In-Depth Analysis of Technical Risks and Investment Prospects for China's Private Commercial Aerospace Enterprises

Based on the latest news reports and market data, I will provide you with an in-depth analysis report on the technical risks and investment prospects of China’s private commercial aerospace enterprises.

At 12:08 on January 17, 2026, the Ceres-2 (Yao-1) private commercial carrier rocket developed by Beijing Galactic Energy Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. ignited and lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. An anomaly occurred during the rocket’s flight, and the maiden flight test mission was declared a failure. The specific cause of the malfunction is under further investigation and analysis[1][2].

• Launch Time
  : January 17, 2026, 12:08
• Launch Site
  : Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center
• Rocket Model
  : Ceres-2 (Yao-1) — an all-new upgraded model developed by Galactic Energy
• Technical Features
  : Adopts an innovative scheme of three-stage solid tandem + liquid upper stage, with a liftoff mass of 100 tons and a payload capacity of 1.6 tons to a 500-kilometer low Earth orbit (LEO)

Notably, this failure occurred one day after Galactic Energy successfully completed the launch mission of the Ceres-1 Sea Launch Version (Yao-7) on January 16, which sent 4 satellites of the “Apocalypse Constellation” into low Earth orbit, marking a “good start” for private commercial launches in 2026[3].

Space launch is a systematic project involving tens of thousands of core components and thousands of technical links. Any minor design deviation, component flaw, or environmental interference may trigger a chain reaction. As a key link in technical verification, the maiden flight of a new carrier rocket inherently carries a high risk coefficient[1].

Currently, liquid reusable rockets have become a key breakthrough for reducing launch costs in commercial aerospace, but domestic reusable rocket technology is still in the catch-up phase[6][7]:

• Technology Gap
  : The launch cost per kilogram to LEO for SpaceX’s Falcon 9 is approximately RMB 10,000, while China’s Long March series rockets range from RMB 40,000 to 90,000 per kilogram, and private commercial rockets generally exceed RMB 100,000 per kilogram
• Reuse Cost
  : The reuse cost of Zhuque-3 is currently 5.7 times that of SpaceX’s reusable rockets
• Landing Failure Rate
  : The first-stage landing failure rate of reusable rockets is relatively high, and technological maturity needs to be improved

The technological update cycle for upstream rocket engines takes 8-10 years, while the iteration cycle for the downstream satellite communication service market is only 2-3 years. This mismatch in technological iteration speeds will exacerbate risk transmission[8].

1. Inevitable Path of Technical Verification
   : The industry generally believes that trial and error, as well as iteration, are normal in the development of commercial aerospace. The fault data accumulated from this failure will provide an important reference for subsequent technical optimization[1]
2. Strengthened Risk Prevention and Control
   : Will promote enterprises to further improve their technology R&D and risk prevention and control systems
3. Industry Experience Accumulation
   : Every launch, whether successful or not, is a valuable opportunity for technical verification and experience accumulation

1. Changes in Competitive Landscape
   : The failure may affect Galactic Energy’s competitiveness in tenders for large-scale projects such as the Qianfan Constellation
2. Fluctuations in Capital Confidence
   : May affect the investment enthusiasm of the primary market for the commercial aerospace sector in the short term

According to industry research data, the value distribution of the commercial aerospace industry chain shows a “dumbbell” characteristic[8][9]:

Data Sources: Securities Times, 36Kr, 21st Century Business Herald[4][5][11]

• The 2024 Government Work Report established the status of commercial aerospace as a “new growth engine” for the first time
• The 2025 Action Plan for the National Space Administration to Promote High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025—2027) was released
• Clearly established a market-operated “National Commercial Aerospace Development Fund”
• The scope of application of the 5th listing standard on the STAR Market was expanded to support the listing of commercial aerospace enterprises[11]

• Guangdong Province’s Several Policy Measures to Promote the High-Quality Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025—2028)
• Shandong Province’s Several Measures to Accelerate the High-Quality Development of the Commercial Aerospace Industry
• Multiple regions have established industrial investment funds for commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy

2026 will be a pivotal year for the development of China’s commercial aerospace[7][10]:

Since November 2025, commercial aerospace concept stocks have remained red-hot. Wind data shows that as of January 12, 2026, the Wind Commercial Aerospace Theme Index has surged by 33.38% year-to-date[12].

• Aerospace Electronics
  : The short-term surge in its stock price is significantly higher than that of the industry and the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period, and its net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 62.77% year-on-year
• China Spacesat
  : Its 2024 operating revenue decreased by 25.06% year-on-year, and its non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 96.67% year-on-year
• Aerospace Huanyu
  : Its stock price has surged by 265.82% in the short term, decoupling from fundamentals
• Aerospace Hongtu
  : There is a risk of cyclical mismatch between upstream and downstream of the industry chain, and launch failures or delays will directly affect business progress

1. Exercise Caution in Chasing Highs
   : Commercial aerospace concept stocks have seen excessive short-term surges; it is recommended to avoid high-level risks
2. Focus on Substance
   : Distinguish between enterprises with genuine core technologies and order capabilities and concept speculation
3. Diversify Risks
   : Avoid concentrated investment in a single enterprise or sub-sector

1. Deploy in Leading Enterprises
   : Focus on leading enterprises with advanced technology, stable orders, and reasonable valuations
2. Focus on “Shovel Sellers”
   : Upstream segments such as satellite manufacturing, rocket engines, and key components have high certainty
3. Seize the IPO Window
   : Multiple commercial aerospace unicorns will go public in 2026, providing more investment options
4. Track Technological Breakthroughs
   : Breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology will significantly reduce costs and serve as an important industry catalyst

• Leading enterprises in satellite payloads (T/R modules, on-board communications)
• Rocket engine and core supporting suppliers
• Leading satellite manufacturing enterprises
• High-quality commercial aerospace enterprises that have initiated IPO processes

1. Technical Risk is an Inherent Feature of Commercial Aerospace
   : The maiden flight failure of Ceres-2 reflects the inherently high-risk nature of commercial space launches, which is normal in the international commercial aerospace development process
2. Short-Term Disturbances Will Not Alter the Long-Term Trend
   : This failure will not change the upward development trend of China’s commercial aerospace industry, and 2026 remains a pivotal year for the industry
3. Investments Need to Return to Rationality
   : The current market sentiment is overheated; investors need to distinguish between concept speculation and real value, focusing on enterprises with core technological strength
4. Opportunities and Risks Coexist in the Industry Chain
   : Satellite application services account for over 50% of the industry chain’s value, and upstream “shovel seller” enterprises have high investment certainty
5. 2026 is an Important Turning Point
   : Concentrated maiden flights of reusable rockets and IPOs of commercial aerospace enterprises will kick off the prelude to large-scale industry development

• The risk of rocket launch failures will persist long-term
• Intensified industry competition may lead to the elimination of some enterprises
• Current valuation levels have decoupled from fundamentals, and there is a risk of a correction
• Policy support may fall short of expectations
• The timeline for technological breakthroughs is uncertain

[1] Xinhua Daily·Jiaohuidian - Ceres-2 Maiden Flight Fails, Galactic Energy Issues Apology Statement (https://www.xhby.net/content/s696b74e2e4b036471c574781.html)
[2] CNRS.com - Ceres-2 Maiden Flight Test Mission Fails (https://finance.cnr.cn/ycbd/20260117/t20260117_527496738.shtml)
[3] Securities Times - 2026 Commercial Aerospace Maiden Flight Successful (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3596398.html)
[4] Securities Times - Galactic Energy Initiates Listing Guidance to Accelerate Industrialization of China’s Private Commercial Carrier Rockets (https://stcn.com/article/detail/3399645.html)
[5] 36Kr - Having Just Raised RMB 2.5 Billion, This Unicorn Initiates IPO (https://eu.36kr.com/zh/p/3521533784185734)
[6] Wall Street CN - In-Depth Research Report on “Shovel Sellers” in Commercial Aerospace (https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/1989496824969589868)
[7] 36Kr - The In-Depth Shuffle Period Has Arrived: Where Will Commercial Aerospace Go? (https://eu.36kr.com/zh/p/3624894305633544)
[8] Wall Street CN - “Foundation Layer - Network Layer - Frontier Layer” China Commercial Aerospace Industry Chain Map (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761959)
[9] Sina Finance - Investment Opportunities in the Commercial Aerospace Industry Chain (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2026-01-08/doc-inhfqyhp6591387.shtml)
[10] Caiwen - Short-Term Disturbances Will Not Alter the Long-Term Trend; China’s Commercial Aerospace Has Promising Growth Prospects (https://www.caiwennews.com/article/1410543.shtml)
[11] 21st Century Business Herald - Commercial Aerospace Unicorns Race for IPO (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3558734.html)
[12] JW View - V Financial Report | Commercial Aerospace Concept Remains Red-Hot, Multiple Listed Companies Issue Emergency Announcements (https://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/m/01-12/653811.shtml)
[13] Wall Street CN - Commercial Aerospace 2026: The Singular Moment From Great Power Narrative to Commercial Closed Loop (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762511)