Analysis of the 'Investment Copper Bar' Phenomenon and Implications for Metal Market Investing

Based on the market data and technical analysis I have obtained, below is an in-depth analysis report on the ‘investment copper bar’ phenomenon:

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The recently launched “investment copper bar” products in Shenzhen Shuibei Market are priced at (approx. RMB 0.19 per gram), adopting a pre-order sales model, with merchants clearly stating [1][2]. This phenomenon reflects the “investment diffusion effect” where metal investment enthusiasm spreads from gold and silver to industrial metals.

Feature	Details
Pre-sale Price	RMB 190 per 1000 grams
Sales Model	Pre-order, advance reservation required
Buyback Policy	Sale-only, no buyback
Processing Fee Issue	Merchants believe processing fees may be higher than the value of copper itself

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Based on the latest technical analysis data of COMEX Copper Futures (HG)[0]:

• Current Price:
  $26.16 per pound
  (approx. RMB 415 per kilogram)
• Full-year 2025 Increase:
  +39.97%
• Decline from Historical High ($28.72):
  -8.91%
• Increase from Historical Low ($16.80):
  +55.71%

Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
20-Day Moving Average	$27.34	Short-term Pressure
50-Day Moving Average	$26.99	Medium-term Downtrend
200-Day Moving Average	$23.21	✅ Long-term Uptrend
RSI(14)	26.18	⚠️ Oversold Zone
Annualized Volatility	19.89%	High Volatility

• ✅ Long-term Trend:
  Uptrend
  (Price above 200-day moving average)
• 🔻 Medium-term Trend:
  Downtrend
  (Price below 50-day moving average)
• ⚠️ RSI indicates potential short-term oversold condition, with rebound opportunities

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Risk Dimension	Risk Level	Detailed Analysis
Liquidity Risk	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Extremely High)	No official buyback channels, can only be liquidated as raw materials
Price Fluctuation Risk	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High)	Annualized volatility of nearly 20%, with amplitude up to 50%+
Buyback Discount Risk	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Extremely High)	Merchants clearly state that buyback may be based on raw material prices
Processing Fee Erosion Risk	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High)	Processing fees may exceed the value of the copper itself
Storage Cost Risk	⭐⭐⭐ (Medium)	Bear storage costs similar to gold

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Comparison Dimension	Gold	Silver	Physical Copper Bars
Financial Attribute	Strong (Global reserve asset)	Relatively Strong (Dual attributes)	Weak (Pure industrial raw material)
Liquidity	High (Buyback available at banks/jewelry stores)	Medium	❌ Extremely Low (No buyback channels)
Processing Fee Ratio	Low (1-3%)	Medium (3-5%)	⚠️ May be higher than the value of copper itself
Liquidation Channels	Mature and well-established	Partial channels	❌ Only raw material recycling
Buyback Discount	Low (2-5%)	Medium (5-10%)	⚠️ May involve significant discounts
Price Volatility	Low	Medium-High	High

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1. Lack of a Mature Recycling System
   • Unlike investment gold bars, copper bars lack unified recycling standards and channels
   • Merchants clearly state “sale-only, no buyback”, leaving investors in a dilemma of “easy to buy, hard to sell”

2. Severe Processing Fee Erosion
   • The pre-sale price of RMB 190 per 1000 grams includes processing fees
   • Merchants point out that processing fees may be higher than the value of copper itself, compressing value-added space

3. Opaque Buyback Pricing
   • Even if buyback is available, it will most likely be calculated based on raw material prices
   • Lack of a standardized pricing mechanism similar to that of gold bars

4. Lack of Price Discovery Mechanism
   • The correlation between copper bar prices and international copper prices is questionable
   • It is difficult to determine whether there is a premium or discount

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1. Law of Enthusiasm Spread
   : After gold and silver bars became “hit products”, investment enthusiasm spread to industrial metals such as copper bars, reflecting investors’ widespread pursuit of physical assets, but risks of “hotspot speculation” should be heeded[1][2]

2. Asset Allocation Logic
   : Precious metals have monetary attributes and hedging functions, while industrial metals (such as copper) mainly reflect industrial demand, with fundamental differences in investment logic

3. Differences in Risk Perception
   : Gold is supported by a mature buyback system, while copper bars lack such guarantees. Although the investment threshold seems lower, the actual risk is higher

Investment Demand	Recommended Method	Risk Warning
Asset Preservation/Hedging	Physical gold bars, bank gold accumulation plans, gold ETFs	Pay attention to storage costs and buyback channels
Industrial Metal Exposure	Copper futures, copper ETFs, copper mining stocks	Monitor high volatility
Copper Price Speculation	Futures/CFD contracts	Requires professional knowledge and risk control capabilities
Avoid	❌ Physical copper bars (lack of liquidity guarantees)	High processing fees, no buyback channels

• Copper ETFs (e.g., CPER): Track copper prices with strong liquidity
• Copper Mining Stocks (e.g., FCX, SCCO): Benefit from copper price increases and production expansion
• Copper Futures: Enable precise exposure management for professional investors

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There are significant divergences in the market regarding copper price prospects[1][2]:

• Bulls
  : Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 to $12,750 per ton
• Bears
  : Citigroup believes “January may be the annual high”, and investors should be wary of a pullback after tariff expectations are realized

1. Incidents of gold raw material suppliers and jewelry stores “defaulting and fleeing” have occurred in Shuibei Market before[1]
2. As an emerging investment product, copper bars have an immature market and lack standardized regulation
3. Investors should be wary of merchant marketing rhetoric and rationally evaluate investment value

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Assessment Dimension	Risk Conclusion
Liquidity	❌ Extremely Low - No official buyback channels, difficult to liquidate
Buyback Value	❌ Highly Uncertain - May involve significant discounts based on raw material prices
Investment Value	⚠️ Limited - Severe processing fee erosion, lack of financial attribute support

: Given multiple risks in copper bar investment such as liquidity depletion, uncertain buyback value, and processing fee eroding profits, it is recommended that investors . If seeking copper exposure, prioritize standardized financial instruments such as copper ETFs, copper mining stocks, or futures, rather than physical copper bars.

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[1] Securities Times - “Investment Copper Bars” Emerge in Shenzhen Shuibei? Reporters Verify→ (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3598474.html)

[2] Sina Finance - Copper Bar Investment Draws Attention: A New Hotspot in Shuibei or a Speculation Trap? (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-18/doc-inhhsscc9064063.shtml)

[0] Gilin AI Financial Database - Real-time Quotes and Technical Analysis Data of COMEX Copper Futures (HG)