Analysis of the Impact of Intensified Service Consumption Policies on Investment Opportunities and Valuation Logics in Segmented Tracks

On January 16, 2026, the State Council Executive Meeting clearly proposed to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, and identified the silver economy, green consumption, and cultural and sports consumption as key supported areas [1]. The meeting emphasized the in-depth implementation of the special action to boost consumption, fully unleash the integrated effects of various policies, and promote the close integration of improving people’s livelihood and expanding consumption.

• Integration of Improving People’s Livelihood and Expanding Consumption
  : Enhance the endogenous driving force of resident consumption, and give play to the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth [1]
• Support for New Business Forms and Models
  : Address issues such as credit, standards, and safety management to promote the quality improvement and people-benefiting of service consumption [1]
• Establishment of Long-Term Mechanisms
  : Formulate the 15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption and the Income Increase Plan for Urban and Rural Residents [1]
• Collaborative Promotion in Multiple Fields
  : Transportation, housekeeping, online audio-visual, residential tourism, performances, sports events, games, etc. are listed as key cultivation areas [2]

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Indicator	Data
Current Scale	Approximately RMB 7 trillion in 2023
2035 Forecast	Approximately RMB 30 trillion (forecast by the United Nations Development Programme and Industrial Securities) [3]
Elderly Population	Approximately 310 million → expected to reach 390 million by 2030
Number of Enterprises	As of December 2025, there are 549,700 existing enterprises related to the silver economy [4]

, jointly issued by eight ministries and commissions, proposes the following key support directions [4]:

Supported Area	Specific Content
Technology Empowerment	Application of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and Beidou technology in health monitoring, safety alarms, and personalized services
Elderly Care Robots	R&D of robot technology for scenarios such as daily care, emotional companionship, and social support
Intelligent Rehabilitation Assistive Devices	Cutting-edge technologies such as brain-computer interfaces, exoskeleton robots, and muscle outer shells
Aging-Adapted Renovation	Installing elevators in multi-story buildings, and elderly meal assistance services

Dimension	Change Analysis
Valuation Hub	Reassessed from a “sunset industry” to a “sunrise track”, with the PE valuation hub expected to rise by 15-25%
Growth Logic	Driven by dual forces of rigid demand (rehabilitation care) and consumption (silver tourism, anti-aging)
Technology Premium	In-depth penetration of cutting-edge technologies such as AI, robots, and the Internet of Things enables intelligent assistive device enterprises to obtain valuation premiums

• Leading rehabilitation medical enterprises (such as Chengyitong, International Medical’s Intelligent Health Care Project) [4]
• Intelligent health care solution providers (such as Yahua Electronics) [4]
• Aging-adapted product manufacturers
• Elderly care service operators

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Indicator	Data
2025 Target	Approximately RMB 5 trillion
2030 Target	Exceeding RMB 7 trillion [5]
Policy Support	The central bank has established a RMB 500 billion reloan for service consumption and elderly care, with sports as a key supported area [5]
Event-Driven Consumption	In the first three quarters of 2025, 1,211 key sports events monitored in 7 provinces and regions drove consumption of over RMB 31.187 billion [5]

clarifies the support directions [6]:

Supported Area	Specific Measures
Event Economy	A maximum incentive of RMB 8 million for introducing major sports events (in Beijing, Zhejiang, and other regions) [5]
Consumption Voucher Distribution	Financial discount support for sports consumption loans
Integration of Sports and Medicine	Construction of community sports health centers
Digitalization	5G, VR, and AR to enhance event viewing experience, and big data analysis to achieve precise marketing

• “Purchase during events, events during purchases”: Convert event traffic into consumption momentum
• “Sports events enter scenic spots, blocks, and business districts”
• The number of outdoor sports participants has exceeded 400 million, with diversified development of ice and snow, mountain, water, and other categories [5]

Dimension	Change Analysis
Valuation Driver	Valuation restructuring driven by experiential consumption, with scenario-based service enterprises obtaining premiums
Brand Premium	Differentiated development of event IPs drives revaluation of brand value
Integration Premium	Enterprises adopting the “sports + cultural tourism + commerce” integration model enjoy valuation premiums

• Leading event operators
• Sports equipment brands (such as Anta Sports, which has accumulated R&D investment of RMB 20 billion over a decade) [5]
• Outdoor sports industry
• Sports technology enterprises

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, jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce and 8 other departments, proposes 20 specific measures from 7 aspects [7]:

Supported Area	Specific Measures
Energy Efficiency Subsidies	Subsidies for level 1 energy efficiency home appliances and digital products priced below RMB 6,000
New Energy Vehicles	Optimize trade-in and replacement to guide green and low-carbon transformation
Equipment Upgrading	Include consumer commercial facilities and energy-saving, carbon-reducing, and environmental protection equipment in the large-scale equipment upgrading policy
Green Points	Explore a universal green consumption point system that can be redeemed online and offline

Indicator	Data
Proportion of Green Product Demand	32.45% (consumer purchases), while market supply is only 23.92% [7]
Demand Gap	Approximately 8.5 percentage points, with an obvious supply-demand gap
Vehicle Trade-In	The proportion of new energy vehicles in trade-ins reached nearly 60% in 2025 [8]

Dimension	Change Analysis
ESG Premium	Deepened ESG investment drives value restructuring of green assets
Policy Dividends	Continuous release of financial subsidies and tax incentives
Circular Economy	The “production - consumption - recycling - regeneration” circular model brings new valuation logic

• Leading enterprises in the new energy industry chain
• Energy-saving and environmental protection equipment manufacturers
• Green material enterprises
• Carbon asset management service providers

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Track	Policy Support Intensity	Market Growth Potential	Valuation Upside Space	Investment Certainty	Comprehensive Score
Elderly Care Industry	9.5	9.0	8.5	8.0	8.75
Green Consumption	9.0	8.5	8.0	7.5	8.25
Sports Consumption	8.0	8.5	7.5	7.0	7.75
Medical Health	8.5	8.0	7.0	7.5	7.75
Digital Consumption	7.5	8.0	7.5	6.5	7.375

Track	Rating	Investment Strategy	Core Logic
Elderly Care Industry	★★★★★	Top Pick	Driven by dual forces of policy and population, with high certainty of valuation restructuring
Green Consumption	★★★★☆	Secondary Pick	Deepened ESG + policy subsidies drive value restructuring of green assets
Sports Consumption	★★★★☆	Focus	Rise of event economy, with valuation restructuring driven by experiential consumption
Medical Health	★★★☆☆	Steady	Strengthened rigid demand attribute, focus on service-oriented enterprises
Digital Consumption	★★★☆☆	Cautious	Driven by technological innovation, intensified competition compresses valuation bubbles

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1. Policy Implementation Falls Short of Expectations
   : The follow-up speed of local supporting policies may affect the investment pace
2. Immature Profit Model
   : The silver economy has the ‘three long and one short’ feature (long payback period, long trust-building period, long user education period, low short-term profitability) [4]
3. Intensified Market Competition
   : A large number of enterprises entering segmented tracks may lead to compressed gross profit margins
4. Uncertainty in Consumption Recovery
   : The recovery progress of residents’ consumption capacity and willingness affects industry growth
5. Technological Change Risks
   : There is uncertainty in the commercialization of technologies such as AI and robots

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The intensification of service consumption policies will systematically affect the investment logics of segmented tracks such as elderly care, sports, and environmental protection:

• Elderly Care Industry
  : Benefits the most with the highest certainty of valuation restructuring; it is recommended to focus on leading enterprises in rehabilitation medical care and intelligent elderly care
• Green Consumption
  : Continues to receive valuation premiums against the backdrop of deepened ESG investment; focus on enterprises with carbon asset management capabilities
• Sports Consumption
  : Valuation restructuring driven by experiential consumption; the event operation and outdoor sports sectors have good flexibility

Investors should seize the policy window period, carry out strategic layout based on changes in the valuation logic of each track, and pay attention to risks such as policy implementation progress and verification of enterprise profit models.

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[1] People’s Daily - Li Qiang Presides Over a State Council Executive Meeting (http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/content/202601/17/content_30133357.html)

[2] Xinhua News Agency - Interpretation of the State Council Executive Meeting: Studying the Acceleration of Cultivating New Growth Points in Service Consumption (http://www.xinhuanet.com/20260116/1f541346aba04356a505b4f4ecd1a4ca/c.html)

[3] China National Committee on Aging - Research Report on Financial Empowerment of China’s Silver Economy (http://www.crca.cn/index.php/13-agednews/1284-2026-01-17-02-12-51.html)

[4] Shanghai Securities News - Listed Companies in the Elderly Care Industry Compete to ‘Seize the Opportunity’ (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601143617866216.html)

[5] China Sports Daily - The Sports Industry Gathers Momentum Through ‘Integration’ to ‘Leverage’ New Growth Drivers of Consumption (https://www.sport.gov.cn/n20001280/n20745751/c29304670/content.html)

[6] Ministry of Ecology and Environment - General Office of the State Council’s Opinions on Unleashing Sports Consumption Potential (https://www.mee.gov.cn/zcwj/gwywj/202509/t20250909_1127154.shtml)

[7] China Quality News - Let ‘Going Green’ Become a Universal Choice Conforming to Economic Rationality (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-15/doc-inhhiusc3465316.shtml)

[8] Xinhua Finance - Experiential Consumption and Green Consumption Advance Side by Side (https://m.cnfin.com/yw-lb//zixun/20260119/4367390_1.html)