In-Depth Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of the 60% Surge in Memory Chip Prices Across the Industry Chain

In the first quarter of 2026, the global memory chip market is experiencing the strongest price hike cycle in history. According to the latest data from TrendForce[1]:

Product Category	Q1 2026 QoQ Growth	Remarks
Traditional DRAM Contract Price	+55%~60%	Record high
Server DRAM	+60%+	Driven by AI demand
NAND Flash Contract Price	+33%~38%	Persistent shortage
Consumer SSD	+40%+	Largest increase

South Korean media reports indicate that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to raise server DRAM prices by

in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025[2]. This increase is significantly higher than the amplitude of traditional memory chip cycles.

1. HBM Production Capacity Occupation
   : Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and other three major memory giants have redirected
   over 40% of their DRAM production capacity
   to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) production to meet the AI chip demand of tech giants such as NVIDIA, Google, and Amazon[3].

2. Surge in AI Server Memory Demand
   : A single AI server requires
   8 to 10 times
   the memory of a regular server, and AI servers currently consume
   over 53%
   of the global monthly memory production capacity[4].

3. Supplier Strategy Adjustment
   : Memory manufacturers have adopted a “
   Profit First, Shipment Control
   ” strategy, actively tightening supply to drive up prices[1].

---

Outbreak of AI Computing Demand
    ↓
HBM Capacity Expansion → Crowding Out of Traditional DRAM Capacity
    ↓
Tightened Memory Chip Supply → 55~60% Price Hike
    ↓
【Upstream Transmission】Increased Demand for Silicon Wafers and Equipment
    ↓
【Midstream Transmission】Rising Costs for Module and Packaging & Testing Factories
    ↓
【Downstream Transmission】10~30% Increase in Terminal Product Costs
    ↓
Terminal Manufacturers Raise Prices/Reduce Specifications/Compress Profits

The memory chip price hike first transmits to the upstream materials and equipment segment:

• Silicon Wafers
  : Demand for 12-inch silicon wafers has increased, with suppliers such as Shin-Etsu Chemical and SUMCO having fully booked orders[5]
• Photoresist and Specialty Gases
  : Supply of high-purity materials required for advanced processes is tight
• Semiconductor Equipment
  : Demand for HBM-specific packaging equipment (TSV, SiP, etc.) has surged

: Weak. Upstream material costs account for a low proportion of total memory chip costs (approximately 10%~15%), and material suppliers are fragmented with fierce competition.

This is the source of the price hike, driven mainly by the following factors:

1. Capacity Reallocation
   : The three major manufacturers have shifted capacity to higher-margin HBM and DDR5
2. AI Order Lock-In
   : SK Hynix’s DRAM, NAND, and HBM capacity has been fully booked through 2026, with clients including NVIDIA, OpenAI, etc.[6]
3. Inventory Depletion
   : Supplier inventories are near historical lows, and Q4 2025 shipment growth was mainly driven by increased wafer output

: Strongest. Memory chips are the “anchor” of the entire industry chain, and their price changes directly affect the costs of the entire chain.

has emerged in the packaging & testing segment:

• High-End Packaging (HBM, 3D NAND)
  : Demand has surged, capacity is tight, and bargaining power has improved[7]
• Traditional Packaging
  : Fierce competition limits price transmission
• Advanced Packaging Equipment
  : Suppliers of TSV (Through-Silicon Via) and SiP (System-in-Package) equipment have fully booked orders

: Structurally differentiated. Manufacturers with advanced packaging capabilities such as Huatian Technology and Changchuan Technology have benefited significantly[8].

Consumer memory modules have seen the most staggering price increases:

Product	Mid-2025 Price	January 2026 Price	Price Increase
16GB DDR5 Memory	800~900 yuan	2700+ yuan	+200%+
32GB DDR5 Kit	1300 yuan	2700 yuan	+107%
256GB Server Memory	25,000 yuan	48,000 yuan	+92%

: Extremely strong. Module manufacturers face the terminal market directly, so spot prices are the most sensitive. Module manufacturers such as Kingston and Longsys have experienced “volume and price growth”[9].

Terminal manufacturers face direct

, but their ability to bear it varies significantly:

Manufacturer Type	Price Hike Response Strategy	Typical Cases
Top-Tier Brands (Apple, Huawei)	Lock in capacity through long-term agreements, limiting price hikes to within 10%	Apple signed a long-term agreement with Samsung[7]
Second-Tier Brands (Honor, Xiaomi)	Raise prices of same-configured products by 300-500 yuan (10%~20% increase)	Xiaomi 17 Ultra starting price increased by 500 yuan[7]
PC Manufacturers (Lenovo, Dell, HP)	Adjust prices across the board by 10%~30%, with some top-tier models seeing increases over 5,000 yuan	Lenovo Legion Y7000 rose from 6,980 yuan to 7,400 yuan[10]
Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturers	Reduce specifications or control shipment rhythm	Some manufacturers canceled new product launch plans

---

:

• Mid-range smartphones: Memory costs account for
  15%~20%
  of BOM (Bill of Materials) costs
• High-end flagship phones: Memory costs account for
  10%~15%
  of BOM costs
• If memory prices rise by 30%~40%, the impact on the overall device BOM will be
  5%~8%
  [7]

:

• Shipments
  : IDC predicts that the global smartphone market size may decline by
  2.9%~5.2%
  year-on-year in 2026[4]
• Average Selling Price (ASP)
  : Expected to rise by
  3%~8%
• Specification Adjustments
  : Some manufacturers may slow down memory capacity upgrades (e.g., from 16GB back to 12GB)

:

• Apple
  : Leverages economies of scale and long-term agreements with Samsung to limit cost increases to within 10%
• Huawei
  : Has strong supply chain resilience through self-developed memory controllers and domestic substitution layout
• Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturers
  : Profit margins are directly compressed, and they may face market share loss

:

• In January 2026, mid-to-high-end laptops saw a general price increase of
  500~1500 yuan
  [10]
• Lenovo raised prices across its product line by approximately
  15%
• Dell commercial PCs saw a price increase of
  10%~30%
• Some top-tier models saw price increases of over
  5,000 yuan

:

• The promotion of AI PCs has driven memory configuration upgrades (from 8GB to 16GB/32GB)
• PC product values were undervalued in the past, and are now undergoing
  value restoration
  driven by AI computing demand[11]

:

• Omdia predicts that PC DRAM prices may rise by another
  50%
  in Q1 2026[10]
• Gartner analysts point out that the price hike may delay the popularization of consumer-grade AI PCs

:

• Modern smart electric vehicles have seen
  exponential growth
  in demand for memory chips
• A single high-end vehicle already requires
  64GB~256GB
  of memory, and is moving towards the terabyte level
• Smart cockpits and autonomous driving systems all require large-capacity, high-performance memory[12]

:

• Meng Qingpeng, Vice President of Supply Chain at Li Auto, warned that the supply satisfaction rate of memory chips for the automotive industry may be less than
  50%
  in 2026[12]
• William Li, Founder of NIO, stated that memory price hikes are “the biggest cost pressure this year”

:

• Per-vehicle costs increase by
  hundreds to thousands of yuan
• It is expected that by 2030, the proportion of memory costs in total vehicle hardware costs may exceed
  15%
  [12]

:

• NIO: Has not yet transmitted the price hike to terminal prices, absorbing pressure internally
• Some automakers: Considering reducing non-essential computing power and memory specifications
• The industry generally predicts that the supply chain dilemma may last
  3~5 years

:

• Industrial equipment has relatively low requirements for memory performance, and can use niche products
• AIoT chip manufacturers (such as Rockchip, Espressif Systems) are affected unevenly[13]
• NOR Flash prices have seen a low increase, with limited impact on downstream costs

:

• International giants have strategically exited the consumer and niche markets
• Terminal manufacturers have increased their focus on supply chain security
• Provides a gap-filling window for domestic manufacturers such as CXMT and YMTC

---

Manufacturer	Strategic Adjustment	Results
SK Hynix	Focuses on three business segments: HBM, AI DRAM, and AI NAND	Q3 2025 profit reached US$8 billion, up 62% year-on-year[6]
Samsung	12-layer HBM3E certified by NVIDIA	Stock price rose over 5% in a single day[14]
Micron	Discontinued consumer brand Crucial, focusing resources on data centers	Market share recovered, HBM market share reached 21%[14]

:

• Memory modules: Companies such as Longsys have full order books, achieving “volume and price growth”[9]
• Advanced packaging: Some product lines of Lion Semiconductor face capacity constraints, with some customers voluntarily accepting price hikes to secure supply[8]
• Testing equipment: Changchuan Technology and China Microelectronics Testing have sufficient orders, and their HBM advanced packaging equipment has passed validation[8]

:

• PC manufacturers such as Lenovo, Dell, and HP have initiated price adjustments
• Smartphone manufacturers such as Xiaomi and Honor have raised the pricing of new models

:

• Continue using the previous generation of SoC main chips
• Reduce specifications of non-core components such as camera modules
• Slow down the pace of memory capacity upgrades

:

• Sign long-term supply agreements to lock in volumes in advance
• Diversify procurement to spread risks
• Strengthen cooperation with domestic suppliers

---

Time Frame	Forecast Conclusion
Short-Term (1~2 Quarters)	Price hike trend continues, with DDR4 and mid-to-high-end NAND leading the increases
Mid-Term (H2 2026)	Depends on the sustainability of AI demand and the pace of capacity release
Long-Term (After 2027)	New capacity will be released in a concentrated manner, and the supply-demand gap may gradually narrow[5]

:

• Citigroup: 2026 DRAM Average Selling Price (ASP) growth forecast raised from 53% to
  88%
  , NAND growth forecast raised from 44% to
  74%
  [2]
• Nomura Securities: Predicts that DRAM and NAND prices will rise by
  46%
  and
  65%
  respectively in 2026[2]
• TrendForce: 2026 global DRAM and NAND supply growth rates will be
  16%
  and
  17%
  respectively, lower than the historical average[4]

:

1. Memory Chip Design
   : Enterprises with technological barriers and scale advantages
2. Advanced Packaging
   : Manufacturers with leading HBM and 3D NAND packaging & testing capabilities
3. Memory Modules
   : Volume and price growth opportunities for branded module manufacturers
4. Semiconductor Equipment
   : Suppliers of HBM-specific equipment
5. Domestic Substitution
   : Growth space for domestic manufacturers such as CXMT and YMTC

:

• Terminal demand may be suppressed due to price hikes
• New capacity release may lead to price corrections
• Industry cyclical fluctuation risks

---

The transmission mechanism of the 60% memory chip price hike across the industry chain exhibits the following characteristics:

1. Clear Transmission Path
   : AI Computing Demand → HBM Production Capacity Occupation → Tightened Traditional DRAM Supply → Rising Costs Across the Entire Industry Chain

2. Layered Transmission Intensity
   :
   • Strongest
     : Memory Chip Manufacturing (60%) → Memory Modules (80%~120%)
   • Medium
     : Packaging & Testing (10%~20%) → Terminal Devices (10%~30%)
   • Weak
     : Upstream Materials and Equipment (15%~20%)

3. Differentiated Terminal Impacts
   :
   • Highly Affected
     : PCs (10%~30% price hike), Smartphones (10%~20% price hike)
   • Moderately Affected
     : Automotive Electronics (per-vehicle cost increase of hundreds to thousands of yuan)
   • Lowly Affected
     : Industrial Electronics, AIoT (can use niche products)

4. Industry Restructuring
   : This price hike is not a simple cyclical rebound, but an AI-driven
   structural capacity reallocation
   , which will accelerate industry reshuffling and the domestic substitution process

---

[1] TrendForce - DRAM and NAND Flash prices to surge in Q1 2026 (https://evertiq.com/news/2026-01-05-dram-and-nand-flash-prices-to-surge-in-q1-2026)

[2] PR Newswire - Memory Makers Prioritize Server Applications (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/memory-makers-prioritize-server-applications-130000793.html)

[3] 21st Century Business Herald - AI Drives Global “Memory Shortage” (http://www.21jingji.com/article/20251224/herald/261b8235bb79993ba08c365dffb5ec43.html)

[4] Jung Industrial Resources - The Price Hike Wave for Phones and PCs is All Due to AI Snatching Memory Chip Production Capacity (https://www.industrysourcing.cn/article/473353)

[5] Huafu Securities - Analysis of Memory Chip Price Hike Transmission

[6] Notebookcheck - SK Hynix sells DRAM, NAND and HBM to Nvidia through 2026 (https://www.notebookcheck-cn.com/SK-Nvidia-DRAM-NAND-HBM-2026.1151934.0.html)

[7] China Business Journal - Memory Chip Price Hike Wave May Last Throughout 2026 (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601173622284748.html)

[8] Sci-Tech Innovation Board Daily - Opportunities Emerge for Enterprises in Multiple Links of the Memory Industry Chain (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2253779)

[9] Cailianshe - A Single Memory Module’s Price Increase in Half a Month Equals the Price of an iPhone (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2260607)

[10] Eastmoney - Five Major PC Manufacturers Raise Prices Collectively (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601133617762592.html)

[11] Cailianshe - Resonance of Price Hike Waves for Memory, Metals, and Batteries (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/auto/2026-01-14/doc-inhheyvm4527334.shtml)

[12] Securities Times Network - Auto Industry Leaders Warn of Memory Chip Price Hikes (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3591871.html)

[13] Sci-Tech Innovation Board Daily - AIoT Chips Face Controllable Pressure (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2253779)

[14] Cailianshe - Three Giants Compete in the HBM Market (https://m.cls.cn/detail/2154669)

[15] Sina Finance - AI “Chip Snatching” Will Make Phones, PCs, and New Energy Vehicles More Expensive (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-10/doc-inhfuvqr2042530.shtml)