Shuangjie Electric (SZ300444): Elasticity Calculation Report for Smart Meter Business Under Grid Investment Acceleration

Now let me generate the complete elasticity calculation report:

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Shuangjie Electric is a GEM-listed company focusing on smart electrical equipment, with over 20 years of experience deeply engaged in the power industry. The company currently adopts a dual-drive development strategy of “Smart Electrical Equipment + New Energy”, covering the four links of source, grid, load, and storage [0][1].

Business Segment	Operating Revenue (CNY 100 million)	Percentage	Gross Profit (CNY 100 million)	Gross Margin
New Energy Construction & Development	11.56	59.5%	1.21	10.47%
Smart Electrical Equipment	6.43	33.0%	1.68	26.13%
Transformers & Prefabricated Substations	3.00	15.4%	0.57	18.90%

The company’s traditional grid business (Smart Electrical Equipment + Transformers) totals CNY 943 million in revenue, with a weighted average gross margin of approximately 23.86%, making it the company’s core business segment with strong profitability [0].

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The State Grid expects fixed asset investment to reach

during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an annual average investment of approximately 1 trillion yuan. In 2026, the investment of State Grid/China Southern Power Grid is expected to reach 700 billion yuan/189 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +7.6%/+8.0% respectively [1][2].

Equipment Category	2024 (CNY 100 million)	2025 (CNY 100 million)	YoY Growth Rate
Distribution Network Area & Joint Tendering	1,180	1,245.7	+5.6%
Power Transmission & Transformation Equipment Tendering	733	918.8	+25.3%
Metering Equipment (Smart Meters)	270	135	-50.0%

It is worth noting that the 2025 decline in smart meter tenders is mainly due to the tendering gap caused by the release of the new State Grid standard, and a simultaneous rise in volume and price is expected in 2026 [1][3].

In the third batch of State Grid metering equipment tenders in November 2025, the price of new standard meters rebounded significantly:

• Class A Meter: Approximately 213 yuan,
  +55%
  month-on-month
• Class B Meter: Approximately 505 yuan,
  +46%
  month-on-month
• Class C Meter: Approximately 428 yuan,
  +37%
  month-on-month
• Class D Meter: Approximately 611 yuan,
  +111%
  month-on-month

It is expected that the 2026 State Grid new standard will drive the domestic smart meter market size to increase by

year-on-year, returning to approximately 29.9 billion yuan [3].

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Parameter	Assumed Value	Explanation
Proportion of Smart Meters in Smart Electrical Equipment Revenue	35%	Estimated based on industry average level
Estimated Smart Meter Revenue	225 million yuan	Accounts for approximately 6.8% of total revenue
Gross Margin of Smart Electrical Equipment	26.13%	Actual figure for H1 2025
Revenue Elasticity Coefficient	1.0-1.5x	Reflects the transmission effect of grid investment

• Smart Meter Business Revenue Growth Rate:
  5.0%
• Smart Meter Business Revenue: 236 million yuan
• Incremental Revenue: 11 million yuan
• Incremental Net Profit: Approximately 4 million yuan

• Smart Meter Business Revenue Growth Rate:
  10.1%
• Smart Meter Business Revenue: 248 million yuan
• Incremental Revenue: 23 million yuan
• Incremental Net Profit: Approximately 9 million yuan

• Smart Meter Business Revenue Growth Rate:
  15.0%
• Smart Meter Business Revenue: 259 million yuan
• Incremental Revenue: 34 million yuan
• Incremental Net Profit: Approximately 13 million yuan

Scenario	Investment Growth Rate	Revenue Elasticity	Grid Business Growth Rate	Grid Business Revenue (CNY 100 million)	Incremental Gross Profit (CNY 100 million)
Low Growth	3.0%	1.0x	3.0%	9.71	0.074
Baseline	6.0%	1.3x	7.8%	10.17	0.192
High Growth	10.0%	1.5x	15.0%	10.84	0.370

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Based on the company’s 2025 expected revenue of 4.4 billion yuan and net profit of 160 million yuan, the 2026 performance elasticity range is as follows:

Scenario	Revenue (CNY 100 million)	YoY Growth Rate	Net Profit (CNY 100 million)	YoY Growth Rate
Conservative Scenario	46.2	+5.0%	1.66	+4.0%
Baseline Scenario	48.7	+10.1%	1.73	+8.1%
Optimistic Scenario	50.6	+15.0%	1.79	+12.0%

• Current Market Capitalization: Approximately 11.6 billion yuan (stock price: 14.82 yuan)
• 2026 Forecast P/E: 67.1x (based on baseline scenario net profit)
• Stock Performance: +121.5% in the past year, +104.4% in the past 6 months [4]

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1. Smart Meter Business Has Limited Elasticity but Obvious Marginal Improvement
   • The smart meter business accounts for approximately 6-7% of the company’s total revenue, contributing about 0.5-1.0 percentage points to overall performance
   • The 2026 new standard brings price recovery (+37%-111%), and profitability is expected to improve significantly

2. Traditional Grid Business is the Main Source of Elasticity
   • Smart electrical equipment + transformer business accounts for approximately 48% of the company’s revenue, directly benefiting from accelerated grid investment
   • Distribution network tenders continue to grow (+5.6% in 2025), and the company’s distribution network equipment orders are sufficient

3. New Energy Business Provides a Second Growth Pole
   • New energy business accounts for over 50% of revenue, with sufficient backlog orders
   • The 2.8 billion yuan source-grid-load-storage integrated project and 1.555 billion yuan photovoltaic base project provide growth momentum

• Grid Investment Falling Short of Expectations
  : The implementation progress of the 15th Five-Year Plan investment plan is uncertain
• Raw Material Price Fluctuations
  : Copper and silicon steel prices have a significant impact on the company’s costs
• Intensified Industry Competition
  : The power grid equipment industry is highly competitive, with continuous price pressure
• New Energy Business Payment Risks
  : Cash flow pressure of EPC business requires attention

Against the backdrop of accelerated grid investment, Shuangjie Electric, as an advantageous supplier of distribution network equipment, will directly benefit. Although the smart meter business accounts for a small proportion, the price recovery brought by the new standard will significantly improve profitability. The company’s core products such as distribution network primary and secondary equipment, transformers are expected to see simultaneous volume and price growth in 2026. Coupled with the continuous volume expansion of the new energy business, its performance elasticity is worth looking forward to.

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[0] Shuangjie Electric Investor Relations Activity Record (http://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97:9494/MRGG/CNSESZ_STOCK/2026/2026-1/2026-01-14/11915677.PDF)

[1] China Galaxy Securities: Domestic Grid Investment Exceeds CNY 1 Trillion/Year, 2026 Power Equipment Export is Expected to Continue Volume and Price Growth (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3168502)

[2] State Grid Releases Record 4 Trillion Yuan Investment Plan (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-16/doc-inhhncwz2674898.shtml)

[3] Sinolink Securities: 2026 Power Equipment Strategy Report - AI-empowered Transformation, Resonance of Domestic and Overseas Demand (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202601051815159513_1.pdf)

[4] Shuangjie Electric Company Profile and Stock Price Data (https://xueqiu.com/S/SZ300444)

[5] 2026 Smart Meter Development Trends: Market Expansion, Technological Iteration and Global Opportunities (https://m.chinabgao.com/info/1297209.html)

[6] Securities Times: Shuangjie Electric’s Revenue Grew 29.08% in the First Three Quarters (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3431573.html)