RMB 500 Billion Private Investment Special Guarantee Program: In-Depth Analysis of Financing Environment and Investment Opportunities

Now I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive policy impact analysis report based on collected information.

---

On January 9, 2026, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, deploying the implementation of a package of fiscal and financial policies to coordinate and expand domestic demand. The meeting clearly proposed the establishment of the

, to be implemented over two years. This is a further increase in central fiscal support for private investment following the 2025 package of domestic demand expansion policies [1][2].

The core objectives of the program are:

• Leverage bank credit to support private investment projects through government guarantee credit enhancement
• Further reduce corporate financing thresholds and costs
• Guide social capital to participate in promoting consumption and expanding investment

Support Category	Specific Uses
Production Operations Category	Equipment procurement, technological transformation, digital-intelligent upgrading, factory expansion, store renovation, operational turnover
Consumption Sector Category	Medium- and long-term loans for catering and accommodation, elderly care and childcare, cultural tourism, green digital retail, etc.

Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that under the multi-level risk-sharing model, the cumulative scale of re-guarantee cooperation business in China has exceeded

, with an average annual growth rate of about 40%, and the average guarantee fee of cooperative institutions has dropped to below 1%, while the comprehensive financing cost of micro and small enterprises has fallen to below 5% [3].

Enterprises applying for the program must meet the following basic conditions:

• Not included in the list of abnormal business operations
• Not included in the list of untrustworthy entities
• Comply with national industrial policies and credit policies
• Have sound operating conditions and repayment capabilities

---

Based on policy design and market analysis, the expected improvements to the financing environment are as follows:

Financing Environment Indicator	Before Policy Implementation	After Policy Implementation (Expected)	Improvement Magnitude
Financing Cost	55 points	75 points	-36.4%
Financing Channels	50 points	80 points	+30 points
Financing Efficiency	45 points	78 points	+33 points
Credit Enhancement	40 points	82 points	+42 points
Risk Sharing	35 points	85 points	+50 points

Dong Ximiao, Chief Researcher of China UnionPay and Deputy Director of the Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, believes that interest discount policies can focus on industries and enterprises with high technological content or large employment capacity such as technological innovation and high-end manufacturing, promoting the development of key areas and weak links [1].

The policy will function through the following mechanisms:

• National Financing Guarantee Fund: 20%
• Provincial Re-guarantee Institutions: 20%
• City-County Direct Guarantee Institutions: 40%
• Banks: 20%

The “Private Investment Special Guarantee Program”, relying on the financing guarantee mechanism, can play the role of government credit endorsement, reducing financial institutions’ concerns about private investment projects and targeted restoration of market expectations [3].

Through the guiding investment of central budgetary funds, directly reduce the initial capital contribution pressure of private capital; the “credit endorsement” of policy funds improves the financing qualification of projects, attracting social capital such as banks to follow up.

This program forms synergies with the following policies:

Synergistic Policy	Action Area
MSME Loan Interest Discount Policy	Further reduce corporate burdens
Private Enterprise Bond Risk-Sharing Mechanism	Enhance market subscription willingness
Equipment Update Loan Fiscal Interest Discount Policy	Support manufacturing technological upgrading
Technological Innovation Special Guarantee Program	Support financing for tech innovation enterprises

---

Based on policy support directions and funding uses, beneficiary industries can be divided into three tiers:

Industry	Policy Benefit Score	Core Logic
Manufacturing	95 points	Directly benefits from equipment procurement, technological transformation, factory expansion
Technology Services	88 points	Core support area for digital-intelligent upgrading and digital transformation

Industry	Policy Benefit Score	Core Logic
Consumer Retail	82 points	Capital support for store renovation and operational turnover
Catering and Accommodation	78 points	Key support target in the consumption sector
Cultural Tourism	75 points	Key support area for service consumption

Industry	Policy Benefit Score	Core Logic
Elderly Care and Childcare	72 points	Key support area for livelihood consumption
Green Digital Retail	70 points	Policy-encouraged direction for new consumption forms

:

• Focus on leading enterprises in sub-sectors with technological transformation needs
• Industrial machine tools, robotics, intelligent manufacturing enterprises with strong equipment update demand
• Capacity-expanding enterprises with factory expansion needs

:

• Enterprise digital transformation service providers (SaaS, industrial software)
• Intelligent manufacturing solution providers
• Cloud computing, artificial intelligence technology service enterprises

:

• Chain operation enterprises (high capital demand, strong expansion willingness)
• Regional retail leaders
• New format enterprises such as new retail and live-stream e-commerce

Risk Type	Specific Performance	Response Suggestions
Policy Implementation Risk	Differences in local enforcement intensity	Pay attention to the implementation of supporting policies
Capital Flow Risk	Funds may deviate from the real economy	Pay attention to regulatory tracking mechanisms
Industry Differentiation Risk	Not all enterprises can benefit	Select leading industry targets
Macroeconomic Risk	Uncertainty in demand recovery	Combine macroeconomic trends for judgment

---

From the market reaction after the policy was released:

• Industrial Sector
  performed best, rising 0.42% on the day [4]
• Financial Services
  rose 0.30%
• Consumer Staples
  rose 0.25%
• Real Estate
  rose 0.17%

These sector increases reflect the market’s positive response to the policy benefits.

Based on policy orientation, funds are expected to mainly flow to:

1. Advanced Manufacturing
   : Technological transformation, equipment update projects
2. Technological Innovation Enterprises
   : Digital transformation, intelligent upgrading
3. Service Industry Leaders
   : Chain expansion, operational turnover
4. Consumption Sector
   : Catering, retail, cultural tourism and other livelihood industries

Data from the National Development and Reform Commission shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, private project investment excluding real estate development private investment increased by 2.1% year-on-year, of which private investment in infrastructure increased by 7% year-on-year, and private investment in manufacturing increased by 3.2% year-on-year [1].

---

:

• Manufacturing equipment update theme funds
• Small and medium-sized growth stocks directly benefiting from the policy
• Valuation repair opportunities for consumer leading enterprises

:

• Accumulate on dips, avoid chasing highs
• Pay attention to announcements of the first batch of enterprises receiving guarantee support
• Pay attention to the implementation of local government supporting policies

:

• Order growth of leading manufacturing enterprises undergoing technological transformation
• Performance realization of digital transformation service providers
• Performance elasticity brought by consumption recovery

:

• Select targets with core competitiveness and financing improvement space
• Pay attention to upstream and downstream industrial chain synergies
• Appropriately increase the allocation ratio of manufacturing and technology sectors

:

• Overall competitiveness improvement of manufacturing
• Structural opportunities in consumption upgrading
• Growth dividends of specialized, sophisticated, unique, and new (“Little Giant”) enterprises

---

1. Policy intensity exceeds expectations
   : RMB 500 billion scale, implemented over two years, reflecting high importance to private investment

2. Significant improvement in financing environment
   : Effectively reducing corporate financing thresholds and costs through government credit endorsement and risk-sharing mechanisms

3. Clear industry opportunities
   : Three sectors of manufacturing, technology services, and consumer retail will directly benefit

4. Positive market reaction
   : Related sectors performed actively after the policy release, and capital allocation willingness has increased

Time Node	Focus Matters
1-2 Months	Implementation of local supporting policies
Q1	Implementation of the first batch of guarantee projects
H1	Verification of operating performance improvement of related enterprises
Full Year	Policy effect evaluation and subsequent adjustments

---

[1] People’s Daily Online - “Joint Policy Efforts to Add Momentum to the Quality and Efficiency Improvement of Private Investment” (http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0114/c1004-40645391.html)

[2] Securities Times - “State Council Sets Tone: Continue to Subsidize Consumer Loans and Implement Loan Interest Discounts for MSMEs in 2026” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3588781.html)

[3] Securities Times - “Central Fiscal Support Intensifies: What to Expect from the Private Special Guarantee Program?” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3593578.html)

[4] Jinling AI - Market Data API (based on sector_performance data as of January 20, 2026)