Multi-Dimensional Analysis of the Impact of Easing Iran Tensions on U.S. Military Actions and Energy Markets

I will now systematically analyze the impact of the subsidence of Iranian protests on the possibility of U.S. military actions, oil market supply and demand expectations, and energy stock valuations based on the latest collected data.

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According to the latest reports, the protests in Iran that began in December 2025 have caused at least 2,400 deaths[1]. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei admitted that thousands were killed in the crackdown, but attributed the violence to “Iranian instigators” and U.S. President Trump[2]. Currently, Iran remains in a state of communication disruption, and the situation in Tehran is “extremely heavy and tense”[1].

1. Intensive Diplomatic Mediation:
   According to CNN, multiple Arab countries have carried out intensive diplomatic mediation over the past 72 hours, successfully easing tensions between Washington and Tehran[3]. Qatar, a key U.S. ally, has previously acted as an intermediary in Gaza and other conflicts[3].

2. Iran’s Commitments:
   President Trump stated that he has received assurances from Iran that “the killings have stopped” and that the scheduled execution plans have been canceled[1]. However, Trump clearly stated that he will not rule out the option of military action and will “wait and see” how the situation develops[1].

3. Military Deployment and Adjustments:
   The U.S. has deployed a carrier strike group to the Middle East, while reducing U.S. personnel at the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar as a “precautionary measure”[1][2]. Iran closed its airspace for several hours, a move that has typically preceded military operations in the past[2].

4. UN Intervention:
   The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the tense situation in Iran, and Secretary-General Guterres called on all parties to “exercise maximum restraint”[3].

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Indicator	Current Price	Daily Change	Change Rate
Brent Crude	$63.76/barrel	-$2.76	-4.15%
WTI Crude	$59.19/barrel	-$2.83	-4.56%

According to analysis from Oklahoma Minerals, the crude oil market has toggled between two narratives in early 2026:

and [4]. Previously, when tensions in the Middle East escalated, market concerns about supply disruptions drove oil prices higher, forming a risk premium; now, as signals of easing tensions emerge, this premium has been revised downward[4].

Current market characteristics:

1. Uncertainty Remains but Premium Narrows:
   The market now views geopolitics more as a volatility driver rather than a long-term price support[4]. The market will only price in the worst-case scenario if conflicts clearly lead to a reduction in oil supply.

2. Fundamentals Pressure Dominates:
   Goldman Sachs predicts that the market will face a supply surplus of approximately
   2.3 million barrels per day
   in 2026[5]. HSBC estimates an even larger supply-demand imbalance of approximately
   2.8 million barrels per day
   , the largest since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic[6].

3. Inventory Accumulation Continues:
   Onshore inventories have not yet clearly reflected the surplus, but offshore oil has climbed to multi-year highs, indicating that supply pressure is building up[6].

Institution	2026 Brent Forecast	2026 WTI Forecast
Goldman Sachs	$56/barrel	$52/barrel
HSBC	$65/barrel	-
Enverus	~$55/barrel	~$50/barrel
RBC	-	$56/barrel
EIA (Short-Term Outlook)	-	$52/barrel

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to bottom out at $54/barrel (Brent) and $50/barrel (WTI) in Q4 2026, with the market returning to a deficit in 2027 as non-OPEC supply growth slows and demand continues to rise[5].

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Indicator	Data
Current Price	$129.89
Market Capitalization	$547.77 billion
P/E Ratio (TTM)	18.78x
1-Month Return	+11.46%
1-Year Return	+16.52%
5-Year Return	+165.95%
Analyst Consensus	Hold
Target Price	$142.00 (+9.3% Upside)

Indicator	Data
Current Price	$166.26
Market Capitalization	$332.41 billion
P/E Ratio (TTM)	23.44x
1-Month Return	+12.57%
1-Year Return	+5.07%
5-Year Return	+75.92%
Analyst Consensus	Buy
Target Price	$173.00 (+4.1% Upside)

According to the latest market data, the energy sector rose

on the day, ranking 5th among 11 sectors[7]. Year-to-date, energy stocks have performed relatively steadily, in contrast to the declines in sectors such as technology and communication services.

1. Dividend Yield Provides Support:
   In a low oil price environment, Exxon Mobil offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.5%, while Chevron offers about 4%, providing stable cash flow for investors[8].

2. Diversified Business Advantages:
   ExxonMobil’s business covers upstream, refining, chemicals, and LNG, providing stronger margin stability amid oil price volatility[8]. Chevron has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, with conservative capital expenditures, prioritizing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks[8].

3. Cost Control Capability:
   Independent producers such as Devon Energy have demonstrated excellent cost control capabilities, remaining profitable even as oil prices fall[9].

1. Downward Oil Price Expectations:
   Major institutions generally expect oil prices to fall in 2026, which will compress the profit margins of upstream businesses.

2. Valuation Multiples Under Pressure:
   As the market’s long-term oil price expectations are revised downward, energy stocks may face pressure from valuation multiple contraction.

3. Capital Allocation Priorities:
   Energy companies generally prioritize cash flow for dividends and buybacks rather than growth investments, which limits upside potential.

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Scenario	Probability	Impact on Oil Prices	Impact on Energy Stocks
Scenario 1: Sustained Easing	Medium-High	Brent falls to $50-55 range	Valuations under pressure; focus on high-dividend targets
Scenario 2: Escalating Conflict	Medium-Low	Brent surges to $80+	Short-term sharp rebound; increased volatility
Scenario 3: Status Quo Maintained	Medium	Brent oscillates in $55-65 range	Selective allocation; focus on cost advantages

1. Prefer Integrated Giants:
   Integrated companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron are more resilient in a low oil price environment, able to hedge upstream risks through downstream operations.

2. Focus on Producers at the Bottom of the Cost Curve:
   According to industry analysis, even if WTI falls to $45/barrel, Canadian oil sands producers such as Cenovus Energy can still cover sustaining capital expenditures and base dividends[10].

3. Oilfield Service Companies Merit Attention:
   Service providers such as Weatherford International have shown expansion momentum and margin improvement during the industry downturn, with analyst target prices implying 22% upside potential[9].

4. Natural Gas Asset Allocation:
   Natural gas producers such as EQT Corporation offer value with their low-cost assets in the Marcellus and Utica basins, with a PEG ratio of only 0.46, indicating a significant growth discount[9].

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The gradual subsidence of Iranian protests is producing the following chain effects:

1. Reduced possibility of U.S. military actions:
   Diplomatic mediation and Iran’s commitments have significantly reduced the risk of short-term military conflicts, but the U.S. maintains a military deterrent posture.
2. Narrowing geopolitical risk premium:
   Oil prices have pulled back from previous highs driven by geopolitical concerns, and the market focus has shifted back to supply and demand fundamentals.
3. Supply-demand imbalance dominates the market:
   A supply surplus of approximately 2.0-2.8 million barrels per day is expected in 2026, suppressing oil prices to a mid-to-low range.
4. Energy stock valuations under pressure but divergent:
   Integrated giants are more defensive in a low oil price environment due to their diversified businesses and high dividend yields, while pure upstream producers face greater pressure.

Investors should closely monitor the evolution of the Iranian situation, adjustments to OPEC+ production policies, and changes in U.S. energy policies for their potential impacts on the market.

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[1] CNN - “January 14, 2026 - Iran protests updates” (https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-protests-trump-01-14-26)

[2] Security Council Report - “Briefing on Protests in Iran” (https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2026/01/briefing-on-protests-in-iran.php)

[3] CNN - “January 15, 2026 - Iran protests updates” (https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-protests-trump-01-15-26)

[4] Oklahoma Minerals - “Oil Prices Are Falling as Risk Premium Unwinds and the Glut Reappears” (https://www.oklahomaminerals.com/oil-prices-are-falling-as-risk-premium-unwinds-and-the-glut-reappears)

[5] Reuters - “Goldman projects lower oil prices in 2026 as supply swells” (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-projects-lower-oil-prices-2026-supply-swells-2026-01-12/)

[6] Oil & Gas 360 - “HSBC sees oil price spikes on geopolitics, maintains $65 Brent forecast” (https://www.oilandgas360.com/hsbc-sees-oil-price-spikes-on-geopolitics-maintains-65-brent-forecast/)

[7] Jinling API - Industry Performance Data

[8] EBC - “Energy Stocks to Buy in 2026 When Oil Prices Stay Low” (https://www.ebc.com/forex/energy-stocks-to-buy-in-2026-when-oil-prices-stay-low)

[9] Yahoo Finance - “5 Energy Stocks That Could Double in 2026” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-energy-stocks-could-double-154127519.html)

[10] Yahoo Finance Canada - “Canadian Oil and Gas Stocks to Watch for in 2026” (https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-oil-gas-stocks-watch-000000155.html)

[0] Jinling API - Company Fundamental Data (Exxon Mobil, Chevron), Market Index Data