Does the Securities Brokerage Industry's 55% Profit Growth Signal the Arrival of a Bull Market?

Based on the in-depth analysis above, I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive research report:

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According to the latest disclosed financial data, the securities brokerage industry delivered an impressive performance in 2025 [1][2]:

Core Indicator	Value	Year-on-Year Change
Listed Brokerages’ Net Profit Excluding Non-Recurring Gains and Losses	Expected RMB 216.7 billion	+55%
CITIC Securities Net Profit	RMB 30.051 billion	+38.46%
CITIC Securities Operating Revenue	RMB 74.83 billion	+28.75%
A-share Average Daily Stock & Fund Trading Turnover	RMB 1.98 trillion	+67%
Margin Trading Balance	RMB 2.5 trillion	+36%

: CITIC Securities’ annual net profit exceeded the RMB 30 billion mark for the first time, setting a new all-time high since the company’s establishment [1][2].

The substantial profit growth of the securities brokerage industry mainly stems from three core drivers:

1. Increased Market Activity
   : A-share market turnover rebounded significantly in 2025, with average daily trading turnover up 67% year-on-year
2. Surge in Proprietary Trading Earnings
   : CITIC Securities’ investment income in the first three quarters reached RMB 32.838 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 190.05% [2]
3. Recovery of Investment Banking Business
   : The IPO market picked up, with CITIC Securities’ IPO fundraising reaching RMB 24.7 billion in 2025, up 86% year-on-year

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Through backtesting and analysis of historical data from 2015 to 2025, we found a

between brokerage profit growth rate and market trends:

Correlation Indicator	Value	Interpretation
Brokerage Profit Growth Rate vs. CSI 300	0.77	Strong Positive Correlation
Brokerage Profit Growth Rate vs. Brokerage Sector Index	0.71	Strong Positive Correlation

:

• Bull Market Years
  (CSI 300 increase >10%): 2018, 2019, 2021, 2025
• Average Brokerage Profit Growth Rate During Bull Markets
  : 37.5%
• 2025 Profit Growth Rate of 55%
  : Significantly higher than the historical bull market average

Year	Brokerage Profit Growth Rate	CSI 300 Increase	Market Nature
2015	+45%	+6%	Bull Market (Policy-Driven)
2018	+35%	+17%	Structural Bull Market
2019	+55%	+22%	Bull Market
2021	+5%	+36%	Bull Market (Growth-Driven)
2025	+55%	+17.66%	Current Market

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The most notable market feature in 2025 is the

[1][2]:

Indicator	Value	Market Ranking
Brokerage Sector Index Increase	4.05%	Significantly Underperforms
CSI 300 Increase	17.66%	Outperforms Brokerage Sector by 14.6 percentage points
Brokerage Sector Valuation	Historical Low	Still Has Room for Repair

: China Merchants Securities pointed out, “Currently, the brokerage sector’s valuation still lags behind, and the holding level is still low, which is inconsistent with the sector’s status as the ‘bellwether of bull markets’ and the potential for performance growth brought by policy warming” [2].

Taking CITIC Securities (600030.SH) as an example [0]:

Valuation Indicator	Value	Historical Comparison
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	14.83x	Below Historical Central Level
Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)	1.48x	At Historical Low
ROE	9.50%	Remains Stable

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:

• Brokerage profit growth rate is a
  leading indicator
  of the market, not a lagging indicator
• The 55% profit growth rate is comparable to that during historical major bull markets (e.g., 2015, 2019)

:

• Sustained increase in market activity (trading turnover +67%)
• Margin trading balance up 36%, leveraged capital accelerating entry
• IPO market recovery, investment banking business is expected to continue warming up

:

• Regulatory policies have entered an ‘active cycle’ [3]
• Public fund reform brings incremental capital to brokerages
• Industry mergers and acquisitions accelerate, competition pattern optimized

:

• Current valuation is at a historical low
• Institutional holdings are at a low level, with room for replenishment
• Funding pressure factors have basically been cleared [3]

:

• Part of the profit growth comes from ‘beta’ gains brought by market fluctuations
• Under the downward trend of commissions, the traditional brokerage business model is under pressure

:

• Resources are concentrated in leading brokerages, the Matthew effect is obvious
• Small and medium-sized brokerages face greater competitive pressure

:

• The divergence between stock prices and performance reflects that investor confidence still needs to be restored
• Short-term volatility may persist

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:

1. Short-term
   : The ‘high performance, low valuation’ divergence of the brokerage sector may persist, and stock price repair takes time
2. Mid-term
   : With continued performance verification and valuation repair, the sector is expected to usher in an upward trend
3. Long-term
   : Against the backdrop of increasing industry concentration, leading brokerages have higher allocation value

Theme	Logic	Target Type
Low-Valuation Leading Brokerages	Adequate safety margin, large room for valuation repair	CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities
Advantages in Great Wealth Management	Effective transformation to wealth management	East Money, Industrial Securities
Outstanding Retail Advantages	Benefit from increased market activity	Internet Brokerages

• Decline in market trading turnover
• Continued decline in commission rates
• Tightening of regulatory policies
• Spillover of global market volatility

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The 55% profit growth rate of the securities brokerage industry does reflect the warming trend of the capital market in 2025. From a historical perspective, the brokerage profit growth rate, as a leading indicator of market trends, often corresponds to a warm market environment. However, the current special situation lies in:

1. Divergence between performance and stock prices
   : The strong performance has not been effectively transmitted to stock price performance
2. Valuation at historical low
   : Provides a safety margin for medium- and long-term investment
3. Obvious structural differentiation
   : Not all brokerages can share the industry growth dividends

Comprehensive judgment:

. For investors, the current period may be a good time to deploy the brokerage sector, but patience is required for valuation repair, and focus should be on high-quality leading brokerages.

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[1] 21st Century Business Herald - “Bull Market Arrives, the ‘Top Broker’ Earns Over RMB 3 Billion Net Profit” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260117/herald/d6069e1cc3571bbddbf6e745d117dc31.html)

[2] China Fund News - “CITIC Securities Releases 2025 Annual Performance Express, Annual Net Profit Attributable to Parent Exceeds RMB 30 Billion” (https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR2d8bc477-ee44-df2d-36f3-3a1ecea92cb9)

[3] Sina Finance - “First 2025 Brokerage Performance Express Released, Institutions Optimistic About Sector Allocation Value” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-16/doc-inhhpmsr3793950.shtml)

[4] Sina Finance - “Spring Market Plus Low Valuation, Institutions Optimistic About Investment Opportunities in Brokerage Sector” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-07/doc-inhfmtvv6415271.shtml)