2026 Outlook for Hollywood Imported Film Introductions and Impact Analysis on Theater Investment Companies

Based on the latest market data and industry research reports, I will conduct a systematic analysis from three dimensions: imported film introduction status, changes in the domestic film market competition landscape, and performance impact on theater investment companies.

According to the latest research report from CITIC Construction Investment Securities, the planned 2026 introductions of top Hollywood IP sequels cover multiple high-box-office franchises [1][2]:

Film Title	Genre	Previous Installment Performance	Introduction Expectation
Avengers 5: The Day of Doom	Superhero	Predecessor Avengers: Endgame grossed RMB 4.25 billion	High certainty
Spider-Man: A New Day	Superhero	Spider-Man franchise cumulative box office exceeds RMB 5 billion	High certainty
Toy Story 5	Animation	Toy Story 4 grossed RMB 207 million	Relatively high certainty
Minions 3	Animation	Minions grossed RMB 237 million	Relatively high certainty
Avatar 3	Sci-Fi	Avatar franchise box office exceeds RMB 3 billion	Confirmed for introduction

• In 2025, the box office of imported films reached RMB 10.885 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, exceeding RMB 10 billion for the first time since 2020 [3]
• Zootopia 2 topped the all-time imported film box office in China with RMB 4.331 billion, surpassing Avengers: Endgame [4]
• Hollywood had a rich film pipeline in 2025, with introduction progress proceeding smoothly [2]

The 2025 domestic film market showed significant structural differentiation characteristics:

Indicator	Value	Year-on-Year Change	Recovery Rate vs. 2019
National Box Office	RMB 51.831 billion	+21.9%	80.8%
Attendance	1.237 billion	+22.6%	71.6%
Average Ticket Price	RMB 41.9	-0.5%	—

1. Strengthened Dominance of Domestic Films
   • Domestic films accounted for 81.90% of total box office, maintaining market dominance [5]
   • Animation films performed strongly: 4 of the top 10 box office films were animations, and Ne Zha: The Devil’s Sea set a box office record of RMB 15.454 billion [3]

2. Recovery of the Imported Film Market
   • Zootopia 2 proved that top IPs still have strong appeal
   • Hollywood animations still have strong competitiveness in the Chinese market

3. Increased Schedule Concentration
   • Top films are more concentrated in core schedules such as the Spring Festival and Summer Vacations
   • The survival space for mid-tier films has narrowed

• Enriches film supply and increases audience viewing frequency
• Drives off-season box office and reduces operational pressure on theaters
• Introduces a competition mechanism and promotes the quality improvement of domestic films

• Imported films have a lower revenue share ratio (usually 25-35%), contributing limitedly to theater box office revenue
• May divert market share from domestic films and intensify schedule competition

Indicator	2025 H1 Data	Year-on-Year Change
Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company	RMB 500-560 million	+340.96%~393.87%
Box Office of Domestic Direct-Operated Theaters	RMB 4.207 billion	14.4% market share
Attendance	82 million	+nearly 10%
Australian HOYTS Theater Chain	Turned profitable	—

1. Channel-Side Revenue
   • Imported film box office revenue share accounts for approximately 40-43% of theater revenue, making it an important revenue source
   • Top imported films such as Zootopia 2 accounted for over 60% of screenings, directly boosting Wanda Cinema’s box office [6]

2. Non-Ticketing Business Growth
   • Zootopia 2 sparked a surge in derivative product sales: relevant products of 52TOYS, a subsidiary of Wanda Film, sold well
   • Exclusive products such as carrot-shaped popcorn buckets generated significant revenue [6]
   • Summer vacation season derivative product sales reached RMB 106 million, with IP derivative revenue increasing 399.5% year-on-year [7]

3. Strategic Synergy Effects
   • Wanda Film’s “1+2+5” strategy (Super Entertainment Space) is highly aligned with imported film IPs
   • Innovative formats such as Pa Lifang (Photo Cube) and IP co-branded activities directly benefit from popular IPs

Indicator	First Three Quarters of 2025	Year-on-Year Change
Operating Revenue	Cumulative for first three quarters	Need attention
Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company	RMB 66.36 million in Q1-Q3	-nearly 70%
Q3 Single-Quarter Net Profit	RMB 177 million	+1463.17%

1. Advantages and Challenges in Distribution

Dimension	Data	Change
Distribution Market Share of Domestic Films	82.66%	Maintained leading position
Distribution Market Share of Imported Films	69.52%	-8.49 percentage points

2. Core Benefits:
   • Imported Film Distribution Rights
     : China Film is the main distributor of imported films, and the introduction of top IPs such as Avengers and Spider-Man will directly contribute to distribution revenue shares
   • Technical Cooperation
     : Avatar 3 uses the CINITY LED system, and China Film Chairman Fu Ruoqing stated, “Let the China Film system be seen globally” [8]
   • CINITY Theater Expansion
     : As of Q3 2025, 218 theaters (including 42 LED theaters) have been opened, forming a technical barrier

3. Performance Elasticity Analysis:
   • For every RMB 1 billion increase in imported film box office, China Film is expected to gain approximately RMB 100-150 million in distribution revenue
   • Technology export and CINITY theater equipment sales have become new growth drivers

• As a pure theater operation company, Hengdian Pictures is more dependent on box office revenue shares
• Growth in imported film box office will directly increase its box office revenue
• Non-ticketing businesses (concessions, derivatives) will benefit simultaneously

• Net loss exceeded RMB 1.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, facing performance pressure
• Invested 20-25% as the main investor in Pegasus 3, which is expected to be the key to turning losses around [9]
• Highly dependent on individual films, with relatively high risk

According to industry practices, the box office revenue sharing structure is as follows:

Total Box Office (100%)
├── Film Special Fund (5%)
├── VAT and Surcharges (~3.3%)
├── Distributable Box Office (~91.7%)
    ├── Theater Chains/Cinemas (40-43%)
    ├── Production/Distribution Parties (33-39%)
    └── Other (5-7%)

• The gross profit margin of ticketing business is low (Wanda Film’s is only 2.46%)
• The gross profit margin of non-ticketing business is as high as over 73%, which is the core source of profit [9]

Company	Core Logic	Risk Points
Wanda Film	Triple benefits from “content + channels + non-ticketing”; Super Entertainment Space strategy implementation	Box office market fluctuations; expansion costs
China Film	Imported film distribution + CINITY technology + domestic film leader	Market share decline risk; project fluctuations
Hengdian Pictures	Pure theater target, benefits from box office recovery	Weak non-ticketing capabilities

Based on the forecast from Zhejiang Securities Research Report [10]:

• Base Scenario
  : 2026 national box office will reach RMB 48.1-58 billion
• Key Assumptions
  :
  • Key schedules will recover to 89%-103% of the same period in 2019
  • Non-key schedules will recover to 68%-84% of the same period in 2019

• Imported film box office is expected to reach RMB 12-15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%-38%
• Top IP sequels will contribute approximately RMB 6-8 billion to imported film box office

• A sufficient supply of imported films will enrich market supply, but it is difficult to change the dominant pattern of domestic films
• Top IP effects will intensify schedule concentration, increasing survival pressure for small and medium-sized films

Impact Dimension	Wanda Film	China Film	Hengdian Pictures
Box Office Revenue Share	★★★★☆	★★★☆☆	★★★★★
Distribution Revenue	★★★☆☆	★★★★★	★☆☆☆☆
Non-Ticketing Growth	★★★★★	★★★★☆	★★☆☆☆
Technology Export	★★☆☆☆	★★★★★	★☆☆☆☆
Comprehensive Rating	Strongest	Second Strongest	Average

1. Wanda Film
   is the biggest beneficiary of the 2026 Spring Festival season and the full year, with its “content + channels + non-ticketing” triple model having unique competitive barriers. Institutions predict that the total revenue share from content and theater operations during the Spring Festival season will reach RMB 350-530 million [9]

2. China Film
   ’s imported film distribution rights and CINITY technology constitute its core competitiveness, but attention needs to be paid to the risk of market share decline

3. Hengdian Pictures
   , as a pure theater operation target, has the highest elasticity but is also most dependent on the overall market recovery

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[1] CITIC Construction Investment Securities: 2026 Hollywood Blockbuster Pipeline is Abundant, Derivative Layout Extends IP Value - Eastmoney (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601203623920537.html)

[2] CITIC Construction Investment Securities 2026 Film Spring Festival and Full-Year Outlook: Optimistic About Spring Festival Box Office, Continue to Bullish on Imported Film Performance - Sina Finance (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2026-01-20/doc-inhhxeic6248835.shtml)

[3] 2026 Hollywood Blockbuster Pipeline is Abundant, Exciting Spring Festival Season Ahead - Sohu (https://m.sohu.com/a/977862310_122094388)

[4] Zootopia 2 Becomes the Highest-Grossing Imported Film in Chinese Film History - Jiemian News (https://www.jiemian.com/lists/48_46.html)

[5] Zootopia 2 Surpasses RMB 3.6 Billion at Box Office, Ranks Top 2 of the Year - Sina Finance (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/7879922982/1d5ae152601909voju)

[6] Shifeng Culture: Has Obtained Official Authorization for Disney’s “Zootopia” IP - Securities Times Network

[7] Wanda Film Releases 2025 H1 Performance Forecast, Net Profit Expected to Increase Over 340% Year-on-Year - 36Kr (https://m.36kr.com/p/3378630110812672)

[8] China Film: The Song of Ice and Fire in the Film Industry is Playing - Eastmoney (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260112003535628276140)

[9] Wanda Film is the Biggest Beneficiary Listed Company of the 2026 Spring Festival Season - Eastmoney (https://emcreative.eastmoney.com/app_fortune/article/index.html?artCode=20260116171317770139720)

[10] Interest Conflicts Emerge: How to Split Revenue in the Film and Television Industry? - Sina Finance (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-30/doc-inheqcrs4262549.shtml)