD retained its title as China’s auto market champion with sales of 4.6024 million units, among which sales of battery electric vehicles reached 2.2567 million units, surpassing Tesla to top the global BEV sales ranking [10]. In overseas markets, BYD’s overseas sales exceeded 1 million units for the first time in 2025, reaching 1.0496 million units, representing a year-on-year surge of 145%, and its business has covered six continents and 119 countries and regions around the world [11].

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	USD 86.339 billion	First in the industry
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)	22.79x	Moderately low
Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)	3.98x	Moderate
ROE	17.62%	Excellent
Net Profit Margin	4.56%	Upper-mid level
Current Ratio	0.87	Tight liquidity

Based on the DCF model, the valuation range for BYD’s current price of $95.86 is as follows [12]:

• Conservative Scenario: $326.26 (+240.4% upside potential)
• Base Scenario: $2,916.91 (+2942.9% upside potential)
• Optimistic Scenario: $5,505.23 (+5643.0% upside potential)

1. Global expansion ambitions support valuation, the Szeged plant in Hungary is scheduled to start production in 2026
2. Dual layout of PHEV and BEV, precisely matching the needs of different markets
3. Vertical integration of the industrial chain, outstanding cost control capabilities
4. Leading technical strength, seizing the first-mover advantage in the intelligentization era

In 2025, Geely Automobile’s cumulative sales reached 3.0246 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 39%, exceeding its annual sales target of 3 million units. Among them, sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.6878 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 90%, and the Galaxy brand performed particularly well, with cumulative annual sales of 1.2358 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 150% [13]. However, Geely’s overseas exports faced challenges, with cumulative overseas sales of 420,000 units in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 22%.

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	USD 18.593 billion	Mid-sized
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)	10.28x	Highly attractive
Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)	1.76x	Low
ROE	17.38%	Excellent
Net Profit Margin	5.41%	Relatively high
EV/OCF	6.03x	Moderate

The valuation range for Geely Automobile’s current price of $17.13 is as follows [14]:

• Conservative Scenario: $95.46 (+457.3% upside potential)
• Base Scenario: $119.51 (+597.7% upside potential)
• Optimistic Scenario: $183.18 (+969.4% upside potential)

1. Valuation is at a historical low, with sufficient margin of safety
2. Galaxy brand’s high growth, strong product cycle
3. Continuous investment in intelligentization technology, forming synergy with Zeekr
4. Brands such as Volvo and Polestar provide high-end support

In 2025, SAIC Motor sold approximately 4.507 million vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, achieving its annual sales target. Overseas market sales reached 1.071 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and cumulative overseas sales have exceeded 6 million units [15]. It released the overseas strategy “Glocal” (Global + Local), promoting the upgrade from product export to value chain export. In the European market, SAIC’s MG brand sold over 300,000 units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 30%.

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	USD 17.231 billion	Mid-sized
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)	59.88x	Relatively high
Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)	0.58x	Severe price-to-book ratio breach
ROE	0.98%	Weak
Net Profit Margin	0.43%	Relatively low
Current Ratio	1.17	Good liquidity

1. Mature overseas layout, with multiple “100,000-unit” level markets in Europe and Southeast Asia
2. MG brand has high brand recognition in the European market
3. Accelerated promotion of domestic new energy transformation
4. Joint venture sector is under pressure but shows marginal improvement

In 2025, Great Wall Motors’ overseas sales hit a record high, reaching 506,100 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.68%. Its CKD (Completely Knocked Down) exports accounted for 53.2%, ranking among the top in the industry. This model can effectively reduce tariff costs and avoid trade barriers [16]. At the same time, Great Wall Motors maintained stable performance in traditional markets such as Russia.

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	USD 18.543 billion	Mid-sized
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)	16.99x	Moderate
Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)	2.14x	Moderate
ROE	13.11%	Upper-mid level
Net Profit Margin	5.13%	Good
Estimated Gross Margin	22%	Relatively high

1. Differentiated competitive advantages in off-road vehicles and pickup trucks
2. Leading Hi4 hybrid technology, complete PHEV product matrix
3. Mature overseas CKD model, low compliance costs
4. Tank brand’s high-endization has achieved initial results

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Based on industry characteristics and corporate competitiveness, we have constructed the following investment value evaluation system:

Dimension	BYD	Chery	Geely	SAIC	Great Wall
Export Growth Momentum	9.5	8.0	6.0	7.0	7.5
Valuation Rationality	6.5	8.5	9.0	7.5	8.0
Profitability	8.0	7.0	7.5	5.0	7.5
Maturity of Overseas Layout	7.5	9.0	7.5	8.5	7.0
Intelligentization Technology	9.5	7.0	8.0	7.0	6.5
Brand Premium	7.5	6.5	7.0	7.5	6.0
Comprehensive Score	8.0	7.7	7.4	7.1	7.1

Enterprise	Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)	Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)	EV/OCF	Industry Position
BYD	22.79x	3.98x	7.36x	New energy industry leader, moderate valuation
Geely Automobile	10.28x	1.76x	6.03x	Valuation depression
SAIC Motor	59.88x	0.58x	6.50x	Performance under pressure, severe price-to-book ratio breach
Great Wall Motors	16.99x	2.14x	5.96x	Moderate valuation
Seres	27.35x	7.10x	7.01x	High valuation with high growth

From the valuation perspective, Geely Automobile’s PE is only 10.28x, which is significantly undervalued; SAIC Motor’s PB is only 0.58x, indicating that the market is pessimistic about its prospects but also provides a high margin of safety.

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In 2025, the export growth rate of PHEVs was significantly higher than that of BEVs, becoming the core product to break through tariff barriers. Chinese automakers have precisely matched the demand of the European market (the EU only imposes a 10% standard tariff on PHEVs vs. up to 45.3% on BEVs), while meeting the demand for charging convenience in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East [17].

Focus on enterprises with leading PHEV technologies, such as BYD (DM-i/DM-p), Great Wall Motors (Hi4), Geely (Leishen Hybrid), etc.

Emerging markets such as Africa, Oceania, Southeast Asia, and South America have shown significant growth rates, becoming new growth poles for China’s vehicle exports. In the Indonesian market, from January to October 2025, cumulative sales of Chinese brand vehicles reached 82,436 units, doubling year-on-year, and the market share increased from 5.8% to 13% [18].

Focus on enterprises with mature channel layouts in emerging markets, such as Chery (deeply engaged in emerging markets for many years), SAIC (with factory layouts in Southeast Asia), BYD (the Rayong plant in Thailand has been put into production).

Following the overseas expansion of automakers, a large number of Chinese upstream auto parts enterprises have successively built factories overseas. As of March 2025, the number of Thai auto parts companies funded by Chinese enterprises has surged from about 48 at the end of 2017 to 165 [19].

Focus on automakers with global layout capabilities and their ecosystem enterprises.

2026 is regarded as the first year of commercialization of L3-level autonomous driving, and the export of intelligentization technologies and products will accelerate. The export of software-defined vehicle concepts and products will become a new value growth point [20].

Focus on enterprises with leading intelligentization technologies, such as BYD, XPeng, Huawei’s ecosystem partners, etc.

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• The EU imposes a maximum anti-subsidy duty of 35.3% on Chinese-made BEVs, plus the basic tariff, totaling up to 45.3% [21]
• At the end of the year, China and the EU reached a price commitment agreement to replace anti-subsidy duties for electric vehicles, but the specific implementation rules are still uncertain
• The EU plans to introduce a maximum threshold for the carbon footprint of electric vehicle batteries in 2028, which is directly related to market access qualifications [22]

• The U.S. market is basically closed to Chinese vehicles, and local production is the only path
• The Foreign Subsidies Regulation poses potential review risks for Chinese enterprises building factories in Europe

The EU will implement a number of new regulations in 2026:

• Carbon footprint declaration requirements under the EU New Battery Regulation
• Restrictions on cross-border data flow under the Data Act
• Material environmental protection (restricted and prohibited material list), circular economy standards
• Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for automobiles

• JPMorgan predicts that China’s vehicle sales may face a decline pressure of 3%-5% in 2026 [23]
• Impact of policy retreat: the new energy vehicle purchase tax preferential policy will be halved starting from 2026
• Although the industry “price war” has tended to subside, profit margins are still under pressure

• Exchange rate fluctuation risks
• High costs of overseas factory construction
• Long cycle for brand recognition building
• Time required to improve after-sales service networks

• Increased requirements for localization of battery supply chains
• Supply stability of key components such as chips
• Fluctuations in logistics costs (tight roll-on/roll-off ship capacity)

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Target	Ticker	Investment Logic	Risk Warning
BYD	002594.SZ	Global expansion supports valuation, dual-driven by PHEV and BEV, leading technology	Relatively high valuation, profit margin under pressure
Geely Automobile	0175.HK	Valuation depression, high growth of Galaxy brand, sufficient margin of safety	Decline in overseas exports, facing transformation pains

Target	Ticker	Investment Logic	Risk Warning
Great Wall Motors	601633.SS	Differentiated competition, mature CKD model, high gross margin	Relatively lagging in intelligentization, risks in the Russian market
SAIC Motor	600104.SS	High valuation margin of safety, mature overseas layout	Joint venture sector under pressure, weak profitability
Leapmotor	09863.HK	Innovative cooperation model with Stellantis, explosive overseas growth	Small scale, profitability to be verified

• Focus on the performance realization of the 2025 annual report
• Focus on the sales data of the first quarter of 2026 (JPMorgan expects a month-on-month decline of 30-35% [24])
• Deploy after policies become clear

• Focus on the progress of overseas factory construction (BYD’s Hungarian plant, Chery’s European plant, etc.)
• Focus on the performance of PHEVs in the European market
• Focus on the implementation progress of intelligentization technologies

• Global layout results become apparent
• Brand premium capabilities improve
• Profit structure improves

• Focus on enterprises with fast export growth rates and perfect overseas layouts
• Focus on BYD, Chery, Leapmotor

• Focus on low-valuation targets such as Geely Automobile and SAIC Motor
• Wait for confirmation of performance inflection points

• Focus on XPeng, Huawei’s ecosystem partners
• Valuation reshaping opportunities brought by intelligentization technology export

• Focus on enterprises with leading PHEV technologies
• Great Wall Motors’ Hi4, BYD’s DM, Geely’s Leishen Hybrid

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1. Industry Trend Confirmation:
   China’s vehicle exports have entered a stage of structural growth, transforming from product export to ecosystem export. Exports exceeded 7 million units in 2025, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, providing broad growth space for automakers.

2. Significant Structural Opportunities:
   The rise of exports by domestic automakers has brought obvious investment opportunities. Enterprises such as BYD, Chery, and SAIC have formed overseas sales scales of over 1 million units, and new forces such as Leapmotor have achieved explosive growth through innovative cooperation models.

3. Obvious Valuation Differentiation:
   As the industry leader, BYD enjoys a valuation premium, while traditional automakers such as Geely are at historical low valuations, providing a good margin of safety. SAIC Motor’s price-to-book ratio is below 1, with sufficient margin of safety but needs