Guosen Securities' Brokerage Business Surges 109%: Analysis on the Sustainability of Market Activity

Based on the latest data and analysis reports I have collected, I will now systematically analyze the 109% surge in Guosen Securities’ brokerage commission income and the sustainability of market activity for you.

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Based on publicly disclosed data, Guosen Securities delivered an eye-catching performance report in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]:

Indicator	Value	YoY Change
Total Operating Revenue	RMB 19.203 billion	+69.41%
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	RMB 9.137 billion	+87.28%
Net Brokerage Commission Income	RMB 6.362 billion	+109%
Net Proprietary Trading Income	RMB 9.922 billion	+74.37%
Net Interest Income	RMB 1.169 billion	+45.36%

Among these,

[1].

Guosen Securities’ brokerage business income surge mainly stems from the following factors:

1. Significant Growth in Market Trading Volume
   : In 2025, the A-share market’s trading activity hit a new historical record, with investor participation rising sharply. Combined with reinforced bull market expectations, this directly drove the growth of brokerage business income [1].

2. Contribution from Margin Trading and Securities Lending Business
   : Market activity drove an increase in the balance of margin trading and securities lending, leading to higher interest income, which became an important engine for performance growth [1].

3. Synergistic Effect of Proprietary Trading Business
   : Net proprietary trading income reached RMB 9.922 billion, up 74.37% year-on-year. The rise in the stock market drove the fair value recovery of equity investments [1].

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The A-share market performed strongly in 2025, with all major indices posting significant gains [2][3]:

Index	Annual Increase	Notes
Shanghai Composite Index	+18.41%	Largest annual increase since 2020
Shenzhen Component Index	+29.87%	—
ChiNext Index	+49.57%	—
Hang Seng Index	+27.77%	Hong Kong stocks also performed strongly

:

• Annual trading volume in 2025 remained above the RMB 2 trillion mark [2]
• On January 12, 2026, single-day trading volume exceeded
  RMB 3.64 trillion
  , hitting a new historical high [3]
• 1.5421 million new margin trading and securities lending accounts were opened, hitting a 10-year high, an increase of over 530,000 compared to 2024, representing a growth rate of over 50% [4]

Incremental capital entering the A-share market in 2025 featured “insurance capital and regulatory support, and existing capital increasing positions” [5]:

1. Leveraged Capital Accelerates Entry
   : As of the end of 2025, the market-wide margin trading balance surged from RMB 1.85 trillion at the end of 2024 to RMB 2.52 trillion, representing a growth rate of over 30% [4]

2. Shift in Household Asset Allocation
   : Against the backdrop of a shortage of high-return assets, the A-share market has become an important destination for household deposit migration [5]

3. Foreign Capital Return
   : Downward pressure on the US dollar has boosted demand for non-US asset allocation, and expectations of improving A-share fundamentals after bottoming out have attracted foreign capital back [5]

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• The 2025 “Regulations on the Classification and Evaluation of Securities Companies” included “guiding securities companies to better play their functional roles and enhance professional capabilities” in the general provisions [6]
• The “Implementation Opinions of the China Securities Association on Strengthening Self-Regulation to Promote High-Quality Development of the Securities Industry” proposed 28 measures to drive high-quality development of the industry [6]
• Regulators continue to advance capital market reforms, providing institutional guarantees for the market

According to calculations by China Merchants Securities, the net capital inflow into the A-share market is expected to further expand to

in 2026, providing liquidity support for a slow bull market [3]. Sources of incremental capital include:

• Continuous entry of insurance capital into the market
• Household deposit migration (especially among high-net-worth individuals)
• Foreign capital return and allocation demand
• Allocation changes brought by public fund reforms

• PPI is expected to turn positive in 2026, improving corporate profit expectations [5]
• The resonance of Sino-US economic cycles is expected to boost demand in pro-cyclical sectors [3]
• The “anti-involution” policy continues to advance, and supply-side optimization drives a turnaround for some distressed industries

Open Source Securities expects that brokerage business of securities firms will continue to record high year-on-year growth in Q1 2026 [7]. Huayuan Securities pointed out that capital and leverage constraints for leading institutions are expected to be marginally relaxed, the “slow bull” market characteristics are expected to continue, and the proprietary trading business is expected to continue to perform well overall [7].

The trading crowding degree of some sectors has reached a historical high. Data shows that the trading heat of sectors such as military industry, light industry, chemical industry, media, and textiles and apparel is all above the

[3], and related volatility risks need to be noted.

• The pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may affect global liquidity
• Sino-US trade relations still require continuous attention
• Lower-than-expected overseas AI capital expenditure may affect the technology sector

Not all businesses grew synchronously. Guosen Securities’ net investment banking commission income was RMB 608 million,

, and has shrunk for three consecutive years [1]. The business structure of securities firms shows obvious differentiation.

The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges have raised the margin requirement ratio for margin trading [4], indicating regulators’ prudent attitude towards leveraged capital, which may impose certain constraints on the growth rate of margin trading and securities lending.

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Sell-side research institutions have collectively turned bullish on the securities brokerage sector [7]:

• CICC
  : “It is the right time to invest in high-quality Chinese securities brokers” [7]
• Open Source Securities
  : Expects that net profit attributable to shareholders of listed securities firms (excluding non-recurring gains and losses) will increase by 61% year-on-year in 2025, and weighted ROE is expected to reach 8.8% [7]
• Huayuan Securities
  : Expects that the industry’s asset management business income will increase by 33% year-on-year, and the investment banking business may enter a clear recovery cycle in 2026 [7]

Institution	Core View	2026 Investment Themes
CITIC Securities	Investors are bullish, expects the market to fluctuate upward at the start of the year	Balancing external and domestic demand, policy support
China Merchants Securities	Pro-cyclical sectors dominate, transitioning to Phase III of the bull market	CSI 2000, ChiNext Index
GF Securities	Ample valuation safety margin, style tends to be more balanced	AI technology, rebalancing of supply and demand for cyclical products
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities	A full-scale bull market is expected to start in the second half of the year	Technology bull, bull market driven by China’s rising influence
Guotai Haitong Securities	The year’s plan starts in spring, optimistic about a strong start in spring	Technology growth, pro-cyclical sectors

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The 109% surge in Guosen Securities’ brokerage commission income is a typical epitome of the significant increase in A-share market activity in 2025. Analysis from multiple dimensions shows that market activity is expected to continue in

:

1. Policy Support
   : Regulators continue to advance capital market reforms, providing institutional guarantees
2. Ample Liquidity
   : Multiple capital sources including household asset allocation shift, foreign capital return, and insurance capital entering the market
3. Improved Fundamentals
   : Corporate profit expectations improve as PPI rebounds
4. Reform Dividends
   : The securities brokerage industry is transforming from “scale-driven” to “professional capability-driven”

However, investors also need to pay attention to potential risks:

• Some sectors have high valuations, and trading crowding degree needs to be watched out for
• External environment uncertainties may disturb market sentiment
• Potential impact of changes in regulatory policies on leveraged capital

Overall, against the backdrop of the confirmed internal trend of the “transformation bull market” and the early stage of household asset allocation shift, the

, but short-term volatility risks cannot be ignored.

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[1] Phoenix Net Finance - “Guosen Securities Faces Another Share Reduction! FAW Investment Cashes Out RMB 3 Billion in 7 Years, Making Precise ‘High-Selling’ Moves Multiple Times” (https://h5.ifeng.com/c/vivoArticle/v002aYmi2rPH1PMXidmaEHZPzqFo-_c659dgbHmG44j1UWhE__)

[2] Securities Times Network - “2025 A-Share Market Sees Largest Gain in Nearly 6 Years, 540 Stocks Double in Price” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3567950.html)

[3] Caijing Magazine - “A-Share Market Continues to Strengthen, Single-Day Trading Volume Hits Record High” (http://yuanchuang.caijing.com.cn/2026/0113/5136299.shtml)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald - “Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges Raise Margin Requirement Ratio for Margin Trading: What Changes Will Incremental Capital See in 2026?” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601143619015459.html)

[5] The Paper - “Top 10 Securities Firms Analyze 2026 A-Share Market: Bull Market Expected to Continue, Style May Tend to Be More Balanced” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32311683)

[6] Securities Times Network - “2025 Securities Industry Forges Ahead: From ‘One-Size-Fits-All’ to ‘A Hundred Flowers Bloom’” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3554818.html)

[7] CLS - “Securities Firms Successively Report Record Performance, Sell-Side Says It’s the Right Time to Invest in High-Quality Securities Brokers” (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2259770)