Analysis of the Incident of Trump Offering Dimon the Federal Reserve Chair Position and Its Market Impact

Based on the latest news reports, this article provides a detailed analysis of this incident and its impact on market expectations.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, several months ago, Donald Trump offered JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon the position of Federal Reserve Chair during a White House meeting, but Dimon took it as a joke [1]. Subsequently, Trump publicly denied having offered the position to Dimon on the Truth Social platform [2]. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Justice has issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, launching a criminal investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell [3].

Dimon publicly defended Powell, stating clearly that "any action that weakens the Federal Reserve’s independence is not a good idea" [4]. As the most influential banker on Wall Street, this statement carries significant weight. In an interview, Dimon also said that he would consider serving as Treasury Secretary if asked, but explicitly ruled out the possibility of serving as Federal Reserve Chair, stating "absolutely no chance" [5].

Trump responded to this by saying that Dimon "may want higher interest rates, maybe he can make more money that way". When asked whether he planned to fire Powell, Trump stated "right now we are in a bit of a wait-and-see mode", but also emphasized that "the president should have a say in the Federal Reserve’s decisions" [6]. In addition, Trump plans to sue JPMorgan within the next two weeks, citing the bank’s "cancellation of his bank account services" after the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot [2].

This series of incidents has heightened market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and central bank governors of other major economies also issued a joint statement emphasizing that "central bank independence is the cornerstone of price, financial, and economic stability" [4]. This attention from the global financial community reflects deep market concerns about the politicization of monetary policy.

The market currently has the following expectations regarding the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve:

Market pricing may reflect considerations of the following factors: if the Federal Reserve’s independence is undermined, the credit foundation of the U.S. dollar may be challenged; meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury yield curve may become distorted due to policy uncertainty. Investors need to closely monitor Treasury auctions and changes in market liquidity in the coming weeks [7].

JPMorgan faces the risk of being sued, which has directly impacted its stock performance. The deterioration of relations between Dimon and Trump, as well as Wall Street’s widespread support for Powell, indicate a deepening rift between the financial industry and the government [4].

The far-reaching impacts of this incident are as follows:

1. Short-Term Market Volatility
   : Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership may increase short-term market volatility, particularly for interest rate-sensitive assets.

2. Medium-Term Policy Expectations
   : If the DOJ investigation continues, it may affect the credibility of Powell’s future decisions, thereby altering the market’s expected path for monetary policy.

3. Long-Term Institutional Impacts
   : This incident may serve as a critical test of whether the Federal Reserve’s independence can be maintained, setting a precedent for the institutional design of central banks worldwide.

It is recommended that investors closely follow subsequent developments, including the progress of the DOJ investigation, congressional reactions, and Powell’s remarks at the press conference following the January 29 interest rate decision.

[1] New York Post - "Trump says he has no plans to fire Powell after offering job to JPMorgan’s Dimon report" (https://nypost.com/2026/01/15/business/trump-says-he-has-no-plans-to-fire-powell-after-offering-job-to-jpmorgans-dimon-report/)

[2] Intellectia - "Trump Denies Offering JPMorgan CEO Dimon Fed Chair Position" (https://intellectia.ai/news/stock/trump-denies-offering-jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-fed-chair-position)

[3] YouTube/Mint - "Top Bankers Like Jamie Dimon Publicly Defend Powell" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twUZvXJShkw)

[4] Politico - "Dimon, Wall Street heavyweights rally around Powell" (https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/13/dimon-wall-street-heavyweights-rally-around-powell-00724341)

[5] Benzinga/Facebook - "Jamie Dimon Rules Out Fed Chair Role, Open to Treasury Secretary" (https://www.facebook.com/Benzinga/posts/banking-giant-jpmorgan-chase-cos-nysejpm-ceo-jamie-dimon-firmly-ruled-out-any-po/1462921335833532/)

[6] Reuters - Quoted from Trump’s interview in the New York Post report

[7] Jinling AI Financial Database Market Analysis