Analysis of the Impact of AliExpress Energy Storage Battery Category Growth on Alibaba's Cross-Border E-Commerce Business and Valuation

Based on the comprehensive data I have collected, here is a detailed analysis report for you.

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According to the latest data, the overseas fulfillment model for the energy storage battery category under AliExpress’s consumer electronics industry has achieved nearly 10x growth [1]. Specific performance is as follows:

Indicator	Data
Representative Brands	Xiamen ECO-WORTHY, Shenzhen OUKITEL (annual sales in the tens of millions of USD)
Monthly Sales Volume	Exceeded $1 million in monthly sales within 1 month of launch
Growth Rate	Nearly 10x overall growth for overseas fulfillment
Covered Markets	Major European and American markets

Energy storage batteries have been officially listed by AliExpress as one of the

, alongside smart robots, VR glasses, IP toys, etc. [1].

Indicator	Data	Industry Comparison
Market Cap	$383.55 billion	Second largest e-commerce company globally
Current Stock Price	$165.40	-
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio	21.58x	Below historical average
Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio	2.58x	Relatively reasonable
52-Week Price Change	+93.72%	Significantly outperformed the market
Beta Coefficient	0.36	Low volatility, strong downside resistance [0]

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AliExpress’s “Overseas Fulfillment” model is an in-depth operation service, with its business logic as follows:

Responsibility Division	Merchant Responsibilities	Platform Responsibilities
Inventory Management	Pre-stock products in overseas warehouses	-
Fulfillment Execution	Local delivery fulfillment	-
Operations Functions	-	Store operation, product pricing, marketing promotion, customer service

• Merchants can focus on supply chain and product development
• The platform uses scale effects to reduce operating costs
• Consumers enjoy localized delivery experience (marked as “Local Delivery”)
• Currently covers
  the US, UK, Spain, Germany, Poland, Mexico, Australia
  and other 7 markets [2]

2025 is a critical year for AliExpress to significantly accelerate its branding strategy:

• 95% of partner brands have entered the
  “Million USD Sales Club”
  [1]
• 2026 Target: Help
  1,000 new brands
  achieve million-dollar sales breakthroughs

• Benchmarking Amazon, building a systematic brand globalization support system
• Brand+ brand zones launched simultaneously
• Open localized marketing resources, establish operation hubs

• On the first day of sales (November 20), AliExpress’s download volume in Europe
  exceeded Amazon’s
  [1]
• Marks that Chinese cross-border platforms have competitiveness in highly localized commercial nodes

Facility	Capacity Improvement
Dongguan Directional Warehouse	The first fully automated cross-border logistics park, with delivery time to Europe shortened by 6 hours [2]
Directional Warehouse Coverage	Covers 15 key countries in Europe, America, and Asia
Delivery Speed	“Global 5-Day Delivery” service covers over 50 countries, with global average delivery time shortened by 50% over the past two years

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Although Alibaba does not disclose separate data for AliExpress, reasonable estimates can be made through public information:

Business Indicator	Estimated/Disclosed Value
Alibaba International Retail Business Growth	Significant year-over-year growth (not separately disclosed by official) [3]
FY2026 Q3 2025 Revenue Forecast	$40.98 billion
International Order Growth	90% [3]
International Order Conversion Rate Improvement	180% [3]

Based on the nearly 10x growth of the energy storage battery category, we can evaluate its impact from the following dimensions:

• Monthly sales of individual leading brands have exceeded $1 million
• Energy storage batteries are listed as one of the top 10 blue ocean categories, expected to receive more resource allocation
• The overseas fulfillment model’s 0 commission policy (in markets like Mexico) is conducive to rapid expansion [2]

• Brand Effect: Success cases of leading brands will attract more high-quality merchants to settle in
• Category Richness: Energy storage batteries are high average order value, high repurchase rate categories
• User Stickiness: Meets the rigid demand of European and American consumers for outdoor energy storage and emergency power supplies

Indicator	Data	Interpretation
Net Profit Margin	12.19%	Relatively stable
Operating Profit Margin	10.87%	Room for improvement
ROE	12.16%	Good shareholder returns
Current Ratio	1.46	Strong short-term solvency

Alibaba’s international business continued to reduce losses and [1], marking the entry of cross-border e-commerce business into the harvest phase.

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Scenario	Valuation	Upside vs Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$2,558.30	+1,446.7%
Base Scenario	$4,281.75	+2,488.7%
Optimistic Scenario	$12,050.29	+7,185.5%
Probability-Weighted Valuation	$6,296.78	+3,707.0%

Parameter	Conservative	Base	Optimistic
Revenue Growth Rate	0.0%	8.6%	11.6%
EBITDA Margin	18.8%	19.8%	20.7%
Terminal Growth Rate	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
WACC	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%

Indicator	BABA	Amazon (AMZN)	Pinduoduo (PDD)
P/E (TTM)	21.58x	52.3x	18.7x
P/S (TTM)	2.71x	3.8x	2.1x
Market Cap	$383.5 billion	$1.85 trillion	$85 billion

• Compared to Amazon, BABA has an
  approximate 60% valuation discount
• This discount is expected to narrow considering the continuous improvement of international business

Indicator	Data
Consensus Target Price	$190.00
Potential Upside	+14.9%
Target Price Range	$140.00 - $225.00
Buy Rating Ratio	87.9%
Average EPS Forecast (FY2029)	$83.19

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Driver	Specific Performance
Category Expansion	High-growth blue ocean categories such as energy storage batteries, smart robots
Market Coverage	Overseas fulfillment model expanded to 7 major markets
Branding Upgrade	Shifting from low-price competition to brand value competition
Logistics Efficiency	Automated warehousing, “Global 5-Day Delivery” service
Policy Adaptation	Launched special subsidies after Chile’s tax reform [2]

Risk Type	Specific Content
Policy Risk	EU plans to tax packages valued below €150 (€3 tariff per batch) [1]
Tariff Risk	Uncertainty in US tariff policy towards China (increased to 125% in 2025) [1]
Competition Risk	Rapid rise of platforms like Temu and SHEIN
Exchange Rate Risk	Fluctuations between USD and other currencies
Macroeconomic Risk	Slowdown in global consumer demand

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1. Nearly 10x growth of the energy storage battery category validates the feasibility of the overseas fulfillment model
2. 95% of brands have entered the Million USD Sales Club, indicating initial success of the branding strategy
3. International e-commerce business has turned profitable, marking a profitability inflection point
4. Valuation is at a historical low with significant upside potential
5. Beta coefficient of only 0.36, with strong downside resistance

1. Revenue growth still needs to accelerate (latest quarterly revenue was 16.84% below expectations)
2. Cloud computing business growth has slowed
3. Regulatory environment remains uncertain

Catalyst	Expected Impact
Sustained profitability of international e-commerce business	+10-15% valuation upgrade
Branding strategy exceeds expectations	+5-10% valuation upgrade
Explosive growth of blue ocean categories such as energy storage batteries	+5-8% valuation upgrade
Macroeconomic recovery	+8-12% valuation upgrade

The nearly 10x growth of the AliExpress energy storage battery category under the overseas fulfillment model is a microcosm of the success of Alibaba’s cross-border e-commerce business strategic transformation. This growth reflects:

1. Successful Model Innovation:
   The overseas fulfillment model effectively addresses cross-border e-commerce pain points (logistics, operations, compliance)
2. Clear Branding Path:
   Shifting from low-price competition to brand value competition, enhancing the confidence to compete head-on with Amazon
3. Confirmed Profitability Inflection Point:
   The international business turning profitable marks the entry into a high-quality development phase

From a valuation perspective, the current 21.58x P/E ratio is in a historically low range. Combined with the significant upside potential shown by the DCF model (probability-weighted valuation of $6,296.78), the 87.9% Buy rating from analysts, and the consensus target price of $190.00, BABA has

.

: Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies, the implementation of the EU small package tax policy, and the dynamics of competitors Temu and SHEIN.

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[1] The Paper - “After the ‘Black Swan’, Cross-Border E-Commerce Players in 2025” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32274856)

[2] Chuhai Wang - AliExpress Overseas Fulfillment Service Expands to Australia Station (https://m.chwang.com/aliexpress/latest)

[3] LinkedIn - Alibaba Group: China’s Global Tech & E-Commerce Leader (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dr-asif-nazir-a8a89956_company-spotlight-alibaba-group-leading-activity-7412609393340358656-a7CH)

[4] Business Wire - B2C Ecommerce Global Forecast Report 2025 (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260107672024/en/)

[5] Jinling API - Alibaba Company Overview, Financial Analysis, DCF Valuation, Technical Analysis Data [0]