In-Depth Analysis of the Drivers Behind Gold's All-Time High and Its Impact on Gold Mining Stock Investments

I have collected sufficient data and market information, and now I will provide you with a complete gold market analysis report.

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As of January 19, 2026, spot gold prices broke through the $4,690 per ounce mark intraday, continuously hitting new all-time highs [1]. This marks the gold market entering a new price range, with its annual increase exceeding 129%, the strongest annual performance since 1979 [2].

Time Node	Gold Price (USD/oz)	Key Driving Event
Early January 2025	2,050	Starting level at the beginning of the year
March 2025	2,200	Expectations for the Fed’s first interest rate cut rise
June 2025	2,600	Global central bank gold purchases accelerate
September 2025	3,200	Geopolitical risks continue to escalate
December 29, 2025	4,550.52	Hits all-time high for the first time
January 19, 2026	4,690	Continues to set new records

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According to market data and institutional analysis, the rise in gold prices is the result of the resonance of multiple factors [1][2][3]:

Data from the People’s Bank of China shows that as of the end of November 2025, China’s gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces, an increase of 300,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold purchases [1]. Emerging market central banks increasing gold holdings to diversify asset risks has become a structural bullish factor. IMF data shows that the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves continues to decline, with each 5% drop corresponding to a potential rise of about $856 per ounce in gold prices [4].

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, and the market generally expects about two more rate cuts in 2026 [1]. The decline in real interest rates will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing medium-to-long-term support for gold prices. Dan Stiweven, Global Co-Head of Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs, stated that this type of ‘technical balance sheet expansion’ rate cut is most likely to drive metal prices higher [1].

Recently, geopolitical events have erupted intensively:

• Trump plans to impose additional tariffs on 8 countries including Denmark to acquire Greenland [3]
• Tensions in Venezuela, with the US taking military action [1]
• Escalated trade frictions between Europe and the US
• Rising security risks in regions such as Yemen and Nigeria

These factors further highlight gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3].

The US fiscal sustainability crisis has weakened the credibility of the US dollar, and trade tariff policies have accelerated the de-dollarization process [2]. Koichi Kamei, representative of the Market Strategy Institute, pointed out: “Geopolitical factors have stimulated the gold market, and funds such as speculative capital and emerging market central banks are flowing in” [3].

A report from the World Gold Council shows that investment demand, especially through gold ETF allocations, will continue to act as a key driver in the future, offsetting the impact of weak demand in the jewelry and technology sectors [1].

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Institution	Forecast Time Node	Target Price (USD/oz)
JPMorgan Chase	Q4 2026	5,000
JPMorgan Chase	Long-term	6,000
UBS	Q3 2026	5,000
CITIC Securities	End of 2026	5,100+
Shenyin & Wanguo Futures	Full-Year Range	4,500-5,000

[1][4]

: Assume the Fed’s rate cut pace falls short of expectations, and geopolitical risks ease

: In line with current market consensus, with the Fed continuing rate cuts and central bank gold purchases ongoing

: Geopolitical situation further deteriorates, and the Fed accelerates rate cut pace

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After years of downturn, gold mining stocks saw explosive growth in 2025. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) posted an annual increase of over 140%, outperforming spot gold by about 80 percentage points [4]. This reversal stems from three key drivers:

1. Operating Leverage Effect
   : Higher gold prices directly improve miners’ profitability
2. Relieved Cost Pressures
   : Improved cost management by mining companies
3. Valuation Recovery
   : Regression from historical lows to the mean

Company	Ticker	Latest Share Price	1-Year Return	30-Day Return	Analyst Rating
Agnico Eagle Mines	AEM	$199.81	160%	28%	Strong Buy
Newmont Corporation	NEM	$110.00	150%	25%	Buy
Barrick Gold	GOLD	$41.91	54%	31%	Buy
Kinross Gold	KGC	$33.27	130%	35%	Buy
Barrick Gold	B	$49.34	145%	22%	Hold

[0][5]

Market data shows that in 2025, the average return of US-listed gold mining stocks reached 150%, while that of A-share gold mining stocks was less than 75% [5]. This difference mainly stems from:

• Valuation Recovery Space
  : US-listed mining stocks had lower previous valuations, leaving more room for a rebound
• Market Liquidity
  : The US stock market has abundant capital and is more sensitive to cyclical stocks
• Cost Structure Differences
  : Mining companies in different regions have different cost structures

According to UBS calculations, Hong Kong and A-share gold mining companies are currently trading at 15-25x forward P/E, which is lower than the historical median of 30x [4]. If gold prices remain above $4,000 per ounce, the valuations of some high-quality miners are expected to recover to the 26-35x range. Sensitivity analysis shows that under the base case scenario (gold price of $4,675 per ounce in 2026), Chinese gold stocks have a 20%-30% valuation upside potential [4].

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:

• Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)
  : Analysts are particularly bullish on its nearly 4% free cash flow yield; its 2026 Non-GAAP EPS is expected to reach $11-$12, with high certainty in production growth [6]
• Newmont Corporation (NEM)
  : 2026 gold production guidance of 5.6-5.9 million ounces, with the Ahafo North project contributing incremental output [5]
• Gold.com (GOLD)
  : Recently acquired stakes in Monex and Atkinsons, continuing to expand its business footprint [0]

:

• VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
  : A simple and robust investment tool for the gold mining sector [6]
• WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund ETF (GDMN)
  : A strategy combining mining stocks and gold futures [6]

• Shandong Gold (01787.HK/600547.SS)
• China Gold (600916.SS)
• Zijin Mining (601899.SS)

These targets are currently trading at historically low valuations and have valuation recovery opportunities against the backdrop of sustained high gold prices [4].

1. Fed’s rate cut pace falls short of expectations
   : May limit the upside potential of gold prices
2. Sustained rise in mining costs
   : C1+ sustaining capital expenditure has grown at an annualized rate of 7% over the past 20 years; if gold prices stagnate while costs spiral out of control, corporate profits may come under pressure [4]
3. Profit-taking risk from short-term speculative capital
   : Short-term risks in precious metals trading have increased significantly [2]
4. Valuation pullback risk
   : After gold prices have deviated from fundamental indicators and model fits, market volatility may increase significantly

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Gold’s all-time high is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors including macro policies, geopolitics, central bank actions, and market sentiment. Looking ahead to 2026, the foundation of the gold bull market remains solid, but the growth rate may moderate to 10%-15% [2]. For gold mining stocks, they are currently in a dual-driven phase of ‘fundamental improvement + valuation recovery’. Investors should focus on leading miners with strong cost control capabilities and abundant resource reserves, while closely tracking the pace of the Fed’s policy shift and central bank gold purchase dynamics. Against the backdrop of coexisting de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainty, the defensiveness and growth of gold assets are entering a historic convergence window.

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[1] Jiemian News - “Spot Gold Tops $4,690 per Ounce Intraday” (https://www.jiemian.com/article/13902229.html)

[2] China Youth Daily - “Silver and Platinum Hit All-Time Highs, Why Are Precious Metals Performing So Strongly?” (http://m.cyol.com/gb/articles/2025-12/27/content_Ka8adbIBPN.html)

[3] Nikkei Chinese - “Gold Prices Approach $4,700, Hitting New High Again” (https://cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/commodity/61122-2026-01-19-13-03-19.html)

[4] East Money Caifuhao - “UBS 2026 Gold Outlook: In-Depth Analysis of the Davis Double Play in Gold Stocks” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260115000838474821480)

[5] Xueqiu - “Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Price” (https://xueqiu.com/S/NEM)

[6] CMoney - “Gold Price Surge Drives Attention to Mining Stocks; Analysts Point Out Agnico Eagle’s Profit Expectations Are Undervalued with Catch-Up Potential” (https://www.cmoney.tw/notes/note-detail.aspx?nid=1084728)

[0] Gilin API Data (Stock prices, mining stock performance data)