In-Depth Analysis of the Significance of Large-Scale Net Outflows in Broad-Based Index ETFs

I will now provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report:

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This week (the third week of January 2026), the capital flow of ETFs in the A-share market presents a significant structural differentiation pattern. According to statistics from Wind, the combined net outflow of equity ETFs and cross-border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached

, with details as follows:

Capital Flow Category	Net Inflow (RMB 100 million)	Flow Nature
Broad-Based Index ETF	-2126	Large-Scale Withdrawal
Industry-Themed ETF	+693	Counter-Trend Inflow
CSI 300 ETF	-1034	Main Force Withdrawal
HuaTai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF	-475.15	Largest Single Withdrawal
Top 10 Broad-Based ETFs (Total)	-1508.5	Concentrated Withdrawal
CSI 2000 ETF	Slight Inflow	Only Inflowing Category

• Broad-Based ETF Outflow / Industry ETF Inflow Ratio:
  3.07:1
• CSI 300 ETF Outflow as a Percentage of Total Broad-Based ETF Outflows:
  48.6%
• HuaTai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF Single Outflow as a Percentage of Broad-Based ETF Outflows:
  22.3%
  [0][1]

Institutional investors show a clear decline in short-term risk appetite for large-cap blue chips. As the most representative large-cap blue chip index ETF in the A-share market, the CSI 300 ETF saw a weekly net outflow exceeding RMB 100 billion, accounting for nearly half of the total outflow of broad-based ETFs, reflecting main force capital concerns about the following factors:

• Valuation Pullback Pressure
  : Large-cap blue chips have seen significant gains in the early stage, facing technical pullback demands
• Upcoming Performance Verification Period
  : The window for annual report performance forecasts has opened, and stocks with weak fundamental support are under pressure
• Relative Profit Lock-In
  : Some institutions choose to realize profits and shift to more flexible growth tracks [1][2]

The trend of capital shifting from “defensive” broad-based products to “offensive” thematic investments is very obvious:

1. Software ETF
   : Net inflow of over RMB 3 billion (ranks first)
2. Satellite ETF
   : Net inflow of over RMB 2.5 billion
3. Non-Ferrous Metals ETF
   : Net inflow of over RMB 2 billion
4. AI/Artificial Intelligence ETF
   : Net inflow of over RMB 1 billion
5. Power Grid Equipment ETF
   : Net inflow of nearly RMB 700 million [0][1]

This capital allocation trend reflects institutions’ precise grasp of

rather than a systematic withdrawal.

The CSI 2000 ETF is the only broad-based index with net inflows, which is in line with the historical “calendar effect” rule —

. Capital is seeking alpha opportunities in small-cap stocks, suggesting that expectations of a market style shift from small-caps to large-caps may be forming.

Time Node	Event	Outflow Scale	Subsequent Trend	Implication
February 2024	Reversal after large-scale broad-based ETF outflows at the start of the year	Approximately RMB 80 billion	Rebound after periodic bottom	Large-scale outflows often correspond to periodic bottoms
September 2024	Policy-driven capital shift	Obvious broad-based outflows	Stabilized and rebounded under policy stimulus	Capital outflows often coincide with policy bottoms
January 2026	Current large-scale outflows	RMB 212.6 billion	To be observed	Record-high scale

Signal Type	Strength Rating	Interpretation
Risk Appetite Shift	★★★★☆	Shifting from anchoring on large caps to selected tracks
Accelerated Sector Rotation	★★★★★	Structural differentiation will continue to intensify
Valuation Differentiation	★★★★☆	Large-cap blue chips pull back, small-caps recover
Probability of Bottom Signal	★★★☆☆	Requires comprehensive judgment combined with fundamentals

According to institutional analysis, the current inflation level is moderately rising, the internal driving force of economic recovery is gradually recovering, and the positive macro fundamentals will help the A-share market continue its structural slow bull pattern.

[1][2].

• Catalysts
  : Expectations for the first year of AI applications, upcoming performance inflection point
• Capital Signal
  : Software ETF ranks first with net inflow of over RMB 3 billion
• Investment Logic
  : The 2026 tech market is expected to expand from computing infrastructure to software [0][2]

• Catalysts
  : Successful launch of 18 groups of satellites by China Satellite Network, dense networking of mega constellations
• Capital Signal
  : Satellite ETF has net inflow of over RMB 2.5 billion
• Investment Logic
  : The accelerating development trend of the domestic satellite industry remains unchanged, and breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology bring new catalysts [1][2]

• Catalysts
  : Expectations of PPI recovery, commodity cycle recovery
• Capital Signal
  : Non-Ferrous Metals ETF has net inflow of over RMB 2 billion
• Investment Logic
  : Manufacturing recovery combined with supply constraints, favorable cyclical position [1]

• Catalysts
  : Construction of new power systems, accelerated approval of ultra-high voltage projects
• Capital Signal
  : Power Grid Equipment ETF has net inflow of nearly RMB 700 million
• Investment Logic
  : Counter-cyclical investment + high growth certainty [1]

• Previous Hot Sectors (Robotics, Photovoltaics)
  : High short-term capital profit-taking pressure
• Military Industry
  : Weakening short-term event catalysts, cooling market sentiment
• Real Estate-Related Sectors
  : Sustained downturn in industry fundamentals

• Broad-Based Anchoring
  : Maintain strategic allocation to core assets
• Left-Side Layout
  : Consider gradually increasing positions in CSI 300 during broad-based pullbacks
• Hong Kong Stock Allocation
  : Focus on dividend assets such as Hong Kong-listed tech stocks and free cash flow stocks

• Short-Term Avoidance
  : Appropriately reduce exposure to large-cap blue chips
• Follow the Trend
  : Participate in main themes such as software and satellites in line with capital flows
• Rotation Rhythm
  : Pay attention to style shifts during the performance forecast period

1. Effectiveness of the
   4100-point support level for the Shanghai Composite Index
2. Whether
   ETF capital flows
   continue to shift to industry themes
3. Overall tone of
   annual report performance forecasts
4. Changes in the
   RMB exchange rate
   and foreign capital flows

This capital withdrawal behavior, with broad-based index ETFs seeing a weekly net outflow of over RMB 200 billion, releases the following core signals:

1. Risk Appetite Shift
   : Institutional investors are shifting from systematic allocation to selected tracks
2. Accelerated Sector Rotation
   : Technology (software, AI), high-end manufacturing (satellites), and cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals) have become new main lines
3. Style Shift Expectations
   : Large-cap blue chips are under pressure, while small-cap growth stocks are gaining attention
4. Bottom Signal to Be Verified
   : In history, large-scale ETF outflows often correspond to periodic bottoms, but confirmation from subsequent trends is required

: Maintain cautious optimism in the short term, appropriately adjust position structure from broad-based allocation to industry-themed layout, and closely monitor changes in market volume and the holding of key support levels.

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[0] Tian Tian Fund Network - “Broad-Based Index ETFs Sold Off by Main Forces for Over RMB 200 Billion! Over 100 Industry-Themed ETFs Are Being Snatched Up by Capital” (https://fund.eastmoney.com/a/202601173622493672.html)

[1] Securities Times - “Stock ETFs See Net Outflow of Over RMB 7.3 Billion on January 14” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3594605.html)

[2] Eastmoney - “Stock ETFs See Single-Day Net Outflow of Over RMB 7 Billion: Broad-Based Products Suffer Collective Capital Outflow, Software and Non-Ferrous Metals See Main Force Inflows” (https://nw.eastday.com/zq/zh/20260115/86466858bd14d5dd8edd5c3f29c2a2ad.html)"