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In-Depth Analysis of Leapmotor's Gross Margin Improvement Potential

#gross_margin #automotive_industry #ev_manufacturer #financial_analysis #leapmotor #chinese_ev #competition_analysis # profitability #strategic_positioning
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January 20, 2026

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Based on the collected data, I now provide you with a detailed analysis report on Leapmotor’s gross margin improvement potential.


In-Depth Analysis of Leapmotor (09863.HK)'s Gross Margin Improvement Potential
I. Current Status and Historical Evolution of Gross Margin

Leapmotor’s gross margin has experienced significant improvement over the past few years, gradually rising from its early difficult period to the current healthy level[1][2].

Historical Gross Margin Trend:

Time Period Gross Margin Remarks
Full Year 2023 0.5% In a loss-making state
Full Year 2024 8.4% Significant year-on-year improvement
Q4 2024 13.3% Record high since the company’s establishment
H1 2025 14.1% Continuous improvement
Q3 2025 14.5% 79% year-on-year growth[2]

Key Financial Performance (Q3 2025):

  • Operating Revenue: RMB 19.45 billion, up 97.3% year-on-year[2]
  • Net Profit: RMB 150 million, maintaining profitability for multiple consecutive quarters[2]
  • Delivery Volume: 173,852 units, up 101.8% year-on-year[2]
  • Cash on Hand: RMB 33.92 billion, ample cash flow[2]

II. Gross Margin Comparison with Industry Competitors

Based on 2024-2025 industry data, there is a certain gap between Leapmotor’s gross margin and that of its main competitors:

Automaker Gross Margin Time Node Gap Analysis
Li Auto 20.5% Full Year 2024 Leapmotor lags by approximately 6 percentage points
XPeng Motors 20.1% Q3 2025 Leapmotor lags by approximately 5.6 percentage points
NIO 14.7% Q3 2025 Nearly the same as Leapmotor
Leapmotor 14.5% Q3 2025

Comparative Analysis Illustration:

As can be seen from the figure above, Li Auto ranks first in the industry with a gross margin of 20.5%, XPeng Motors exceeded the 20% mark for the first time in Q3 2025, while Leapmotor remains in the 14%-15% range[3][4].


III. In-Depth Analysis of the Reasons for Gross Margin Gap
1. Differences in Strategic Positioning: Active Choice Rather Than Inadequate Capability

Zhu Jiangming, Founder and Chairman of Leapmotor, clearly stated: “Leapmotor’s gross margin will always stay within 14% to 15%, and the remaining portion will be passed on to users.”[4]

This is not a limitation on gross margin growth, but rather the company’s

actively chosen “Technology Inclusiveness” strategy
:

  • Cost Pricing Strategy
    : Leverage technological advantages to benefit consumers instead of pursuing high premiums
  • Market Positioning
    : Focus on the mass consumer market of RMB 100,000 to 200,000
  • Value Proposition
    : Provide users with “cross-tier configurations”, offering B-class car experience at the price of an A-class car
2. Product Structure Factors
Product Positioning Gross Margin Characteristics Leapmotor’s Situation
High-end Models (RMB 300,000+) High gross margin Leapmotor has not yet focused on deployment
Mid-range Models (RMB 150,000-300,000) Medium gross margin Leapmotor’s C-series as main models
Mass-market Models (Below RMB 150,000) Low gross margin Leapmotor’s entry-level models such as T03

Leapmotor’s product matrix is mainly focused on the mass market below RMB 150,000, which is an important structural factor for its relatively low gross margin[4].

3. Balance Between R&D Investment and Scale Effect

Leapmotor adopts a “Full-Self R&D” strategy, with huge early-stage R&D investment:

  • Self-Development Rate
    : Self-developed rate of core components exceeds 65%, covering 65% of the cost of core new energy vehicle technologies[5]
  • R&D Investment
    : R&D expense ratio was approximately 7.7% in 2024, and is expected to remain at 5%-5.1% in the later period[6]
  • Factory Layout
    : 17 major component factories, 3 highly automated battery pack factories

“Double-Edged Sword” Effect of High R&D Investment:

  • Short-term compression of profit margins
  • Long-term formation of technological barriers and cost advantages
  • Marginal cost decreases after the release of scale effects

IV. Core Drivers of Gross Margin Improvement
1. Continuous Release of Scale Effects
Indicator 2025 2026 Target Improvement Potential
Sales Volume 596,600 units 1 million units 67.6% growth
Capacity Utilization Improving Continuous optimization Dilution of unit fixed costs
Parts Sharing Rate 88% Further increase Enhanced procurement bargaining power

According to forecasts from BOCOM International, as sales volume grows, scale effects will drive gross margin from 8.4% in 2024 to 14.4% in 2025, 15.0% in 2026, and is expected to reach 15.9% in 2027[1].

2. Strengthened Cost Control Capability

Cost Advantages of “Full-Self R&D”:

  • Vertical Integration
    : Self-built 17 types of key component production bases to reduce dependence on external suppliers[5]
  • Platformized Production
    : LEAP3.5 technical architecture achieves 88% parts commonality across models
  • “Invest Only in Equipment, Not in Factory Buildings”
    : Asset-light operation, total fixed asset investment controlled within RMB 7.17 billion[5]

Forecast of Unit Vehicle Cost Reduction (Brokerage Expectations):

  • Through technological iteration and bulk procurement, BOM (Bill of Materials) cost is expected to be continuously optimized
  • Overseas localized production (such as the Zaragoza plant in Spain) will further reduce export costs[2]
3. Increased Contribution from Overseas Business
Indicator 2025 2026 Forecast
Overseas Export Volume 60,000 units 146,000 units[6]
Number of Overseas Markets 35 Continuous expansion
Overseas Stores 800+ Continuous expansion

Gross Margin Advantages of Overseas Business:

  • With the Stellantis channel network, the unit vehicle revenue from overseas is approximately RMB 13,000-14,000 per unit[6]
  • The unit vehicle revenue from overseas sales (Leapmotor holds 49% equity) is approximately twice that of domestic sales
  • Localized production avoids tariff barriers and improves comprehensive gross margin
4. Breakthrough in High-End Product Lines

Leapmotor launched its D-series flagship product line at its 10th Anniversary Brand Ceremony in 2025:

  • D19
    : Luxury SUV
  • D99
    : Luxury MPV

The launch of high-end product lines will

structurally improve the overall gross margin
, and it is expected that the gross margin of models in the RMB 300,000 category can reach over 20%[4].


V. Quantitative Forecast of Gross Margin Improvement Potential
1. Conservative Scenario (Maintain Current Strategy)
Year Gross Margin Forecast Core Assumptions
2025 14.4% Sales growth, release of scale effects
2026 15.0% Overseas volume growth, contribution from D-series
2027 15.9% Will fully enter the profitable period

Gap with Li Auto
: Maintained at 5-6 percentage points (reasonable range)

2. Optimistic Scenario (Breakthrough in High-Endization)

If high-end products such as the D-series are successful, and the proportion of overseas business increases to more than 20%:

Year Gross Margin Forecast Improvement Factors
2025 15% Trial launch of high-end products
2026 17% Dual contributions from high-end and overseas business
2027 18-19% Resonance of scale, high-endization, and overseas expansion

Gap with Li Auto
: Narrowed to 2-3 percentage points

3. Calculation of Upward Repair Potential
Dimension Current Status Theoretical Upper Limit Improvement Potential
Comparison with Li Auto 14.5% 20.5% Approximately 6 percentage points
Comparison with XPeng 14.5% 20.1% Approximately 5.6 percentage points
Historical Peak 14.5% Theoretical 20%+ Approximately 5.5 percentage points

VI. Risk Factors and Sensitivity Analysis
1. Downside Risks
Risk Type Risk Description Sensitivity Impact
Price War Forced price cuts due to intensified industry competition Gross margin may be compressed by 1-2 percentage points
Raw Material Costs Price increases of raw materials such as lithium carbonate Directly affects unit vehicle cost by 3-5%
R&D Investment Higher-than-expected investment in intelligent driving, etc. Short-term suppression of net profit margin
Exchange Rate Fluctuations RMB appreciation affects exports Decline in profit margin of overseas business
2. Upside Potential
Driving Factor Potential Contribution Probability of Achievement
Overseas Sales Explosion 2-3% increase in unit vehicle revenue High
High-End Product Breakthrough 2-3% increase in comprehensive gross margin Medium-High
Technology Licensing Revenue Increase in the proportion of service revenue Medium
Scale Effect 5-8% decrease in unit cost High

VII. Investment Conclusion and Outlook
Core Judgments
  1. Leapmotor’s gross margin level is the result of strategic choice
    , not a capability defect. The company actively chose the “Technology Inclusiveness” route, adopting cost pricing to benefit consumers[4].

  2. Improvement potential exists but is limited
    :

    • Theoretical upward potential: 5-6 percentage points (reaching Li Auto’s level)
    • Reasonable expected potential: 2-3 percentage points (reaching 17-18% in 2027)
  3. Clear improvement path
    : Four pillars of scale effect, high-endization, overseas expansion, and technology-driven cost reduction

Summary of Financial Forecasts
Indicator 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Gross Margin 8.4% 14.4% 15.0% 15.9%
Net Profit Margin Negative Turned positive 2% 3.4%
Net Profit (RMB 100 million) -28.2 6.3 17.3 37.3[1]
Valuation Impact

BOCOM International uses the sum-of-the-parts method, giving Leapmotor a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x/2.0x for 2025 auto sales/service revenue, with a target price of HK$83, representing a 22% potential upside from the current stock price[1].


References

[1] BOCOM International Research Report - Leapmotor (9863.HK): Q2 Profit Turns Positive Again, Full-Year Sales Guidance Raised (August 19, 2025)

[2] Caifuhao - Secured RMB 3.7 Billion from FAW, How Far is Leapmotor from “Leading the Pack”? (December 29, 2025)

[3] Cailianshe - 2025 Year-End Review | Breaking the Curse of “The More You Sell, The More You Lose”? New Energy Vehicle Startups See the Dawn of Profitability in Their “Adolescent” Year (December 29, 2025)

[4] Huxiu - Rejecting Premiums, Sticking to 15% Gross Margin: Leapmotor’s “Counter-Cyclical Growth” Flywheel (December 23, 2025)

[5] NetEase Account - Following Xiaomi, Another Domestic Automaker Rises! Captured 35 Markets in 14 Months (January 2026)

[6] Sinolink Securities - In-Depth Research on Hong Kong Listed Companies: Leapmotor Adheres to the Development Strategy of “Full-Self R&D + Vertical Integration” (July 2024)

[7] Sina Finance - 2025 New Energy Vehicle Startup Upheaval: “Hong-Leap-Xiaomi” Changes the “NIO-XPeng-Li Auto” Landscape (January 6, 2026)

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Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.