Analysis of the Impact of Non-Bank Deposit Changes on A-Share Liquidity and Investment Sentiment

Based on the latest financial data and market analysis, I provide you with an in-depth research report on

.

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December 2025 financial data shows that

[1]. This data needs to be interpreted from two dimensions:

• Starting from December 1, 2024, interest rates on interbank deposits of non-bank institutions were included in self-disciplinary management, causing a sharp reduction of
  3.17 trillion yuan
  in non-bank deposits that month, the largest monthly contraction in history[1]
• This created a significant low base effect, resulting in a substantial “reduction in decline” in the year-on-year data for December 2025

Lin Yingqi, an analyst at CICC, pointed out that after adjusting for this base factor, non-bank deposits [1], reflecting a net inflow in real capital flows.

Indicator	December 2025	December 2024	Change
M2 YoY Growth Rate	8.5%	7.3%	Up 1.2 pct [2]
M1 YoY Growth Rate	3.8%	4.4%	Down 0.6 pct [2]
M2-M1 Spread	4.7 pct	2.9 pct	Significantly Widened

The M2-M1 spread widened to

, indicating increased capital activation, with part of time deposits shifting to demand deposits, providing incremental capital sources for the capital market[2].

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┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Capital Flow Transmission Chain          │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                              │
│   Improvement in Non-Bank Deposits → Increased Capital Activation → Deposit Shifting → Equity Asset Allocation │
│        ↓              ↓              ↓             ↓        │
│   Bank Liability Restructuring → Widened M2-M1 Spread → Household Deposit Growth Rate → Stock Market Incremental Capital │
│                                                              │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

• Affected by seasonal factors, wealth management products flow back to the banking system at the end of the quarter
• However, the scale of repatriation is lower than the same period in previous years, indicating limited capital outflow pressure

Zhang Weikang, an analyst at Industrial Research, clearly stated: [1]

Ma Kunpeng, an analyst at CITIC Securities, believes that [1]

The monitoring framework constructed by China Galaxy Securities shows[3]:

Monitoring Indicator	December 2025	Trend	Judgment
Household Deposit Growth Rate (Estimated)	9.68%	Month-on-Month Increase	Seasonal Factor
Gap Between Household Deposit Growth Rate and M2	1.18 pct	Narrowed (1.56→1.18)	Supports Deposit Shifting
12-Month Rolling Sum of New Non-Bank Deposits	6.4 Trillion Yuan	Significant Increase	Supports Deposit Shifting

Two of the three indicators

to the stock market[3].

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Yi Huan, an analyst at Huatai Securities, analyzed that household and non-bank deposits saw year-on-year reductions of 390 billion yuan and 2.84 trillion yuan less than the previous year respectively, while corporate deposits saw a year-on-year increase of 558.7 billion yuan less than the previous year. This

[1].

Li Chao, an analyst at Zheshang Securities, believes that the asset reallocation in December

rather than directly manifested as a large-scale outflow of household deposits[1].

Dimension	Signal Intensity	Specific Performance
M2 Growth Rate	Moderately Positive	Rebounded to 8.5%, a stage high
Non-Bank Deposits	Moderately Positive	Still saw an increase of 200 billion yuan year-on-year after adjusting for base effect
Household Deposit Structure	Moderately Positive	Narrowed gap indicates activation trend
Corporate Deposits	Moderately Negative	558.7 billion yuan less increase reflects capital outflow

Zhang Yu, Chief Economist at Huachuang Securities, pointed out that there is a possibility of

in current capital flows[1], requiring attention to:

⚠️

: Divergence between weak corporate deposits and strong household/non-bank deposits
⚠️ : Whether the data can be maintained after the low base disturbance weakens
⚠️ : Real interest rates remain high, and household financing behavior remains “defensive”[2]

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1. Raised Expectations for Incremental Capital
   • The improvement in non-bank deposits indicates that off-market capital is seeking allocation opportunities
   • Stock market activity and capital inflows form a positive feedback loop

2. Recovery in Risk Appetite
   • The booming trading volume in the equity market matches the improvement in non-bank deposits
   • Capital is shifting from “defensive” to “offensive” assets

3. Increased Institutional Confidence
   • CICC predicts that
     “the capital market will be active in January this year, and the entry of deposit capital into the market is expected to drive up non-bank deposits”
     [1]

1. Seasonal Disturbances Need to Be Excluded
   • Seasonal factors such as year-end wealth management product repatriation affect data interpretation
   • Need to combine January-February data to verify trend sustainability

2. Fading Low Base Effect
   • Part of the high growth in 2025 data comes from the base effect
   • Subsequent year-on-year data may return to normal

Assessment Dimension	Score (0-100)	Status
Liquidity Ease	75	Moderately Positive
Stock Market Attractiveness	80	Positive
Risk Appetite	70	Moderately Recovering
Incremental Capital Expectations	78	Moderately Positive

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Institution	Analyst	Core View
CICC	Lin Yingqi	After adjusting for the base effect, non-bank deposits still increased by approximately 200 billion yuan year-on-year, possibly due to the impact of deposit shifting into the market
Industrial Research	Zhang Weikang	The active stock market is one of the important reasons for the reduced decline in non-bank deposits
Huachuang Securities	Zhang Yu	Non-bank deposits match the booming trading volume in the equity market, and there is a possibility of “disintermediation from real economy to virtual economy” in corporate savings
Huatai Securities	Yi Huan	Reflects the impact of corporate savings flowing back to asset management products such as stocks and funds
CITIC Securities	Ma Kunpeng	The “September 24” rally drove a large amount of deposits into the capital market, with a large-scale flow back at the end of the year
Galaxy Securities	Zhang Di	The 330 billion yuan decrease in non-bank deposits is still significantly higher than the 2022-2023 average

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Based on the capital flows revealed by changes in non-bank deposits, it is recommended to focus on:

1. Sectors Preferred by Incremental Capital
   • The allocation ratio of equity assets is expected to increase
   • Focus on growth sectors that benefit from capital inflows

2. Targets Related to Asset Management Products
   • Against the background of wealth management fund repatriation, targets related to bank wealth management subsidiaries
   • Asset management institutions such as public funds

3. Trading Volume-Sensitive Industries
   • Securities sector (benefits from increased market activity)
   • Internet finance platforms

1. Monitor Changes in the M1-M2 Spread
   • If the trend of widening spread continues, it is beneficial to equity assets
   • If the spread narrows, need to be alert to the risk of liquidity tightening

2. Monitor Household Deposit Activation Indicators
   • Continuously track the 12-month rolling sum of new non-bank deposits
   • Monitor changes in the gap between household deposit growth rate and M2

3. Policy Tracking
   • Monitor the implementation of monetary policy during the Two Sessions
   • Track the impact of changes in real interest rates on household behavior

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1. The

   2.84 trillion yuan year-on-year reduction in non-bank deposit decline
   is mainly driven by the dual factors of a low base effect and active stock market, with data still showing a real net inflow of approximately 200 billion yuan after adjusting for the base effect[1]

2. Liquidity signals are moderately positive
   : The rebound in M2, widened M2-M1 spread, and improvement in non-bank deposits collectively point to increased capital activation and a continuing trend of deposit shifting[2][3]

3. Investment sentiment is recovering
   : Off-market capital is seeking allocation opportunities, and the attractiveness of equity assets has increased, but the sustainability of the trend needs to be observed

4. Risk Warning
   : The current phenomenon of “disintermediation from real economy to virtual economy” in capital flows deserves attention, and it is necessary to continuously track policy changes and the sustainability of capital flows

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[1] Sina Finance - “Non-Bank Deposits See 2.84 Trillion Yuan Less Year-on-Year Decline, Interpreted by Brokerage Analysts” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2026-01-18/doc-inhhtpht1983072.shtml)

[2] Wall Street Insights - “Deconstructing 2025 Financial Closing Data: M2 Rebound Driven by Wealth Management Fund Repatriation” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-16/doc-inhhncwz2691705.shtml)

[3] China Galaxy Securities - “Interpretation of December 2025 Financial Data and State Council Information Office Press Conference” (https://bigquant.com/square/paper/7ac3efa5-b1ea-4052-a1b7-807fabb178ff)

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The above chart shows the analysis framework of the impact of non-bank deposit changes on A-share market liquidity, covering four dimensions: divergence between M1 and M2 trends, monthly change comparison of non-bank deposits, logical framework of capital flows, and A-share market sentiment signal lights.