Investment Implications of Alphamin's 7% Tin Production Growth and In-Depth Analysis of Tin Market Supply and Demand Dynamics

Let me present a complete investment analysis report for you now.

Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSXV: AFM, JSE AltX: APH) released its annual production report for the year ended December 31, 2025 on January 19, 2026, with data showing the company achieved record tin production performance [1][2]:

1. Notable Capacity Expansion Results
   : The Mpama South expansion project was commissioned in mid-2024, with smooth capacity ramp-up, which was the main contributor to production growth [1]
2. Improved Operational Efficiency
   : Despite a temporary production suspension of approximately 6 weeks in March 2025 due to safety factors (resumed production gradually on April 15), the company still achieved its annual production target, demonstrating strong operational resilience
3. Strong Cash Flow
   : As of the end of December 2025, the company’s cash balance increased from USD 30 million in 2024 to USD 56 million, representing an 87% growth [2]

Management provided positive 2026 performance guidance [1][2]:

• Production Target
  : Approximately 20,000 tonnes (annualized capacity utilization rate of approximately 20,000 tonnes)
• Quarterly Capacity
  : Maintain a stable output level of 5,000 tonnes per quarter
• Shareholder Returns
  : 2025 dividends increased by 22% year-on-year (from CAD 0.09 to CAD 0.11), with a potential further increase expected in April 2026

Global tin supply faces multiple structural challenges:

Tin’s end-demand shows structural growth characteristics:

• Asia-Pacific Region
  : Accounts for 68.85% of global consumption, supported mainly by China’s concentrated electronics industry and Indonesia’s smelting capacity [3]
• United States
  : 2025 demand of approximately 43,000 tonnes, with domestic production of only 80 tonnes, resulting in import dependence of over 95% [5]

• BMI (Fitch Solutions)
  : Raised its 2026 tin price forecast from USD 32,000 to USD 35,000 per tonne, citing persistent supply tightness combined with robust semiconductor demand [4]
• Goldman Sachs 2026 Outlook
  : Bullish on the industrial metals sector, with tin expected to remain at high levels due to supply-demand gaps

Mining company valuation typically uses the following combination of methods [7][8]:

• EV/EBITDA is approximately 20% below the industry average
  , which may reflect the geopolitical risk premium of the DRC
• EV/Production is higher than the industry average
  , indicating the market’s premium for high-grade tin ore (Mpama Mine has world-leading grades)
• 7% production growth
  corresponds to 25% EBITDA growth, reflecting operating leverage effects

1. Production Growth and Cost Control
   :
   • Production increased from 12.5kT in 2022 to 18.6kT in 2025, with a
     3-year compound annual growth rate of approximately 22%
   • Processing recovery rate reaches an industry-leading level of 75%, with a C1 cash cost of approximately USD 14,000 per tonne, providing a cost advantage
   • The current tin price (USD 53,462 per tonne) corresponds to
     an operating profit margin of approximately USD 39,000 per tonne

2. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
   :
   • 2025 dividend distribution of CAD 123 million, with a
     dividend yield of approximately 3.5%
   • Strong cash flow provides financial support for subsequent exploration and potential mergers and acquisitions
   • Management expects a potential further increase in dividends in 2026 [2]

3. Growth Catalysts
   :
   • 2026 production guidance of 20,000 tonnes, with remaining room for capacity ramp-up
   • Advancement of exploration projects may lead to reserve growth
   • Unit costs are expected to decrease after the full release of Mpama South’s expanded capacity

1. Geopolitical Risks
   : Security situation in the DRC, changes in tax and fee policies may affect operations
2. Price Volatility Risk
   : Tin prices may correct in the short term (current price is approximately 50% higher than BMI’s forecast)
3. Single Project Dependence
   : Almost all of the company’s value comes from the Mpama Mine, with low redundancy

Supply-Demand Gap → Rising Tin Prices → Mining Company Revenue Growth → Improved Profitability → Valuation Re-rating

1. Structural Supply-Demand Tightness
   : Annual gaps of 30-40 kT are expected to persist in 2025-2026
2. Emerging Demand Drivers
   : Semiconductors, new energy, and energy storage drive incremental tin demand
3. Limited Supply Increments
   : Long development cycles for new mines, existing capacity faces challenges of declining grades
4. Strong Price Support
   : Institutions such as BMI and Goldman Sachs maintain optimistic expectations

• Top Left
  : LME tin price rose from USD 16,800 per tonne in 2020 to USD 53,462 per tonne in early 2026, hitting an all-time high in 2022 (during the Russia-Ukraine conflict)
• Top Right
  : 2025 supply-demand gap reached 38 kT, with a projected 35 kT gap expected to persist in 2026
• Bottom Left
  : Alphamin’s production has continued to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22% from 2022 to 2025
• Bottom Right
  : Enterprise value is highly sensitive to tin prices and production; for every USD 5,000 increase in tin price, EV increases by approximately USD 5 billion

Alphamin Resources’ 7% growth in tin production in 2025 validates the effectiveness of the company’s capacity expansion strategy. Against the backdrop of structural supply-demand tightness in the global tin market, as a producer of one of the world’s highest-grade tin ores, the company has significant competitive advantages:

1. Growth
   : 2026 production guidance of 20,000 tonnes, with remaining room for capacity ramp-up
2. Profitability
   : EBITDA margin of approximately 55%, with significant operating leverage effects
3. Shareholder Returns
   : Sustained dividend growth, with an attractive dividend yield
4. Valuation Repricing Potential
   : The current 5.2x EV/EBITDA is below the industry average; if the risk premium declines, a valuation re-rating is expected

For mining investors, the tin industry sector has medium- to long-term allocation value driven by both the new energy transition and growth in the electronics industry. As a pure tin industry target, Alphamin provides high-beta exposure to tin prices, making it suitable for focused attention by investors with higher risk appetites.

[1] GlobeNewswire - “ALPHAMIN ANNOUNCES RECORD FY2025 TIN PRODUCTION” (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/19/3221017/36579/en/ALPHAMIN-ANNOUNCES-RECORD-FY2025-TIN-PRODUCTION-FY2026-PRODUCTION-GUIDANCE-EXPLORATION-UPDATE-SENIOR-MANAGEMENT-CHANGES.html)

[2] TipRanks - “Alphamin Sets Record 2025 Tin Output, Lifts EBITDA Guidance” (https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/alphamin-sets-record-2025-tin-output-lifts-ebitda-guidance-and-targets-higher-2026-production)

[3] Mordor Intelligence - “Tin Market Size, Forecast & Industry Outlook 2026-2031” (https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/tin-market)

[4] GoldInvest - “Tin on the Upswing: Analysts Foresee 2026 Price of USD 35,000/t” (https://goldinvest.de/en/tin-on-the-upswing-analysts-foresee-2026-price-of-usd-35000-t-and-growing-supply-deficit/)

[5] Farmonaut - “Tin USA: 2026 Trends In Tin Supply & Security” (https://farmonaut.com/usa/tin-usa-2026-trends-in-tin-no-tin-us-supply-security)

[6] Trading Economics - “Tin - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News” (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/tin)

[7] ClearRating - “A Comprehensive Guide to Valuing Companies in the Mining Industry” (https://www.clearrating.com/resources-press/a-comprehensive-guide-to-valuing-companies-in-the-mining-industry)

[8] Valuation of Metals and Mining Companies - Academic Paper (https://www.thaurfin.com/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf)

Report Generation Date: January 19, 2026
Data Sources: Jinling AI Financial Database, Bloomberg, Investing.com, Company Announcements