Analysis of the Impact of Greenland's Resource Development on the Global Energy and Mining Investment Landscape

Based on the latest information I have collected, I will systematically analyze the potential impact of Greenland’s resource development on the global energy and mining investment landscape from the perspective of a professional financial analyst.

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Greenland, the world’s largest island (covering approximately 2.16 million square kilometers), boasts extremely rich mineral resource reserves. According to the 2023 resource assessment report released by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, the region may contain a variety of critical mineral resources [1].

• Greenland has the
  world’s largest undeveloped rare earth deposit
  , with rare earth reserves accounting for
  25%
  of the global total, and the content of heavy rare earths (such as neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, etc.) is particularly prominent [5]. Heavy rare earths are core materials for manufacturing fighter jet engines, missile guidance systems, and advanced weapon systems. An F-35 fighter jet requires 417 kilograms of rare earth materials, while a nuclear submarine uses more than 4 tons of rare earths [2].

• Lithium and graphite (widely used in electric vehicle batteries and various technical fields)
• Cobalt and nickel (essential metals for the new energy industry)
• Zinc, copper, iron, uranium, etc. [3]

• Abundant oil and natural gas reserves
• With the melting of Arctic sea ice, the feasibility of resource development has improved significantly

Greenland has become a new focal point of great power resource competition, with intertwined interests of various parties:

Participant	Strategic Objective	Actions
United States	Reduce dependence on China’s rare earths and ensure national security	Signed a memorandum of understanding on rare earth development cooperation with Greenland in 2019; In 2025, the U.S. Export-Import Bank provided a $120 million loan to Critical Metals Corp for the development of the Tanbreez rare earth mine [3]
European Union	Ensure the resilience of critical raw material supply chains	Designated the Amitsoq graphite project as a “strategic project” and awarded GreenRoc Mining Plc a 30-year mining license in December 2025 [3]
China	Maintain dominant position in the rare earth supply chain	Indirectly participates in competition through investment in Australia’s Greenland Mining Company, but its influence is limited [6]

Greenland guards important shipping lanes connecting the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean, serving as a strategic channel for the

[4]. The Arctic shipping lanes are known as the [1]. The improved navigability will drastically reshape the global shipping pattern, saving 9 to 15 days of voyage and avoiding traditional high-risk waters.

The resource development in Greenland will redistribute the global flow of critical mineral investments:

• The United States and the European Union are attracting capital into Greenland’s mining projects through sovereign guarantees, low-interest loans, and other means
• In 2025, global investment related to low-carbon transition exceeded $2 trillion for the first time, and the ratio of investment in clean energy to fossil energy expanded to
  2.5:1
  [1]

• Western countries are working to reduce their dependence on China’s rare earth supply chain (currently, China dominates
  90%
  of the world’s rare earth refining capacity and
  80%
  of permanent magnet manufacturing) [5]
• Greenland is regarded as an important chip to break China’s monopoly

• Greenland currently has only
  two
  active mining pits, with huge development potential
• 100 blocks have been granted exploration permits, and mining companies from the UK, Canada, and Australia are the main foreign permit holders [6]
• Christian Kielsen, President of the Greenland Chamber of Commerce, stated that the geopolitical situation is triggering a boom in investment interest in Greenland

Risk Type	Specific Performance	Impact Level
Environmental Risk	80% of the area is covered by an ice sheet, and mining may accelerate glacier melting	Extremely High
Cost Risk	Operating costs in the Arctic region are 5-10 times those in other regions	High
Political Risk	Greenland’s autonomous government adheres to the “zero ecological damage” mining principle, and the approval rate of environmental permits is less than 20%	High
Technological Risk	The rare earth content is relatively low, and it will take at least 10 years to achieve commercial mining	Medium-High

• Greenland will still influence the market in the form of “investment expectations” and “deterrence leverage”
• China may diversify risks through rare earth cooperation in regions such as Africa (Malawi) and Central Asia (Kazakhstan) [5]

• If technological breakthroughs and environmental constraints are resolved, Greenland is expected to become an important supply source of critical minerals for the West
• The global rare earth supply chain may shift from high concentration to diversification

• The full navigation of Arctic shipping lanes will reshape global trade routes
• Greenland may become the “rare earth factory” of the Western world, but it is still difficult to shake China’s industrial chain advantages in the short term

Target Type	Representative Companies	Investment Logic
Rare Earth Developers	Critical Metals Corp (CRML)	Backed by the U.S. government, with the Tanbreez project receiving a loan; its stock price surged 62% in a single day in 2025 [3]
Graphite Developers	GreenRoc Mining Plc	Designated as an EU strategic project, with the Amitsoq mine granted a 30-year license; a key link in the European supply chain
Mining Equipment Suppliers	North American/European Polar Mining Equipment Providers	Increased demand for infrastructure construction; long-term beneficiary

• Policy Uncertainty
  : The Trump administration may adopt aggressive measures to gain control, triggering backlash from Denmark and Europe
• Stricter Environmental Regulations
  : The Greenland government requires ecological restoration deposits (exceeding $100 million per project), and cyanide-based purification is prohibited
• Infrastructure Bottlenecks
  : Lack of roads, electricity, and port facilities, leading to high development costs
• Technological Bottlenecks
  : Low heavy rare earth content, significant gap in purification technology (China’s purification technology reaches 99.9999%, while the U.S.'s is only 99.5%, with costs 2.3 times higher) [5]

According to expert analysis, whether Greenland can become a global investment hotspot depends on the following conditions [5]:

1. Mining Technological Breakthrough
   : Maturation of green purification processes and overcoming environmental constraints
2. Balance Between Sovereignty and Foreign Interests
   : The Greenland government finds a solution that balances its independence demands and foreign investment interests
3. Escalation of China-U.S. Competition
   : If the risk of resource blockade escalates, it will accelerate the construction of alternative supply sources by the West

Scenario	Probability	Investment Impact
Optimistic Scenario (Large-scale Development)	20%	Global rare earth prices decline, and Western supply chain risks are reduced
Neutral Scenario (Limited Development)	50%	Greenland becomes a supplementary supply source, without changing China’s dominant pattern
Pessimistic Scenario (Development Stagnation)	30%	Continues to serve as a tool for geopolitical games, with speculative capital inflows

Greenland’s resource development will have a

impact on the global energy and mining investment landscape. Currently, its strategic value is more reflected in the dimension, rather than a substantive supply source replacement. In the short term, Western investors should focus on policy-supported projects (such as Critical Metals Corp, GreenRoc Mining Plc), but need to be alert to high costs, political uncertainty, and environmental risks. In the medium to long term, with the opening of Arctic shipping lanes and advancements in mining technology, Greenland is expected to reshape the global critical mineral supply chain pattern, but this process will depend on the complex game of multiple interests.

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[1] CRI Online - In-Depth Tracking: What Makes Greenland So Coveted by the United States? (https://news.cri.cn/20260107/cc9c1d3b-994d-4f02-9638-f8198130f10d.html)

[2] Tencent News - Greenland’s Rare Earth Dilemma: Trump Wants “Profit Without Cost” but Can’t Escape Chinese Processing (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260114A05RNP00)

[3] CSIS - Greenland, Rare Earths, and Arctic Security (https://www.csis.org/analysis/greenland-rare-earths-and-arctic-security)

[4] AZ Chinese News Network - Why Is Trump Fixated on Greenland? A Dangerous Game Intertwining Geopolitics, Resources, and Hegemonic Anxiety (https://www.azchinesenews1.com/static/content/ZT/2026-01-06/1458314149268459520.html)

[5] Sina News - The Battle for Rare Earth Resources: Will Greenland Become the Next Global Hotspot? (https://news.sina.cn/bignews/insight/2026-01-15/detail-inhhiusc3489963.d.html)

[6] BBC Chinese - Greenland: The Battle Behind the Tempting Mineral Resources (https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/articles/ceve1wg2vkdo/trad)