In-Depth Analysis of the Impact of 30 Innovative Drugs Being Included in Medical Insurance on the Commercialization Prospects and Valuation of Chinese Innovative Pharmaceutical Companies

Now I will compile the collected data and information to write a systematic and comprehensive analysis report for you.

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2025 was a milestone year in the history of China’s pharmaceutical innovation. According to authoritative industry data, the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) approved a total of

for marketing in 2025, a significant compared to 48 in 2024, hitting a record high [1][2]. These approved drugs cover diversified therapy categories including chemical drugs, biological products (including antibody drugs, cell and gene therapies, antibody-drug conjugates, etc.) and proprietary Chinese medicines, marking the full harvest period of China’s innovative drug R&D.

In terms of medical insurance access, a total of

in the 2025 National Medical Insurance Catalog adjustment, including 105 newly added through negotiation, 7 through bidding, and 2 through conventional addition. The negotiation success rate reached as high as , a seven-year high [3]. Notably, , covering cutting-edge technologies such as monoclonal antibodies, ADC drugs, and siRNA. The time gap from approval to inclusion in medical insurance has been significantly shortened, and some drugs approved in 2025 were quickly included in medical insurance, reflecting the policy orientation of “accelerated access”.

Starting from January 1, 2026, the 2025 edition of the National Medical Insurance Drug Catalog was officially fully implemented, with the total number of drugs in the catalog increasing to

. Compared with the previous edition, 114 drugs were added and 29 drugs with low clinical value were removed, realizing dynamic optimization of “in and out” [4].

According to the background information provided by the user, 30 innovative drugs have been included in the medical insurance catalog. Combined with industry white papers and medical insurance negotiation data analysis, these 30 drugs have the following characteristics:

Category	Details
Technology Type	Dominated by biological drugs, including cutting-edge therapies such as bispecific antibodies, ADCs, CAR-T, etc.
Therapeutic Area	Oncology (36 newly added), chronic diseases, rare diseases, pediatrics and other fields
Price Reduction Range	Most varieties have a price reduction ranging from 40% to 80%, with only 2 varieties having a price reduction exceeding 80%
Negotiation Features	“Stability-oriented, encouraging renewal, precise price reduction”, with as high as 90% of varieties remaining price unchanged

From the enterprise perspective, among the top 19 enterprises with the highest number of off-catalog admissions in 2025,

. Hengrui Medicine ranked first with 11 products successfully negotiated, demonstrating the strong strength of local innovative pharmaceutical companies [3].

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The promotional effect of medical insurance access on innovative drug commercialization has been clearly verified by data. According to core hospital sales data [3]:

• The top 4 best-selling products in core hospitals in 2025 are all included in the medical insurance catalog, and all have been covered by medical insurance for more than 5 years, demonstrating the long-term support of medical insurance access for drug sales
• Cadonilimab, a representative bispecific antibody, also made it to the sales list, and medical insurance coverage has significantly expanded patient access

• All top 5 best-selling ADC products in core hospitals in 2025 are included in the medical insurance catalog
• ADC sales show a stronger positive correlation with medical insurance access
• Trastuzumab deruxtecan and Polatuzumab vedotin were implemented in the first year of medical insurance coverage in 2025, with sales volume
  nearly doubling
  compared to the previous year

• A total of 13 bispecific antibody products have been marketed in China, and the number increased to 4 in the 2025 catalog
• Faricimab and Yiwosimab were implemented in the first year of medical insurance coverage in 2025, and their sales in core hospitals increased significantly compared to 2024

These data clearly indicate that medical insurance access is a key path for innovative drugs to achieve commercialization, as it can significantly expand the patient base, improve drug accessibility, and thus drive rapid expansion of sales scale.

According to the 2025 Annual Innovation White Paper on Innovative Drugs and Supply Chain [1], with more products launched in China and overseas, commercialization capabilities are undergoing profound changes:

Development Stage	Core Characteristics	Enterprise Requirements
Early Stage	Focus on sales team building	Emphasis on channel expansion and personnel growth
Current Stage	Systematic project integrating market access, medical insurance payment, channel management, brand building and patient services	Requires integrated R&D, production and marketing capabilities
Future Requirements	Ability to convert clinical advantages into market share, revenue and profits	Becomes the ultimate criterion for judging whether a star pipeline can become a blockbuster product

This upgrade puts forward higher requirements for innovative pharmaceutical companies:

• Market Access Capability
  : Need to deal with multiple links such as medical insurance negotiation, bidding and procurement, and hospital access simultaneously
• Channel Management Capability
  : Need to establish a professional marketing network covering the whole country
• Brand Building Capability
  : Need to build product awareness and trust among doctors and patients
• Patient Service Capability
  : Need to provide value-added services such as patient education and follow-up management

Leading enterprises that have established integrated R&D, production and marketing platforms, have cash flow support from marketed products, and possess international BD and commercialization experience are entering a

[1]:

:

• In 2025, it reached a cooperation with GSK on the PDE3/4 inhibitor HRS-9821 and 11 early-stage projects, with a potential total value of
  US$12.5 billion
  , creating a new model of in-depth cooperation between local pharmaceutical companies and international giants
• R&D investment in the first half of the year exceeded RMB 1 billion, focusing on hot areas such as ADCs and bispecific antibodies
• 11 products were successfully included in medical insurance through negotiation, ranking first in the number of off-catalog admissions

:

• R&D expenses in the first three quarters of 2025 reached
  US$1.53 billion
  , accounting for 39.80% of revenue
• Core products such as Zanubrutinib and Tislelizumab have achieved global volume growth
• For the first time, it realized “R&D no longer consumes existing cash” and entered a self-sustaining stage
• It has transformed from a “loss leader” to a profitable enterprise, proving the feasibility of the heavy-asset model of “dual reporting in China and the US, self-built global commercialization”

Companies with unique and clinically verified platform technologies in segmented technology fields such as ADC, PROTAC, cell therapy, RNA therapy, and AI drug discovery, even if they are small in scale, can become indispensable

in the industrial ecosystem [1]:

Technology Field	Representative Enterprises	Characteristic Advantages
Nuclear Medicine	Dongcheng Pharmaceutical	Builds a full-coverage ecosystem of “screening-diagnosis-treatment” for radiopharmaceuticals
CAR-T	CARsgen Therapeutics, JW Therapeutics	Achieves technological breakthroughs in cell therapy platforms
Bispecific Antibodies	Akeso Biopharma	Successfully commercializes blockbuster products such as Cadonilimab
ADC	Kelun Pharmaceutical	5 varieties including Lukangsatuzumab successfully negotiated

Enterprises lacking core differentiated innovation, with pipelines crowded in crowded tracks and no cost advantages will face challenges such as

[1]. Taking the PD-1 track as an example:

• A total of 26 PD-(L)1 monoclonal antibodies have been approved for marketing globally, of which more than 10 are domestic Chinese innovative drugs
• Ten PD-1 drugs have been included in the medical insurance catalog
• The annual treatment cost has dropped from approximately RMB 187,200 in 2019 to
  RMB 50,000
  after the 2025 medical insurance negotiation, shrinking the market space by two-thirds

As Zhang Xiao, Managing Director of CEC Capital, said: “Now companies developing PD-1 drugs, if their products have not yet been launched, their commercial value may be difficult to realize.”

In December 2025, the first edition of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog was officially released, with a total of

included (mainly 5 CAR-T cell therapies), marking the official entry of China’s medical payment system into the [2][5].

This policy has far-reaching implications:

1. Improved Payment Capacity
   : Innovative therapies with ultra-high treatment costs such as CAR-T have received systematic payment support for the first time
2. Reconstructed Market Access
   : The innovative drug catalog provides medication references for hospitals, with de facto mandatory effect
3. Improved R&D Returns
   : The multi-level payment system has enhanced the expected commercial returns of innovative drugs

CAR-T therapy has always been a typical challenge in innovative drug commercialization. Despite its significant efficacy, the treatment cost generally exceeds RMB 1 million, with limited medical insurance coverage, resulting in huge commercialization challenges. The inclusion of 5 CAR-T products in the 2025 innovative drug catalog has brought a

to this field [5]:

Enterprise	Product	Commercialization Challenges	Response Strategies
Fosun Pharma	Yikaida (Yescarta China)	2024 sales reached RMB 300-500 million, only about 3% of Gilead’s Yescarta	Leverages dual coverage of medical insurance and commercial insurance
JW Therapeutics	—	RMB 267 million loss in the first half of 2025	Waits for commercial insurance implementation to drive volume growth
CARsgen Therapeutics	—	Approximately RMB 75 million loss in 2025	Promotes the R&D of universal CAR-T to reduce costs
Legend Biotech	—	Net profit of -US$226 million	Relies on cooperation with Janssen to promote globalization

Zhu Minglai, Director of the Center for Health Economics and Medical Security at Nankai University, said: “The medical insurance catalog is basically mandatory for hospitals, but the innovative drug catalog is not, and its implementation effect in hospitals still needs to be observed.” This means that the commercialization success of CAR-T still takes time, but the improvement of the payment system has opened the door to commercialization.

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Traditionally, the valuation of innovative pharmaceutical companies mainly relies on the “pipeline valuation method” (rNPV), which discounts the success probability, milestone value and future sales expectations of each pipeline project. However, this method has obvious limitations:

Limitations	Specific Performance
Ignoring Commercialization Capabilities	Overemphasis on R&D pipelines while ignoring the construction of sales and commercialization teams
Time Value Depreciation	Continuous capital consumption during the long-cycle R&D process
Cash Flow Uncertainty	Volatile valuation due to clinical failure risks

In 2025, as leading enterprises such as BeiGene and Innovent Biologics achieve profitability, the valuation logic of innovative pharmaceutical companies in the capital market is undergoing profound changes [6]:

• The total financing volume in the primary market tends to be prudent, but funds are highly concentrated in mid-to-late stage projects from Series B onwards
• IPO companies in the secondary market must rely on solid clinical progress and commercialization prospects to gain recognition

• After turning profitable, BeiGene completed the “valuation logic switch and capital strategy upgrade”
• Investors have begun to focus on enterprises’
  self-sustaining capabilities
  and
  cash flow status

As a leading domestic innovative pharmaceutical company, Hengrui Medicine’s valuation level reflects the market’s overall expectations for the innovative drug industry [0]:

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	US$387 billion	The largest pharmaceutical company by market capitalization in A-share market
P/E (TTM)	53.67x	Significantly higher than the industry average
P/B	6.74x	Reflects high growth expectations
ROE	14.19%	Strong profitability
Net Profit Margin	24.10%	Excellent operational efficiency

From a technical analysis perspective, Hengrui Medicine is currently in a

(sideways/no clear trend), with a trading range reference of [$59.77, $62.14] [0]. The RSI indicator shows it is in the oversold zone, with potential rebound opportunities. The beta value is 0.26, indicating low correlation with the broader market and certain defensive characteristics.

According to industry data, the valuation of different types of innovative pharmaceutical companies shows significant differentiation:

Enterprise Type	Valuation Characteristics	Representative Enterprises
Platform-Type Leaders	High P/E, high P/B, enjoying growth premium	Hengrui Medicine, BeiGene
Biopharma	Medium valuation, focus on profit inflection point	Innovent Biologics, Junshi Biosciences
Biotech	Low valuation or unprofitable, relying on pipeline value	Most 18A enterprises

In 2025, the total amount of BD transactions in China’s innovative drug sector reached

, a compared to 2024, with a total down payment of for all transactions [6]. The valuation enhancement effect of BD transactions is reflected in multiple dimensions:

1. Cash Flow Supplement
   : Down payments directly increase enterprises’ cash reserves
2. Pipeline Value Verification
   : Recognition from international giants enhances pipeline valuation
3. R&D Risk Sharing
   : Milestone payments reduce the R&D risk of single products

• Hengrui Medicine’s cooperation with GSK: US$500 million down payment, potential total value of approximately US$12 billion
• Innovent Biologics’ cooperation with Takeda: US$1.2 billion down payment (including US$100 million strategic equity investment), potential total value of up to US$11.4 billion

Medical insurance negotiation is usually accompanied by significant price cuts, which may put pressure on pharmaceutical companies’ revenue and profits in the short term, thereby affecting valuation:

Impact Path	Specific Performance
Price Decline	Average price reduction of 40%-80%, compressing single product profit margins
Volume Growth Offset	Medical insurance access expands the patient base, partially offsetting price declines
Intensified Competition	Similar drugs are admitted simultaneously, leading to fierce price competition

From a long-term perspective, the positive impact of medical insurance access on valuation is more significant:

1. Market Scale Expansion
   : Improved patient accessibility drives the growth of the overall market scale
2. Cash Flow Improvement
   : Medical insurance payment cycles are relatively stable, improving enterprises’ cash flow
3. Strengthened Competitive Barriers
   : Enterprises that gain early access establish first-mover advantages
4. International Endorsement
   : Medical insurance access experience enhances enterprises’ international reputation

According to forecasts from institutions such as ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, the performance of individual stocks in the pharmaceutical industry in 2026 will rely more on

[2]. This means that enterprises that successfully obtain medical insurance access and drive volume growth will receive higher valuation premiums.

In June 2024, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the

, canceling restrictions on revenue and profits, and replacing them with core indicators of “market capitalization + R&D”, which greatly improved the financing capacity of unprofitable Biotech companies [6]. The impact of this policy change on valuation includes:

Policy Change	Valuation Impact
Unprofitable enterprises can go public	Expands the exit channels for innovative pharmaceutical companies
R&D investment is included in consideration	Encourages enterprises to increase innovation investment
Market capitalization-oriented	Promotes enterprises to focus on long-term value creation

Chapter 18A of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tailor-made listing standards for unprofitable technology enterprises, providing a

for innovative pharmaceutical companies [6]. By the end of 2025, the Hong Kong stock pharmaceutical industry is expected to enter a “new stage of value realization”.

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BeiGene achieved profitability in 2025, and its successful experience has important reference value [6][7]:

1. Global Volume Growth of Core Products
   : Core products such as Zanubrutinib and Tislelizumab have achieved large-scale sales in global markets
2. Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement
   : Large-scale production + process optimization, with sales and management expense growth rate lower than revenue growth rate for the first time
3. Self-Sustaining Capability
   : For the first time, it realized “R&D no longer consumes existing cash” and entered a virtuous cycle

After successfully turning profitable, BeiGene completed its

:

• From “pipeline valuation” to “profit valuation”
• From “expected discounting” to “actual profits”
• Achieved “capital strategy upgrade”

Growth Driver	Details
Late-Stage Products	Sotoclax (BCL2 inhibitor), pan-KRAS inhibitor, etc.
Cutting-Edge Technologies	ADCs, trispecific antibodies, etc.
Milestone Progress	Expected to achieve more than 20 milestones in the next 18 months

Innovent Biologics achieved operating revenue of

in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of ; net profit reached , successfully turning profitable (net profit was -RMB 393 million in the same period last year); gross profit margin increased by 3.1 percentage points to [7].

Different from BeiGene, Innovent Biologics’ turnaround largely relies on

, especially large-scale BD revenue sharing:

• On October 22, 2025, it reached a
  US$11.4 billion
  cooperation with Takeda
• Surpasses the traditional “selling early-stage projects” model to achieve in-depth cooperation
• Receives a US$1.2 billion down payment (including US$100 million strategic equity investment)

Innovent Biologics also faces multiple challenges:

• Homogeneous Competition
  : There are 21 GLP-1 drugs in R&D, with fierce competition
• R&D Variables
  : PI3K inhibitors and other projects have encountered clinical failures
• Limited Medical Insurance Coverage
  : Only a few of its numerous products are included in medical insurance