Analysis of the Impact of Kiln Cold Repair Decisions on Photovoltaic Glass Enterprises

Based on collected data, I will systematically analyze

from multiple dimensions.

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Kiln cold repair refers to a maintenance method where glass melting furnaces are shut down after a period of operation for equipment inspection, technological transformation, or replacement of refractory materials. Typical characteristics of photovoltaic glass kilns include:

Indicator	Value/Description
Typical Kiln Scale	1000-1200 tons/day (one kiln with multiple lines)
Cold Repair Cycle	Major overhaul every 8-12 years typically
Cold Repair Cost	Tens of millions to over 100 million yuan per kiln [1]
Production Ramp-Up Period After Resumption	2-3 months [2]

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• The cold repair cost for a single kiln ranges from tens of millions to over 100 million yuan
  [1]
• Includes costs for refractory material replacement, equipment transformation, maintenance labor, etc.

• Full production shutdown during cold repair, with no output
• For large kilns with daily production capacity of thousands of tons, the loss from one day of shutdown is huge
• Enterprises generally choose in-production “hot repair” as an alternative to cold repair to maintain basic production [1]

• If enterprises choose to reduce kiln production (such as blocking kiln ports to limit production), it will accordingly
  increase average production costs
  and reduce the market competitiveness of the company’s products [1]

The current photovoltaic glass industry faces severe supply-demand imbalance:

Indicator	Data
2024 Global Photovoltaic Glass Demand	21.38 million tons
2024 Domestic Production Capacity	23.43 million tons (exceeding global demand) [1]
Industry Operating Rate	Less than 70% [1]
Inventory Days	Over 30 days [1]
Price of 2.0mm Coated Photovoltaic Glass	Fell from the 2020 peak of 40 yuan/sqm to about 10 yuan/sqm [1]
Losses of First-Tier Manufacturers	About 1 yuan/sqm [1]

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[2]:

Time	Cold Repair Capacity (10,000 Tons)
Full Year 2024	2.563
Since 2025 (as of January 9)	0.28
Production Capacity Affected by Kiln Port Blocking	About 1.0

On June 29, 2024, the top ten photovoltaic glass manufacturers reached a consensus to collectively cut production by 30% starting from July, mainly achieving capacity contraction through the following methods [1][2]:

• Shut down kilns for cold repair
• Block kiln ports to limit production
• Suspend or postpone the commissioning of new projects

• Cash Flow Pressure
  : Enterprises may be forced to shut down only when continuous losses lead to tight cash flow or even cash flow rupture [1]
• Inventory Adjustment
  : After cold repair, the inventory days of photovoltaic glass decreased from about 20 days to about 7 days [3]
• Price Stability
  : Cold repair measures curbed the continuous downward trend of photovoltaic glass prices since April [1]

• Market Share Change
  : Leading enterprises, relying on scale advantages and financial strength, are expected to passively gain market share growth brought by capacity clearance during the industry trough [3]
• Technology Upgrade Window
  : Some enterprises use the cold repair opportunity to carry out technological transformation and equipment upgrading

Dimension	Impact
Capacity Clearance	Inefficient production capacity exits at an accelerated pace, and the industry structure is gradually optimized [4]
Market Concentration	Duopoly pattern is strengthened (Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass monopolize half of the industry’s market share) [3]
Competition Strategy	Shift from “price war” to “technology + cost” competition

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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Dilemma of Cold Repair Decision          │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                             │
│  Option A: Shut Down for Cold Repair                        │
│  ├── Advantages: Thorough maintenance, reduced unit cost    │
│  ├── Disadvantages: Loss of tens of millions to over 100    │
│  │                  million yuan, missing market rebound     │
│  │                  opportunities                            │
│  └── Risks: Uncertainty in resuming production, 2-3 month   │
│              ramp-up period                                 │
│                                                             │
│  Option B: Maintain Production with Hot Repair               │
│  ├── Advantages: Maintain market share, seize potential     │
│  │                opportunities                              │
│  ├── Disadvantages: Rising marginal costs, expanded losses  │
│  └── Risks: Declining product quality, accelerated equipment│
│              aging                                          │
│                                                             │
│  Option C: Futures Hedging                                  │
│  ├── Advantages: Offset partial production losses           │
│  ├── Disadvantages: Cannot fully cover losses               │
│  └── Risks: Futures market volatility, hedging ratio limits │
│                                                             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

On July 1, 2024, the 6th Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized

, guiding enterprises to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1]. Subsequently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium with photovoltaic industry manufacturing enterprises to firmly implement relevant decisions and arrangements.

Against this backdrop:

• The photovoltaic glass segment was the first to implement industry self-discipline and achieved the best results
  [2]
• Through the consensus of a 30% collective production cut, the downward price trend was effectively controlled [1]
• Enterprises shifted from “vicious competition” to “coordinated production cuts to protect prices”

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Taking Flat Glass as an example to illustrate the financial impact of cold repair [3]:

Financial Indicators	First Half of 2024	YoY Change
Revenue	7.737 billion yuan	-27.66%
Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company	261 million yuan	-82.58%
Gross Profit Margin	About 10%	Significant decline

: The company conducted cold repair on some kilns to optimize its capacity structure, which had a certain impact on operating revenue.

Due to the continuous advancement of anti-cutthroat competition actions, the price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass rebounded from the bottom of 10 yuan/sqm to 13 yuan/sqm:

• At the end of September, the company’s inventory once dropped to 7 days (about 20 days at the beginning of July)
• Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was 376 million yuan, a sequential increase of 143% [3]

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Timing	Recommendation
Price Bottom Range	It is recommended to conduct cold repair to avoid greater losses
Before Demand Peak Season	Plan in advance and reserve a 2-3 month ramp-up period
Policy Support Period	Use the industry self-discipline window for capacity integration

1. Technology Upgrade
   : Use the cold repair period for kiln technological transformation to improve energy efficiency and reduce unit costs
2. Product Adjustment
   : Optimize product structure and increase the proportion of high-value-added products
3. Cost Control
   : Reduce raw material costs through bulk procurement and supply chain optimization
4. Hedging
   : Rational use of futures tools to hedge price fluctuation risks

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The impact of kiln cold repair decisions on photovoltaic glass enterprises is multi-dimensional:

Impact Dimension	Specific Performance
Cost Impact	Cold repair cost ranges from tens of millions to over 100 million yuan, and a 2-3 month ramp-up period is required to resume production
Capacity Impact	As of 2024, the cold repair capacity exceeds 28,000 tons, and the industry reached a consensus on a 30% production cut
Price Impact	Effectively curbed the downward price trend and promoted price rebound from the bottom
Pattern Impact	Accelerated the clearance of inefficient production capacity and strengthened the market position of leading enterprises
Financial Impact	Short-term losses expand, but it is conducive to the recovery of profitability in the medium and long term

The current photovoltaic glass industry is at the bottom of the cycle. As an important means of capacity regulation, kiln cold repair decisions need to comprehensively consider multiple factors such as cost, timing, and competition pattern. Against the backdrop of gradually improving industry self-discipline mechanisms, rational use of cold repair strategies can help enterprises navigate the cycle trough and achieve high-quality development.

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[1] CLS - “Crossroads of the Glass Industry: Hold On for Another Decade or Exit Now? | Anti-Cutthroat Competition in Progress” (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2097064)

[2] TF Securities - “Photovoltaic Glass: Cold Repair Accelerates Capacity Contraction, Price Expected to Rebound After the Holiday” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202501271642591930_1.pdf)

[3] Eastmoney - “Miserable! Why Leading Enterprises That Lose Money Even When Shut Down Can Still Monopolize the Industry” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260118124557256296540)

[4] Zhongshang Industrial Research Institute - “2025 China Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Map and Investment Layout Analysis” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_31987386)