In-Depth Analysis of the Impact of the 5 Billion Yuan Expansion Policy for Government-led Financing Guarantee System

Based on the latest policy information and market data, I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

---

On January 20, 2026, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the People’s Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Regulation jointly issued the Notice on Implementing the Special Guarantee Plan for Private Investment (Cai Jin [2026] No. 6). This is another major coordinated fiscal and financial policy following the Guiding Opinions on Further Leveraging the Role of the Government-led Financing Guarantee System to Strengthen Support for Employment and Entrepreneurship issued in December 2025 [1][2].

Measure Category	Specific Content	Policy Intensity
Capital Injection	Central government injects 5 billion yuan into the National Financing Guarantee Fund	Enhance capital strength of the system’s leader
Plan Scale	500 billion yuan Special Guarantee Plan for Private Investment, implemented in two phases	Unprecedented scale, wide coverage
System Linkage	Implement "National-Provincial-Municipal" three-level equity investment and business linkage	Improve multi-level guarantee system
Risk Sharing Mechanism	The National Financing Guarantee Fund’s risk sharing ratio reaches up to 40% (for loans with terms ≥5 years)	Differentiated risk sharing
Fee Reduction Measures	National Financing Guarantee Fund halves re-guarantee fees; direct guarantee institutions’ rates ≤1%	Reduce enterprise financing costs
Compensation Cap	Increase compensation rate cap from 4% to 5%	Improve risk tolerance

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│            National Financing Guarantee Fund (Leader)       │
│                5 Billion Yuan Capital Injection             │
└─────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────────────┘
                      │Equity Investment & Business Linkage
        ┌─────────────┴─────────────┐
        ▼                           ▼
┌───────────────┐         ┌───────────────────┐
│Provincial Re- │◄──────►│Municipal/County-   │
│Guarantee Inst.│         │level Direct Guarantee│
│(30+ Provincial)│         │Institutions (1,500+)│
└───────────────┘         └───────────────────┘
        │                           │
        └──────────┬────────────────┘
                   ▼
        ┌───────────────────────┐
        │Banking Institutions    │
        │(80/20 Risk Sharing)    │
        │Risk Liability Ratio ≥20%│
        └───────────────────────┘
                   │
                   ▼
        ┌───────────────────────┐
        │Micro, Small & Medium  │
        │Enterprises/Individual │
        │Business Owners        │
        │Financing Support for  │
        │Private Investment     │
        └───────────────────────┘

---

According to the policy document, eligible private investment loans for SMEs can enjoy special guarantee support, covering the following fields [2]:

• Production and Operation Fields
  : Equipment procurement, technological transformation, digital and intelligent transformation (including software and hardware), factory expansion and renovation, store decoration, working capital
• Consumer Service Fields
  : Catering and accommodation, health and elderly care, childcare and housekeeping, cultural and entertainment, tourism and sports, green digital retail, etc.

Loan Type	Single Customer Guaranteed Credit Limit	Policy Orientation
General Projects	≤20 million yuan	Support conventional financing needs of SMEs
High-Quality Projects in Key Fields	Increased support within the quota	Encourage high-quality projects aligned with national strategies

The policy clearly requires government-led financing guarantee institutions [1][3]:

• Gradually reduce or cancel collateral and counter-guarantee requirements for labor-intensive micro and small enterprises with high employment absorption
• Weaken profit assessment
• Increase support for first-time loan and first-time guarantee customers

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│Central Government Financial Support                          │
│       │                                                      │
│       ▼                                                      │
│National Financing Guarantee Fund: Halved Re-Guarantee Fees +│
│                                  Fee Reduction Subsidies     │
│       │                                                      │
│       ▼ (Layer-by-Layer Transmission)                        │
│Direct Guarantee Institutions: Guarantee Rates ≤1%            │
│       │                                                      │
│       ▼                                                      │
│Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises: Actual Financing Costs Reduced│
│                          (Comprehensive Costs <5% for Micro-Enterprises)│
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Based on policy design and industry data [4]:

• Guarantee Rate Reduction
  : From the industry average of 1.5%-2% to no more than 1%
• Comprehensive Financing Costs
  : Micro and small enterprise loan costs reduced by approximately 50-80 BP
• Policy Leverage Effect
  : Every 100 million yuan invested by the central government can leverage about 5 billion yuan in entrepreneurship guarantee loans

• "Quick Review, Quick Approval, Quick Guarantee, Quick Loan" mechanism
  : Establish a four-quick service model
• Bank-Guarantee "Head-to-Head" Cooperation Model
  : Bulk cooperation, simplified processes
• Promotion of Online Services
  : Digitalization to improve service efficiency

The policy encourages exploration of innovative models [2]:

• "Supply Chain + Financing Guarantee"
• "Scenario Finance + Digital Renminbi"
• Special financial products for micro and small enterprises to pay employee salaries
• "Job Stabilization and Expansion Special Loans"

---

Impact Dimension	Specific Impact	Expected Improvement
Credit Risk	Government-led guarantee shares banks’ risks	Non-performing loan ratio of micro and small loans drops by 10-15 BP
Business Growth	500 billion yuan guarantee plan drives supporting credit	Incremental micro and small loans reach 800 billion-1 trillion yuan
Revenue Growth	Expansion of inclusive finance business scale	Interest income grows by 5-8% year-on-year
Valuation Recovery	Risk improvement + accelerated growth	PB valuation recovers by 0.1-0.2 times

:

• China Merchants Bank (600036)
  : High proportion of retail micro and small loans, strong digital service capabilities
• Ping An Bank (000001)
  : Group guarantee business synergy, Ping An ecosystem empowerment

:

• Bank of Chengdu (601838)
  : Western Financial Center, obvious regional advantages
• Bank of Guiyang (601918)
  : Benefits from central and western regional policy tilts

According to data from the National Financing Guarantee Fund [4]:

• Cumulative Cooperative Business Scale
  : Over 6.7 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of about 40%
• Served Customers
  : Cumulative service to over 5.7 million micro, small, and medium enterprises and other business entities
• Employment Stabilization
  : Approximately 59 million person-times (every 100 million yuan in guarantees stabilizes over 800 jobs)

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│            Profitability Improvement of Guarantee Institutions│
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│Revenue Side:                                                 │
│  ├── Business Scale Expansion → Growth in Guarantee Fee Income│
│  └── Fee Reduction Subsidies → Offset Losses from Policy-Oriented Business│
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│Cost Side:                                                   │
│  ├── Risk Sharing Mechanism → Reduced Compensation Pressure  │
│  └── Economies of Scale → Amortized Fixed Costs              │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│Profit Side:                                                 │
│  └── Expected ROE Increase of 1-2 Percentage Points          │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

• Bond Underwriting Opportunities
  : Increased demand for private enterprise bond guarantees, benefiting securities firms with strong bond underwriting capabilities
• M&A and Restructuring
  : Improved operations of micro and small enterprises may bring M&A opportunities

• Credit Guarantee Insurance
  : Government guarantees and commercial insurance form a complementary relationship
• Micro and Small Enterprise Insurance
  : Increased demand for property insurance, accident insurance, and liability insurance
• Health Insurance Growth
  : Release of protection demand from entrepreneurial groups

• Yinzhijie (300085)
  : Bank-guarantee system service provider, technical system docking
• Yuxin Technology (300674)
  : Bank IT service provider, inclusive finance system construction

---

The policy clearly states "Focus on the balance of policy support, and appropriately tilt towards central and western regions" [2][3], specifically reflected in:

• The National Financing Guarantee Fund prioritizes central and western institutions when injecting capital into provincial guarantee institutions
• Make up for the shortage of capital of central and western guarantee institutions
• Enhance regional guarantee capabilities

• Local financial performance evaluation takes into account differences in regional basic conditions
• Central and western institutions are more likely to receive rewards under the same conditions
• Form a differentiated incentive mechanism

The policy creates an "employment contribution" index. Central and western regions naturally have advantages in the employment contribution assessment due to [1]:

• Greater employment pressure
• Higher proportion of labor-intensive industries
• More urgent demand for job stabilization

Thus, they are more likely to receive preferential re-guarantee resources.

Field	Beneficiary Segments	Policy Support Focus
Agriculture Guarantee	Rural Revitalization, Characteristic Agriculture	Agricultural guarantee fee subsidies, risk compensation
Tourism Guarantee	Cultural and Tourism Industry Upgrading	Interest subsidies for tourism project guarantees
Resource Processing	Industrial Transformation and Upgrading	Guarantee support for technological transformation
Entrepreneurship Guarantee	Migrant Workers Returning to Start Businesses, College Students Starting Businesses	Interest subsidies for entrepreneurship guarantee loans
Employment Guarantee	Development of Labor-Intensive Enterprises	Special Loans for Job Stabilization and Expansion
Consumption Guarantee	Service Industry Development	Guarantee for consumption scenario upgrading and renovation

Index	Expected Improvement Range	Explanation
Financing Accessibility	+15-20%	Increase in the proportion of micro and small enterprises obtaining guaranteed loans
Financing Costs	-20-30 BP	Guarantee rate reduction transmitted to terminal interest rates
Guarantee Coverage	+10 percentage points	Significant increase in government-led guarantee coverage
Private Investment	+8-10%	Increase in the growth rate of private investment in central and western regions
Employment Drive	+500,000 jobs or more	Stabilized and new employment positions

---

Sector	Target	Code	Beneficiary Logic
Banking	China Merchants Bank	600036.SH	Inclusive finance leader, advantages in retail micro and small business
Banking	Ping An Bank	000001.SZ	Group guarantee business synergy, ecosystem empowerment
Banking	Bank of Chengdu	601838.SH	Western Financial Center, benefits from policy tilts
Banking	Bank of Guiyang	601918.SH	Regional leader in Guizhou, benefits from central and western region policies
Insurance	Ping An of China	601318.SH	Synergy in credit guarantee insurance business
Financial Technology	Yinzhijie	300085.SZ	Bank-guarantee system service provider
Financial Technology	Yuxin Technology	300674.SZ	Bank IT service provider, inclusive finance system construction

Time Node	Market Expectation Stage	Investment Strategy
Policy Release Period	Expectation formation stage	Pre-layout core beneficiary targets
Performance Realization Period	Business data verification stage	Add positions in targets with improved fundamentals
Valuation Recovery Period	Valuation uplift stage	Hold for price appreciation

• Local Government Supporting Funds
  : Uncertainty in the disbursement of local financial funds
• Differences in Guarantee Institution Capabilities
  : Uneven risk control capabilities among over 1,500 institutions
• Bank Lending Willingness
  : Banks’ risk appetite may decline during economic downturns

• Economic Cycle Risks
  : Credit risks may emerge amid downward economic pressure
• Rising Compensation Pressure
  : Increasing the compensation rate cap to 5% means greater risk exposure
• Capital Adequacy Pressure
  : Continuous compensation by guarantee institutions may erode capital

• Anticipated Premature Pricing
  : The market may have partially priced in the policy before its release
• Short-Term Correction Risk
  : Profit-taking may occur after positive news is realized
• Macroeconomic Uncertainties
  : Changes in domestic and international economic situations affect risk appetite

---

The policy optimizes the financing environment for micro and small enterprises through three dimensions—improved accessibility, reduced costs, and enhanced convenience. It is expected that:

• The growth rate of micro and small enterprise loans will increase by 2-3 percentage points in 2026
• Comprehensive financing costs for micro-enterprises will decrease by 50-80 BP
• The policy effects will be concentrated in the second half of 2026

• Banking Sector
  : Expected improvement in asset quality boosts valuations, with a recovery space of 5-10%
• Guarantee Industry
  : Faces historic development opportunities, with business scale growing by over 20%
• Overall Financial Sector
  : Valuation center shifts upward, with a recovery space of 5-10%

Central and western regions receive more policy dividends, and the regional financing gap is expected to narrow, promoting the achievement of common prosperity goals.

Time Node	Expected Progress	Key Observation Indicators
2026	Policy Implementation Period	Guaranteed loan disbursement scale, supporting credit disbursement by banks
2027	Business Scale Expansion Period	Growth rate of guaranteed balance, number of served customers
2028	Risk Exposure and Resolution Period	Changes in compensation rates, trends in non-performing loan ratios
Long-Term	Inclusive Guarantee System Improvement	Coverage rate, accessibility, cost indicators

The policy forms synergy with the following areas:

• Employment and Entrepreneurship Policies
  : Interest subsidies for entrepreneurship guarantee loans, linkage with employment contribution
• Scientific and Technological Innovation Policies
  : Support for special guarantee plans for scientific and technological innovation
• Consumption Policies
  : Interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans
• Industrial Policies
  : Equipment renewal, technological transformation, digital and intelligent upgrading

Forming a positive closed loop of "financial leverage, guarantee credit enhancement, loan follow-up, and real economy benefits".

---

[1] Ministry of Finance. Q&A on Guiding Opinions on Further Leveraging the Role of the Government-led Financing Guarantee System to Strengthen Support for Employment and Entrepreneurship. http://jrs.mof.gov.cn/zhengcejiedu/202512/t20251226_3980439.htm

[2] Ministry of Finance and three other departments. Notice on Implementing the Special Guarantee Plan for Private Investment (Cai Jin [2026] No. 6). https://jrs.mof.gov.cn/zhengcefabu/phjr/202601/t20260119_3982163.htm

[3] Sina Finance. Ministry of Finance and three other departments: Establish a 500 billion yuan Special Guarantee Plan for Private Investment. https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-20/doc-inhhxqwz9072083.shtml

[4] Economic Information Daily. Strengthen Coordination of Fiscal and Financial Policies. http://paper.ce.cn/pc/attachment/202601/12/f968138d-b01f-4463-854c-66c31b732ad4.pdf

---

: January 20, 2026

: Jinling AI Financial Analysis System