Quanyangquan (600189) Limit-Up Analysis: 148% Profit Growth Forecast Draws Attention, Valuation Risks Remain a Concern

The core driving force behind Quanyangquan’s limit-up today stems from the company’s 2025 annual performance forecast released on January 7, 2026. The report shows that the net profit attributable to parent shareholders reached RMB 15.2236 million, a sharp 147.89% year-on-year increase, and operating revenue reached RMB 1.273 billion, a 6.24% year-on-year growth[1][2][3]. Among them, the natural mineral water business performed particularly prominently, with sales climbing to 1.5034 million tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 33.84%, becoming the core engine driving the company’s performance growth.

From the perspective of trading volume, 32.8 million shares were traded today, an increase of more than 140% compared to the average daily trading volume of 13.65 million shares, indicating strong pursuit of the stock by market capital. Such abnormal trading volume usually indicates that market sentiment is in an excited state, but it also means that short-term game risks are accumulating.

From a technical perspective, today’s limit-up price of RMB 8.11 has effectively broken through the 20-day moving average (RMB 7.18), 50-day moving average (RMB 7.26), and 200-day moving average (RMB 7.24), presenting a typical bullish arrangement pattern[0]. The current price is close to the 52-week high of RMB 8.66, facing a test of the previous high resistance level in the short term. The intraday trend showed a solid limit-up characteristic (traded at the limit-up price throughout the session), indicating strong bullish momentum, but attention should be paid to whether the strong limit-up can be maintained in subsequent trading days.

The stock price has rebounded by more than 32% since the low of RMB 6.12 in September 2024, showing an accelerated upward trend recently, and today’s volume-driven limit-up is a positive response from the market to the performance forecast.

The company’s main business covers three sectors: natural mineral water, landscaping, and wooden door home furnishing. In terms of performance contribution, the mineral water business performed strongly, with a 33.84% sales growth confirming the growth momentum of the core business; the wooden door home furnishing sector’s performance has rebounded; however, the landscaping sector’s revenue declined due to market environment impacts[1][2].

However, investors need to be alert that the company’s net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is still negative (RMB -15.76 million), indicating that the profitability of the main business has not yet fully recovered. The performance growth relies partly on non-recurring profit and loss items, and its sustainability remains to be seen. In addition, the company’s P/E ratio is as high as 617x, and ROE is only 0.77%, indicating that the valuation level has significantly deviated from the current fundamental support.

Quanyangquan has been included in the list of 17 A-share companies with “year-on-year growth of annual net profit in 2025 exceeding 100% at the upper limit”, and has attracted market attention together with Zhongke Lanxun, Transfar Zhilian, Kangchen Pharmaceutical, etc.[4] This inter-sector linkage effect reflects that stocks with profit growth forecasts are generally favored by capital in the current market environment.

From the perspective of sector rotation, the consumer staples sector rose 0.25% overall today. As a consumer defensive target, Quanyangquan’s limit-up today also benefited from the overall recovery of sector sentiment[0].

On December 18, 2025, the company received a warning letter from the Jilin Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to timely disclose litigation and arbitration matters (the involved amount was RMB 180 million, accounting for 10.93% of net assets)[5]. Although this compliance risk event has been over for more than a month, it reflects flaws in the company’s governance and that the quality of information disclosure needs to be improved. Investors need to take this risk factor into consideration when participating in transactions.

The performance forecast data has not been audited, and the final annual report data may be adjusted[1][2]. The growth rate in the performance forecast is a prediction based on previous data, and the actual result may deviate due to factors such as accounting treatment and asset impairment.

1. Valuation Risk
   : The P/E ratio reaches 617x, significantly deviating from the industry average, and the stock price faces valuation regression pressure[0]
2. Compliance Risk
   : The company has received a regulatory warning letter, and issues with information disclosure quality may affect the company’s reputation[5]
3. Profit Quality Risk
   : Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is still negative, and the profitability of the main business remains to be observed
4. Business Concentration Risk
   : The mineral water business accounts for an overly high proportion, making the company highly susceptible to fluctuations in a single category
5. Performance Confirmation Risk
   : The forecast data has not been audited, and the final data may be adjusted

1. Short-Term Momentum
   : Positive performance news coupled with capital pursuit provides sufficient short-term upward momentum
2. Industry Prosperity
   : The consumer defensive sector performs steadily, with positive industry beta
3. Business Transformation
   : The market share of mineral water is increasing; if net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses turns positive, it will open up upward space

Short-term (1-3 trading days): Pay attention to tomorrow’s opening auction and the volume of limit-up orders. If the limit-up orders remain stable, the trend is expected to continue; if the limit-up is broken, investors need to be alert to profit-taking pressure[0]

Mid-term (1-4 weeks): Focus on the resistance level of RMB 8.66 (52-week high) and the support level range of RMB 7.50-7.80. It is necessary to pay attention to the official disclosure of the annual report forecast at the end of January, whether trading volume can maintain a high level, and changes in the overall market sentiment towards the consumer sector[0]

Quanyangquan’s limit-up today was mainly driven by the 147.89% year-on-year growth forecast for 2025 annual performance, with a 33.84% surge in mineral water sales becoming the core growth engine. Technically, the stock presents a bullish arrangement, and the 140% increase in trading volume indicates active capital inflow. However, the company faces risk factors such as overvaluation (617x P/E), negative net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses, and a previous regulatory warning letter. Investors should carefully evaluate the risks of chasing the short-term rally. Aggressive investors can pay attention to tomorrow’s opening auction and limit-up order situation, while conservative investors are advised to wait for a pullback to around the 5-day moving average before considering entry. The current valuation level has significantly reflected optimistic expectations, and it is not advisable to chase the rally with heavy positions.