Analysis of Integration Effects of Guolian Minsheng's Acquisition of Minsheng Securities and Valuation of the Brokerage Sector

Based on systematically collected data and calculation results from professional analysis tools, I provide you with an in-depth analysis report on the integration effects of Guolian Minsheng’s acquisition of Minsheng Securities and the valuation outlook of the brokerage sector.

---

Guolian Securities’ acquisition of Minsheng Securities is the first market-oriented brokerage M&A case implemented after the Central Financial Work Conference and the new “Nine Regulations”, marking a milestone [1]. On February 14, 2025, Guolian Securities was officially renamed “Guolian Minsheng Securities”, signifying that the integration of the two parties has entered a substantive stage. The executive team has completed integration: Gu Wei, President of Guolian Group, serves as Party Secretary, Ge Xiaobo serves as Chairman and President, with several vice presidents and core management positions [2]. As of the end of June 2025, the regulatory approval and asset transfer for the company’s acquisition of 99.26% of Minsheng Securities’ shares have been completed [3].

The 2025 half-year performance forecast shows that the company achieved a net profit attributable to parent shareholders of 1.129 billion yuan, an increase of 1.041 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of [1]. Excluding the impact of Minsheng Securities’ consolidation, based on the simple total of 422 million yuan from Guolian Securities (88 million yuan) and Minsheng Securities (334 million yuan) in the first half of 2024, the first half of 2025 still achieved a substantial growth of , fully verifying the “1+1>2” synergistic integration effect [1].

Business Segment	2024 Revenue (CNY 100 million)	2025 Revenue (CNY 100 million)	Year-on-Year Growth
Brokerage and Wealth Management	3.78	11.95	216%
Securities Investment	0.12	16.87	+140x
Investment Banking	1.73	5.44	214%
Asset Management	3.21	2.94	-8%

Data Source: Collated from listed company announcements and brokerage research reports [2][3]

• Guolian Securities’ Strengths:
  Formed competitive advantages in wealth management, asset management and derivatives sectors [1]
• Minsheng Securities’ Strengths:
  Explored new growth engines in “investment + investment banking + research” and fixed income businesses [1]

• Guolian Securities is based in the Yangtze River Delta, the region with the largest economic volume and fastest development speed, and has deep roots in Wuxi [1]
• Minsheng Securities’ branches are mainly concentrated in Henan and Shandong. After integration, the scale of wealth management clients has been rapidly expanded, achieving regional complementarity [1]

Realized optimal allocation in capital, talent, business and other aspects, promoting the complementary advantages of both parties [1].

The integrated Guolian Minsheng Securities has formed a new “Two Super, Four Strong” market pattern with leading brokerages such as Guotai Haitong and CITIC Securities [2]. Among the IPO projects accepted in June 2025, it ranked

with 2 Shanghai Main Board, 2 ChiNext, and 5 Beijing Stock Exchange proposed listed companies; the IPO of Chaoying Electronics on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was successfully approved, achieving “improvement in both quantity and quality” of investment banking business [2]. In terms of research business, it entered the top 5 in the industry with 460 million yuan in revenue and 4.22% market share in 2024, growing against the trend under the background of industry pressure from commission reform [2].

---

Indicator	Guolian Minsheng	Industry Average	Evaluation
2025E PB	1.36x	1.28x	Slightly Above Average
2025E PE	36.6x	19.4x	High (Reflects High Growth Expectations)
Forecasted ROE	15.2%	8.2%	Significantly Leading
Net Profit Growth Rate (2025E)	+376%	+62%	Substantially Leading

Guolian Minsheng’s

, which is almost the industry average (8.2%), reflecting its strong profitability and asset utilization efficiency.

From the PB-ROE perspective, Guolian Minsheng presents a typical “High ROE - Reasonable PB” feature. Industrial Securities forecasts that the company’s net profit attributable to parent shareholders will be 1.893 billion yuan, 2.067 billion yuan, and 2.315 billion yuan in 2025-2027, corresponding to PB ratios of 1.36x, 1.32x, and 1.27x respectively [2]. At the current valuation level, the company has significant value depression characteristics.

---

According to the latest data, the current valuation level of the CSI All-Share Securities Index:

• PE-TTM: 17.41x
  , at the
  14.09%
  percentile of the past decade [4]
• PB: 1.50x
  , at the
  40.9%
  percentile of the past decade [4]

The brokerage sector presents a typical “

” feature. In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed brokerages achieved a total operating income of 419.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of ; the total net profit attributable to parent shareholders was 169.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of [4]. However, the year-to-date increase of the Securities Index is only 3%, significantly lower than the 15% increase of the Shanghai Composite Index [5].

1. Shift in Market Style Preferences:
   Current market capital tends to favor growth sectors such as technology and new energy, with low attention to traditional financial sectors
2. Continuous Pressure on Commission Rates:
   Intensified competition among internet brokerages leads to downward pressure on commission rates
3. Volatility of Proprietary Business:
   Fluctuations in the equity market affect the stability of brokerages’ proprietary income
4. Refinancing Concerns:
   The market has concerns about large-scale refinancing by brokerages

---

The pace of integration in the securities industry has accelerated significantly in recent years. On December 17, 2025, a leading brokerage announced a plan to absorb and merge two other peer institutions via share swap [4]. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing praised the Guotai Haitong merger case as a “model for the smooth implementation of landmark restructuring in the securities industry” at the 8th Member Congress of the Securities Association of China, and pointed out that the case has initially achieved the “1+1>2” synergistic effect [5].

• Consolidation brings scale expansion and earnings growth (Guolian Minsheng case: net profit forecast to increase by 406%)
• Increased market share enhances pricing power
• Optimized resource allocation reduces operating costs

• Increased industry concentration enhances the pricing power of leading institutions
• Scale effects reduce unit costs
• Complementary business licenses bring revenue synergy

• Lays the foundation for building “world-class investment banks”
• Enhances the overall competitiveness and valuation central level of the industry

The CSRC has clearly proposed the “Support the Superior, Restrict the Inferior” orientation, appropriately “relaxing” restrictions for high-quality institutions, further optimizing risk control indicators, and moderately expanding capital space and leverage limits [5]. This provides policy support for leading brokerages to become stronger and better through M&A and restructuring. It is expected that the M&A and restructuring of leading brokerages will continue to advance in an orderly manner in the future, the industry concentration will increase, and the competitive advantages of leading brokerages will be further consolidated [4].

---

1. Significant Integration Effects:
   Explosive performance growth verifies the “1+1>2” synergistic effect
2. Strong Business Complementarity:
   The advantages of wealth management and investment banking are superimposed, and regional resources are complementary
3. ROE Leads the Industry:
   The 15.2% ROE is almost twice the industry average
4. Investment Banking Breakthrough:
   Has ranked among the top 4 in the industry, reshaping the market pattern

1. Valuation at Historical Low:
   PB of 1.5x and PE of 17.4x provide a safety margin
2. Strong Fundamental Repair:
   There is a serious mismatch between performance growth and valuation performance
3. Continuous M&A and Restructuring:
   Industry pattern optimization is expected to catalyze valuation repair
4. Favorable Policies Frequent:
   Regulatory “Support the Superior, Restrict the Inferior” provides valuation support

1. Continuous Performance Verification:
   The synergistic effects of M&A cases such as Guolian Minsheng continue to be realized
2. Favorable Policy Implementation:
   Relaxation of leverage limits, expansion of capital replenishment channels
3. Market Style Rotation:
   Incremental capital drives style rotation
4. Accelerated Industry Integration:
   More M&A cases increase sector popularity

• Risk of sharp fluctuations in the capital market
• Risk of M&A integration falling short of expectations
• Risk of policy implementation pace falling short of expectations
• Risk of continuous downward pressure on industry commission rates

---

[1] Sina Finance - “Guolian Minsheng’s Surge in Performance: M&A Effects Shift from Addition to Multiplication” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-07-11/doc-inffcark7465586.shtml)

[2] Industrial Securities - “Guolian Minsheng H1 2025 Report Commentary: Earnings Realization from M&A” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202508311737189033_1.pdf)

[3] Shanghai Stock Exchange - Verification Opinion of Guolian Minsheng Securities Underwriting & Sponsoring Co., Ltd. on Major Asset Restructuring (http://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202512/81391a_20251210_IIIV.pdf)

[4] Tide News - “At the Year-End Crossroads, Why is the Brokerage Sector Worth Attention?” (https://tidenews.com.cn/tmh_news.html?id=694a62c55dfbbd0001b433a1)

[5] Securities Times - “High-Quality Institutions Embrace ‘Relaxation’, Valuation Repair of Brokerage Sector Expected?” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3533201.html)

[6] Jiemian News - “Investment Opportunities in the Brokerage Sector Become a Hot Topic Again” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3533201.html)

[7] Eastmoney - “Analysis of Valuation-Performance Mismatch in the Brokerage Sector” (https://www.jiemian.com/article/13778648.html)