In-Depth Analysis of the Domestic Replacement Space in the Storage Industry

Based on the latest market data and research materials, I provide you with a systematic analysis of the domestic replacement space in the storage industry:

---

According to data from Counterpoint Research, the global DRAM market showed a new competitive structure in Q3 2025:

Vendor	Market Share	Status Change
SK Hynix	34%	Surpassed Samsung, ranked first
Samsung Electronics	33%	Ranked second by a narrow margin
Micron Technology	26%	Stably ranked third globally
ChangXin Memory Technologies	5%	Entered top four for the first time
Nanya Technology	1%	Other
Other	1%	Other

As the leading domestic DRAM supplier, ChangXin Memory Technologies has achieved a historic breakthrough with a 5% market share, which is the best performance of domestic memory chip manufacturers in the global market [1][2].

The global NAND Flash market is also highly concentrated, but domestic manufacturer Yangtze Memory Technologies is accelerating its catch-up. Data shows that in 2025, Yangtze Memory Technologies has achieved a technological breakthrough in 232-layer-plus 3D NAND, with its products shifting from “usable” to “reliable”, and is transitioning from an “alternative supplier” to a “main supplier” [3].

---

Year	Global Market Share of Domestic Memory Chips	YoY Change
2019	0%	-
2020	0.5%	+0.5pp
2021	1.5%	+1.0pp
2022	3%	+1.5pp
2023	5%	+2.0pp
2024	8%	+3.0pp
2025	12%	+4.0pp

The global market share of domestic memory chips has grown from nearly 0% in 2019 to 12% in 2025, showing an accelerated expansion trend [1][4].

Year	Localization Rate of Semiconductor Equipment	Growth Margin
2020	7%	-
2021	9%	+2pp
2022	12%	+3pp
2023	18%	+6pp
2024	25%	+7pp
2025	35%	+10pp
2026E	45%	+10pp

In 2025, the overall market share of domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment in mainland China climbed to 35%, a significant increase of 10 percentage points from 25% in 2024, exceeding the previously set annual target of 30%. Details are as follows:

• The localization rate of etching equipment has exceeded 40%
• The localization rate of thin film deposition equipment has exceeded 40%
• The market share of NAURA’s furnace tube equipment in SMIC’s 28nm production line exceeds 60% [5]

Segment	Current Localization Rate	Potential Replacement Space	Market Value
DRAM	~5%	~90%	Global market size of approximately US$70 billion
NAND Flash	~8%	~85%	Global market size of approximately US$60 billion
Semiconductor Equipment	35%	~50-60%	Global market size of approximately US$130 billion
Memory Modules	30-40%	~50-60%	Chinese market size of approximately US$20 billion

---

The current memory chip market is in a historic price hike cycle. According to the latest forecasts from TrendForce and Counterpoint Research:

Time Node	DRAM Contract Price Increase	NAND Flash Price Increase	Market Characteristics
2025Q1	15%	10%	Cycle Initiation
2025Q2	20%	15%	Accelerated Price Hike
2025Q3	25%	20%	Tight Supply and Demand
2025Q4	35%	28%	Severe Shortage
2026Q1	55-60%	33-38%	Historical Peak
2026Q2	30%	20%	Minor Correction

1. Surging Demand for AI Servers
   : The memory demand of AI servers is 8-10 times that of regular servers
2. Capacity Transfer
   : The three major giants are shifting regular DRAM capacity to HBM, leading to a widening supply gap
3. Technology Iteration
   : DDR4 is gradually phasing out, and demand for DDR5/DDR6 is being released [6][7]

• Cease retail business of Crucial consumer-grade products by the end of February 2026
• Fully focus resources on AI data centers and enterprise-level markets
• The released consumer-grade market share provides replacement space for domestic manufacturers [8]

• Capacity is tilted towards high-margin HBM and DDR5 products
• Supply of niche products such as DDR4 has shrunk significantly
• Provides a market entry window for domestic manufacturers [1]

According to Barron’s, HP management has confirmed to Bank of America that it is qualifying additional memory suppliers from China.

Apple has been ready and willing to use Chinese flash memory in iPhones as early as three years ago.

This means:

[9].

---

• On December 30, 2025, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO application was officially accepted
• Plans to raise RMB 29.5 billion for capacity upgrading and technological R&D

• Three 12-inch wafer fabs in Hefei and Beijing are expected to reach full production in 2026
• Monthly capacity reached 200,000 wafers in 2024, with a CAGR of 58.5%

• First to achieve technological breakthroughs in DDR5 and LPDDR5X
• The maximum speed of DDR5 chips exceeds 8000Mbps
• The maximum speed of LPDDR5X reaches 10667Mbps, matching international mainstream levels [3]

• Achieved technological breakthrough in 232-layer-plus 3D NAND
• Achieved parity with international giants in advanced process technology
• The proportion of Tuojing Technology’s PECVD equipment in Yangtze Memory Technologies’ 3D NAND production line reaches 30%

• Achieved mass supply in the enterprise-level SSD segment
• Transitioned from an “alternative supplier” to a “main supplier”
• Become one of the few domestic enterprises with mass production capacity of high-end NAND [5]

Company	Business Segment	2024 Revenue	Core Advantages
Longsys	Memory Modules	RMB 17.46 billion (+72.5%)	Lexar brand + embedded memory
BIWIN Technology	Memory Modules	Focus on high-end memory layout	Received investment from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II
GigaDevice	NOR Flash+MCU	Stock price increased by over 180% YTD	A+H dual-platform layout
Demingshi Technology	Memory Control Chips	Rapid growth	Independent core technologies

• Embedded memory and SSD revenue account for 72%
• Strengthens packaging and testing capabilities by investing in factories in Suzhou, Zhongshan, and Brazil
• Global layout of three brands: Lexar, FORESEE, and Zilia [3][10]

---

Investment Theme	Sub-segment	Benefit Logic
Upstream Equipment and Materials	Etching equipment, thin film deposition, testing equipment	Increased localization rate + wafer fab expansion
Downstream Enterprise-level Modules	Server SSDs, memory modules	AI-driven demand + domestic replacement
Niche DRAM	DDR4 replacement, DDR5 layout	Exit of international giants + price surge
High-end Packaging and Testing	HBM packaging, advanced packaging	Technology iteration + tight capacity

Stock Code	Company Name	Investment Logic
688012.SH	AMEC	Leading etching equipment supplier, benefit from increased localization rate
688041.SH	Hygon Information	AI computing power + domestic CPU/GPU
301308.SZ	Longsys	Leading memory module supplier, driven by brand + technology
603986.SS	GigaDevice	NOR Flash+MCU, A+H dual-platform
688525.SH	BIWIN Technology	High-end memory, benefit from domestic replacement
002156.SZ	Tongfu Microelectronics	Advanced packaging, beneficiary of HBM
688981.SH	SMIC	Leading wafer foundry, core of domestic supply chain

Risk Type	Details	Impact Level
Cyclical Fluctuations	The storage industry has strong cyclical properties, and a correction may occur after price hikes	Medium-High
Technology Iteration Risk	Technological leading advantage of international giants, pressure on domestic manufacturers to catch up	Medium
Geopolitical Risk	Uncertainties such as export controls and supply chain security	Medium-High
Valuation Risk	Current valuations of the semiconductor sector have already reflected optimistic expectations	Medium
Overcapacity Risk	Industry expansion may lead to oversupply	Low-Medium

---

1. Short-term (2025-2026):
   The global market share of domestic memory chips is expected to rise from 12% to 15-18%
2. Mid-term (2027-2028):
   With the release of new capacities from ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies, the market share is expected to exceed 25%
3. Long-term (2030):
   Under the baseline scenario, domestic memory chips are expected to account for over 30% of the global market share

• Theoretical Replacement Space:
  Approximately US$50-60 billion per year in domestic replacement opportunities
• Current Progress:
  Approximately 15-20% of the replacement process has been completed
• Remaining Space:
  There is still 80-85% of replacement space to be unlocked

The domestic replacement of the storage industry is at a historic window of

:

1. Global Cycle:
   AI-driven memory chips enter a “super bull market”, with original manufacturers having strong pricing power
2. Technological Revolution:
   Accelerated iteration from DDR4 to high-end products such as DDR5/DDR6 and HBM3E
3. Domestic Breakthrough:
   Technological breakthroughs + capacity release from ChangXin and Yangtze Memory Technologies + increased localization rate of equipment

• Short-term:
  Focus on memory module enterprises benefiting from price hikes (Longsys, BIWIN Technology)
• Mid-term:
  Layout localization of equipment and materials (NAURA, AMEC)
• Long-term:
  Focus on the valuation revaluation opportunity brought by ChangXin Memory Technologies’ IPO

Memory chips are not a “cyclical opportunity”, but a “strategic opportunity” — this is a key breakthrough for China’s semiconductor industry to achieve independent controllability.

---

[1] EETimes China - “Memory Prices Surge 300%! Localization Rate of Semiconductor Equipment Reaches 45%” (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a465956.html)

[2] Eastmoney - “Mixed Fortunes in the Memory Super Cycle” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601103614938423.html)

[3] AJ Securities - Industry Research Report: “Memory Chip Price Hikes Will Continue Until 2026” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202512221805753876_1.pdf)

[4] Sina Finance - “Investment Insights: The Memory Chip Super Cycle That Rose 18x in a Year” (https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/5953190046/162d6789e06702j1yq)

[5] EETimes China - “Faster Than Expected! Localization Rate of Mainland Semiconductor Equipment Exceeds 35%” (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a467209.html)

[6] JRJ Financial - “Global Memory Chip Super Bull Market Erupts, AI Sparks Price Hike Wave” (https://stock.jrj.com.cn/2026/01/16184455095577.shtml)

[7] Counterpoint Research - 2025 Q4 Memory Market Forecast Report

[8] Huaxin Securities - Industry Weekly Report: “Micron Exits Consumer Track, ChangXin’s IPO Process Accelerates” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202512251807664336_1.pdf)

[9] Eastmoney - “Top Breaking News: Domestic Replacement Expands to the US” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260109013630682786910)

[10] Caifuhao - “Market Catalyzed by International Chip Price Hikes and National Policies” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260111180027031826700)