Jamei Packaging (002969) Limit-Up Analysis: Control Rights Change Drives Stock Surge, Risks Accumulate from Overheated Market Sentiment

The direct catalyst for Jamei Packaging’s limit-up today is the expected business transformation brought by a

. On December 16, 2025, the company’s controlling shareholder, China Food Packaging Co., Ltd., signed a “Share Transfer Agreement” with Suzhou Zhuyue Hongzhi Technology Development Partnership, under which it plans to transfer 279 million shares (29.9% of total share capital) at RMB 4.45 per share, with a transaction consideration of approximately RMB 1.243 billion[2][3]. Simultaneously, Zhuyue Hongzhi launched a partial tender offer to acquire 233 million shares (25% of total share capital) for approximately RMB 1.039 billion. Upon completion of the transactions, Zhuyue Hongzhi will hold a total of 54.9% of the shares and become the controlling shareholder[2].

The new actual controller is

, who ranked 618th on the 2024 Hurun China Rich List with a fortune of RMB 8.5 billion[2]. As a global technology enterprise, Dreame Technology specializes in high-end smart home appliances and intelligent cleaning appliances, with a 6-year consecutive annual revenue compound growth rate of 100%, and holds the top market share in dozens of countries including Germany, France, and Singapore[3]. The market has high expectations that Dreame Technology will export core technologies such as high-speed digital motors and intelligent algorithms to Jamei Packaging to upgrade smart manufacturing, and leverage its global supply chain network to expand overseas orders[3].

In terms of price performance, Jamei Packaging has shown extreme overbought momentum recently[0]:

Period	Gain	Assessment
1 Day	+9.97% (Limit-Up)	Strong Breakout
1 Month	+183.36%	Extremely Overbought
3 Months	+373.83%	Detached from Fundamentals
1 Year	+425.99%	Severe Valuation Deviation

Technical indicators show that the stock price has significantly deviated from the moving average system: the current price is 32% above the 20-day moving average (RMB 12.99), 124% above the 50-day moving average (RMB 7.66), and 279% above the 200-day moving average (RMB 4.54)[0]. More critically, the current stock price of RMB 17.20 represents a staggering

over the transfer price of RMB 4.45, with a P/E ratio of 114.67x and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 6.75x, both significantly higher than industry averages[0][4].

Today’s trading volume reached 43.28 million shares, 38.6% higher than the average daily volume of 31.23 million shares, indicating intense trading competition among investors with a high turnover rate[0].

In stark contrast to the surging stock price is the company’s

[1][3]. The company expects 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders to be RMB 85.44 million to RMB 104 million, representing a 43%-53% year-on-year decline, mainly affected by the following factors:

• “Off-year” for the beverage industry
  : Fewer days in the 2025 Spring Festival peak season
• Gift consumption demand fell short of expectations
• Fluctuations in raw material prices
  : Rising costs of tinplate and aluminum
• Declining capacity utilization

From the first three quarters’ financial data, the company recorded operating revenue of RMB 2.039 billion, a slight 1.94% year-on-year decline, with a gross profit margin of 11.12%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, ROE of only 6.12%, and a net profit margin of 4.70%[1]. As one of the largest metal can manufacturers in China, the company’s major customers include well-known enterprises such as Yangyuan Beverage Group, Wanglaoji, Yinlu Group, Dali Group, and Chengde Lulu, and it ranks among the top in the three-piece can market share[2].

Market sentiment towards the ownership change is highly optimistic, based on three positive expectations: the potential for technology empowerment brought by Dreame Technology’s entry, the safety margin provided by the original major shareholder’s 5-year performance commitment (annual net profit attributable to shareholders of no less than RMB 120 million), and the potential for new business expansion (exports to Vietnam, OBM business, etc.)[2][3].

[4]:

“The company’s fundamentals have not undergone major changes, but the stock price has seriously deviated from the company’s fundamentals, posing risks of overheated market sentiment and irrational speculation”[4]

“If the company’s stock price further rises abnormally in the future, the company may again apply to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for a trading halt for review”[4]

Notably, the company has clearly stated that it

and will not change its main business in the next 12-36 months[3]. In addition, the new actual controller Yu Hao once claimed that the Dreame ecosystem’s market value will reach a “hundred trillion US dollar scale”, and such aggressive remarks have attracted regulatory attention[3].

1. Valuation Divergence Between Primary and Secondary Markets
   : There is a huge arbitrage space between the share transfer price of RMB 4.45 and the current stock price of RMB 17.20, with primary market investors seeing a paper profit of 286%. This irrational premium cannot be supported by fundamentals.

2. Tension Between Performance Commitment and Reality
   : The original actual controller committed to annual net profit attributable to shareholders of no less than RMB 120 million from 2026 to 2030, but the 2025 actual net profit has fallen below RMB 100 million, creating pressure to fulfill the performance commitment.

3. Limitations of the Technology Empowerment Narrative
   : Although Dreame Technology is technologically leading in the intelligent cleaning field, there are significant differences between the packaging industry and the smart home appliance industry in technology synergy, channel integration, and customer resources, so the implementation effect of the “technology empowerment” story is questionable.

4. Signals of Tightening Regulation
   : The company already underwent a trading halt for review from January 7 to 12, and may be halted again if abnormal gains continue. Regulators’ tolerance for concept speculation is declining[4].

• Valuation Bubble Risk (High)
  : The current stock price is 286% above the transfer price, with a 114x P/E ratio that severely overdraws future expectations[0][4]
• Fundamental Deterioration Risk (High)
  : 2025 net profit is expected to decline by 50%, weighing on profitability[3]
• Trading Halt Review Risk (High)
  : Abnormal gains may trigger another trading halt[4]
• Regulatory Scrutiny Risk (Medium)
  : Aggressive remarks by the new controller have attracted regulatory attention[3]
• Liquidity Risk (Medium)
  : A capital exodus after high-volume trading at elevated levels could lead to a sharp decline

• Business Synergy Expectations
  : If Dreame Technology successfully introduces intelligent technologies, it may improve Jamei Packaging’s production line efficiency and product added value
• Globalization Resources
  : Leveraging Dreame’s overseas channels to expand international markets and increase export orders to Vietnam and other regions
• Performance Commitment Guarantee
  : The original major shareholder’s 5-year performance commitment provides a certain safety margin for the stock price[2]

Scenario	Probability	Trigger Condition	Forecast
Scenario 1: Continued Rise	20%	Sustained overheated market sentiment	May challenge the historical high of RMB 20.50, but with extremely high risk
Scenario 2: High-Level Volatility	35%	Intensified long-short rivalry	Wide-range fluctuation between RMB 16 and RMB 20
Scenario 3: Sharp Pullback	45%	Easing sentiment or regulatory intervention	Pullback to the RMB 10-RMB 12 range (based on fundamental valuation)

• January 20 Performance
  : Whether the stock can continue to hit the limit up or show long-short divergence
• Trading Halt Review Announcement
  : If abnormal gains continue, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange may require another trading halt for review[4]
• Trading Volume Changes
  : A rally on shrinking volume indicates waning upward momentum, while a decline on surging volume confirms capital outflow
• Sector Linkage Effect
  : Overall performance and capital flow of the packaging container sector

• Support Levels
  : RMB 17.00 (limit-up price), RMB 15.64 (pre-halt closing price), RMB 12.99 (20-day moving average)
• Resistance Levels
  : RMB 19.31 (January 14 high), RMB 20.50 (52-week high)

Jamei Packaging (002969) hit the limit up today as a concentrated reflection of speculation around the control rights change concept. Yu Hao, founder of Dreame Technology, plans to take control with a total consideration of approximately RMB 2.282 billion, bringing expectations of transformation such as technology empowerment and globalization expansion. However, the stock price has surged 425.99% in just one year, and its current 114x P/E ratio is severely disconnected from the company’s 2025 forecast of 43%-53% net profit decline. The company has repeatedly issued risk warning announcements, cautioning against irrational speculation, and clearly stated that it has no backdoor listing plans within 36 months. Technically, the stock price has significantly deviated from the moving average system, with notable valuation bubble risks.

From an investment perspective, this target is a

, with its price movement driven more by market sentiment and capital flows rather than fundamental support. It is recommended that investors remain prudent, avoid being influenced by market sentiment, and make decisions carefully.