2026 Risk Assessment Report on Hydrogen-Carbon Coproduction Technology

Based on the latest information searched, I will provide you with a detailed 2026 Risk Assessment Report on Hydrogen-Carbon Coproduction Technology.

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Hydrogen-carbon coproduction technology is a green process that jointly produces hydrogen and carbon materials (such as graphene, carbon nanotubes, etc.). Compared with traditional highly polluting hydrogen and carbon production processes, it has significant advantages such as avoiding greenhouse gas emissions and realizing green and high-value utilization of methane resources [1].

The ‘Ex-situ Electrocatalytic Complete Decomposition of Hydrogen Sulfide for Hydrogen and Sulfur Production Technology’ developed by the team led by Academician Li Can at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, CAS, passed scientific and technological achievement evaluation on January 6, 2026, and was recognized as reaching the international leading level [2].

The core breakthroughs of this technology include:

• Continuous Operation Time
  : The industrial demonstration project has operated continuously for more than 1000 hours, achieving complete conversion of hydrogen sulfide (hydrogen sulfide content in tail gas is less than 1 ppm)
• Product Quality
  : Product sulfur purity is greater than 99.95%, hydrogen purity is greater than 99.999%
• Technology Scale
  : An industrial demonstration project for 100,000 cubic meters/year hydrogen sulfide elimination and resource utilization has been launched
• Intellectual Property
  : 26 patents have been applied for, 12 of which have been authorized

The team led by Researcher Yu Qingkai at the Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, CAS, is tackling the continuous operation problem of cracking reactors, with the goal of

[1].

• Technical Route
  : Natural gas cracking hydrogen-carbon coproduction technology
• Industrialization Progress
  : Founded Shanghai Hydrogen Field New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (2021)
• Application Scenarios
  : Has more cost and efficiency advantages in distributed scenarios such as chemical industry and hydrogen refueling stations
• Demonstration Plan
  : Plans to realize demonstration application in Sichuan Province, which is rich in natural gas resources, in 2026

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Risk Type	Risk Description	Impact Level	Risk Level
Long-term continuous operation	Cracking reactors operate continuously in high-temperature and high-pressure environments, increasing the risk of equipment wear and material fatigue	Equipment failure, production shutdown	High
Thermal stress accumulation	Frequent starts/stops and temperature changes lead to concentrated thermal stress, which may cause equipment deformation or cracking	Safety hazard	High
Coking deposition	Coke produced during cracking deposits on the inner wall of the reactor, affecting heat transfer efficiency	Efficiency decline	Medium-High

According to industry research reports, cracking reactors and related valve systems face the following material failure risks [3]:

1. Hydrogen Embrittlement Risk
   : After valves are used in high-temperature and high-pressure hydrogen environments, hydrogen can react with carbon atoms in steel to form methane, causing decarburization and microcrack formation in steel, leading to irreversible deterioration of steel. The higher the temperature and hydrogen partial pressure, the more severe the hydrogen corrosion of steel.

2. Low-Temperature Brittleness
   : The low-temperature environment of liquid hydrogen and hydrogen slurry systems reduces material toughness, increases material crack sensitivity, and may trigger safety accidents.

3. Metal Hydrogen Embrittlement
   : After metals absorb internal or external hydrogen, when the local hydrogen concentration reaches saturation, it will cause a decrease in material toughness and plasticity, induce cracks, or cause delayed fracture.

Hydrogen has the following safety risks due to its special physical and chemical properties:

• High Permeability
  : Hydrogen can easily leak externally through positions such as valve bodies, covers, non-metallic material gaskets, and valve stem packings
• Rapid Diffusion
  : After hydrogen leaks, it will diffuse rapidly, causing the flammable and explosive area to expand continuously, and the diffusion process is invisible to the naked eye
• Low-Temperature Contraction
  : The temperature drops sharply during hydrogen liquefaction, which can cause material contraction. Due to different deformation and contraction amounts of various components, deformation inconsistency occurs, resulting in increased stress in the structure and leakage of valve sealing surfaces

According to research literature on biomass gasification technology, there is an interactive relationship among tar, alkali metals, and slagging [4]:

• Alkali metals catalyze tar cracking
• Tar condensation will adsorb alkali metals and aggravate deposition
• Increases treatment difficulty, leading to complex process systems, increased investment, and high operating costs

Stage	Risk Points	Technical Challenges
Laboratory stage	Controllable process parameters	Stable conditions, easy to regulate
Pilot scale stage	Scale-up effect	Parameter changes, reduced stability
Industrialization stage	Continuous operation stability	Long-term operation reliability verification

According to the report Hydrogen Energy Faces 5 Bottlenecks, How Can China’s Industry Break Through?, the systemic risks faced by the hydrogen energy industry include [5]:

• Complex Approval Process
  : A hydrogen energy project requires approval from more than 10 departments on average from project initiation to production, taking 18 to 24 months
• Incomplete Standard System
  : The positioning of hydrogen energy in the national energy strategy is not yet clear, and the relevant standard system needs to be improved

• Separation of Resource Endowment and Market Space
  : Clean energy resources for renewable energy hydrogen production are mainly concentrated in the ‘Three Norths’ (Northeast, North, and Northwest China) regions, while hydrogen energy application markets are concentrated in the eastern coastal and central industrial-intensive regions

• High Costs
  : Currently, the cost of green hydrogen is about 20-30 RMB per kilogram, which is much higher than that of gray hydrogen (10-15 RMB per kilogram)
• Weak Infrastructure
  : As of the end of 2024, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China exceeds 500, but the distribution is uneven, mainly concentrated in coastal provinces

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Based on the above analysis, the comprehensive risk assessment of hydrogen-carbon coproduction technology is as follows:

                    Safety Risk
                         ▲
                        /|\
                       / | \
                      /  |  \
                     ◆   |   ◆
                    /    |    \
           Continuous Operation ─────┼───── Material Failure
           Stability    /    |    \    (70%)
           (75%)   /     |     \
                  /      |      \
                 /       |       \
                ◆        |        ◆
               /         |         \
              /          |          \
             /           |           \
            /            |            \
           ◆─────────────┼─────────────◆
          Technology        System Integration       Industrialization
          Maturity      Complexity         Supporting
          (65%)       (60%)         (55%)

Risk Category	Risk Item	Risk Level	Probability of Occurrence	Impact Level
Technical Risk	Continuous operation stability of cracking reactors	High	Medium	Severe
Technical Risk	Material hydrogen embrittlement failure	High	Medium	Severe
Technical Risk	Hydrogen leakage	High	Medium	Severe
Systemic Risk	Process system complexity	Medium-High	Medium	Moderate
Systemic Risk	Scale-up	Medium-High	Medium-High	Moderate
Industrial Risk	Institutional and mechanism	Medium	High	Moderate
Industrial Risk	Mismatch between resources and market	Medium	Medium	Moderate
Industrial Risk	Insufficient economy	Medium-High	High	Moderate

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• Target
  : Increase the stable continuous operation time of cracking reactors from the current level to one month or more
• Measures
  :
  • Optimize the structural design of reactors to reduce concentrated thermal stress
  • Develop new materials resistant to high temperature and hydrogen corrosion
  • Establish an intelligent monitoring system to monitor equipment status in real time

• Use hydrogen embrittlement-resistant alloy materials (such as high-Cr alloys)
• Surface coating technology to enhance hydrogen permeation resistance
• Regular material inspection and replacement mechanism

• Multi-level hydrogen leakage detection system
• Emergency shutdown and pressure relief devices
• Improved safety interlock system

• Establish a joint approval mechanism for hydrogen energy projects
• Clarify the division of responsibilities of management entities
• Shorten the approval cycle to within 12 months

• Develop special standards for hydrogen-carbon coproduction technology
• Unify safety specifications and quality requirements
• Promote alignment with international standards

• Green hydrogen subsidy policies
• Tax incentives and financing support
• Special funds for demonstration projects

2026 ─────────────────────────────────────────►
│
├── Q1-Q2: Technology R&D Phase
│   ├── Breakthrough in continuous operation of cracking reactors
│   ├── Material stability verification
│   └── System integration optimization
│
├── Q3-Q4: Demonstration Application Phase (Sichuan)
│   ├── 100,000 cubic meter-scale demonstration project
│   ├── Operation data collection and analysis
│   └── Process parameter optimization and finalization
│
└── 2027 and beyond: Large-scale Promotion
    ├── Multi-site layout across the country
    ├── Collaborative development of the industrial chain
    └── International market expansion

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2026 is a critical year for the development of China’s hydrogen-carbon coproduction technology. The breakthrough progress of the two CAS teams marks that this technology has entered an important transition period from the laboratory to industrialization. However, core technical risks such as

are still the main bottlenecks restricting industrialization.

Risk Type	Short-term (2026)	Medium-term (2027-2028)	Long-term (2029-2030)
Technical Risk	High, requiring key R&D efforts	Gradually decrease	Basically controllable
Systemic Risk	Medium-High, requiring optimization	Significantly decrease	Continuous optimization
Industrial Risk	Medium-High, requiring policy support	Gradually improve	Form a complete system

Based on current technological progress and risk control measures, it is expected that:

1. Within 2026
   : The continuous operation time of cracking reactors is expected to exceed one month
2. 2027-2028
   : The first batch of commercial demonstration projects will be put into operation
3. 2029-2030
   : A mature industrial system will be formed, and costs will be significantly reduced

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[1] China News Service - “Chinese Scientists Break Through Hydrogen-Carbon Coproduction Technology, Zero-Pollution Hydrogen Production Facilitates Energy Transition” (https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/01-18/10554059.shtml)

[2] Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, CAS - “Ex-situ Electrocatalytic Complete Decomposition of Hydrogen Sulfide for Hydrogen and Sulfur Production Technology Passes Scientific and Technological Achievement Evaluation” (https://www.dicp.ac.cn/xwdt/kyjz/202601/t20260106_8096190.html)

[3] Huatai Securities - “Machinery: Domestic Valve Substitution Accelerates Under Resonant Multiple Demands” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2026-01-08/doc-inhfpwvc1541360.shtml)

[4] People’s Daily - “Analysis of Technical Routes and Development Trends of Biomass Gasification” (http://paper.people.com.cn/zgnyb/pc/attachement/202512/22/81020906-7434-49b2-9b29-3bc86f143caa.pdf)

[5] Energy New Media - “Hydrogen Energy Faces 5 Bottlenecks, How Can China’s Industry Break Through?” (https://www.nationalee.com/newsinfo/8932991.html)

[6] Chinese Academy of Sciences - “Hydrogen Production + Sulfur, New Technology Facilitates Industrial Green and Low-Carbon Development” (https://www.cas.cn/cg/zh/202601/t20260107_5095421.shtml)