US$7 Trillion in Chinese Deposits Migrates: A Surge of Incremental Capital Flows into Stock and Gold Markets

Bloomberg released a blockbuster report on January 18, 2026, revealing a major structural shift in China’s financial market: Chinese households are shifting approximately US$7 trillion in time deposits to investments in stocks, gold, and insurance products [1][2]. This capital migration phenomenon is resonating with a new upward cycle in China’s stock market, marking a stark reversal of the previous trend where funds flooded into bank deposits for safety during the years-long real estate crisis and stock market downturn.

According to a December 2025 research report from Huatai Securities, approximately RMB 50 trillion in deposits with terms of over one year will mature in China in 2026, an increase of RMB 10 trillion compared to 2025 [1]. About RMB 30 trillion of these deposits are held by large state-owned banks, and the scale of maturing deposits is higher in the first half of the year (accounting for about 61%) [4]. The low-interest environment is the core driver of this change - time deposit rates at some small and medium-sized banks have been lowered to slightly above 1%, and the actual returns on household deposits have continued to shrink, forcing funds to seek investment channels with higher profit potential [1][3].

Since 2026, the A-share market has continued to attract incremental capital, with over RMB 70 billion in net inflows into the equity market [3]. The STAR 50 Index has performed particularly prominently, climbing over 12% year-to-date in 2026, with the tech growth sector becoming the focus of capital pursuit [1]. China Asset Management has become the first company to exceed RMB 1 trillion in ETF management scale, reflecting the acceleration of the index investment trend [3].

Gold prices continue to hit new all-time highs, with Chinese investors seen as one of the main driving forces [1][5]. The “New Three Golds” allocation concept has gained popularity among young investors, and the enthusiasm for gold investment continues to rise [5].

Goldman Sachs maintains an “Overweight” rating on A-shares and H-shares, and expects the CSI 300 Index to rise to 5,200 points [4]. Morgan Stanley stated that it remains bullish on the Chinese market over the next 6 to 12 months [4]. Fidelity International believes that savings funds will continue to flow into the stock market [4].

This phenomenon reflects a profound paradigm shift in the asset allocation of Chinese residents. From a macro perspective, the combination of three factors - declining expected returns on real estate investment, continuously falling deposit interest rates, and the confirmation of a policy bottom for the stock market - forms the complete logical chain of the “deposit migration” trend [1][3].

Analysts from Barclays pointed out that China may take more powerful measures to resist RMB appreciation pressure, as a stronger exchange rate is not beneficial to China’s export economy [4]. This means that there may be tension between capital outflows and exchange rate policies, and changes in policies related to cross-border capital flows need to be closely monitored.

• Tech Growth Sector: AI-related sectors have risen in turns, and institutions are generally optimistic about the performance of the equity market led by a tech bull market, believing that its “win rate and odds are both better than the interest rate market” [3]
• Gold Assets: Zheshang Securities pointed out that the medium- and long-term rise in gold is supported by two core logics - geopolitical hedging demand and the restructuring of the global monetary system [3]
• Equity Funds: ETFs and public funds have become the main channels for household funds to enter the market, and China Asset Management’s RMB 1 trillion scale milestone is of symbolic significance [3]

• Uncertainty in Sino-US Trade Relations: Julius Baer Group warns that vigilance is needed, and the upward path may be bumpy or even blocked [4]
• Bond Market Crowding Risk: If the 10-year treasury bond yield falls below 1.5%, it may trigger sharp fluctuations in the bond market [3]
• Risk of Overheated Market Sentiment: Institutions warn that “the pace of the bull market is expected to slow down this year”, and pressure from profit-taking needs to be monitored [4]
• Accumulation of Leveraged Funds: If the balance of margin trading and securities lending exceeds RMB 3 trillion, leveraged risks may accumulate [3]

Based on a comprehensive assessment of internal analysis data and public market information, the following are the key information points of this event:

Core Indicators	Data/Views	Source
2026 Maturing Time Deposits	Approximately RMB 50 trillion, +RMB 10 trillion year-on-year	Huatai Securities [1]
2026 Year-to-Date Gain of STAR 50 Index	Over 12%	Bloomberg [1]
Institutional Attitude Towards A-Shares	Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, etc. maintain Overweight/Bullish ratings	[4]
Market Consensus Judgment	“Deposit migration is only just beginning”	Lin Chengwei, Zheshang Securities [3][4]

From the perspective of capital flows, the A-share market and gold assets form the main receiving pools for “deposit migration”, with the tech growth sector and precious metals being the key allocation directions for capital. In terms of sustainability, multiple institutions expect this trend to continue in 2026, but the pace may adjust with market performance and policy changes. From a risk perspective, Sino-US trade relations, RMB exchange rate fluctuations, and the transmission of bond market volatility are key variables that require continuous monitoring.

This analysis is based on integrated analysis of public reports and institutional research notes from Bloomberg [1][2], FX168 Finance [1], 21st Century Business Herald [3], Yahoo Finance Hong Kong [4], and Securities Times [5].