Analysis of the Impact of New Gold Price Highs on Gold Mining Stock Valuations and Investment Opportunities

Based on the latest market data, corporate financial information, and technical analysis I have obtained, I am now presenting a detailed analysis report on gold mining stock valuations and investment opportunities.

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As of mid-January 2026, COMEX gold futures prices have broken through the

threshold, with an intraday gain of 2.3%, hitting a new all-time high[1]. This gold bull market began in 2024 and accelerated in 2025, with an annual increase of over 60%, making it one of the strongest-performing precious metal years since the 1970s.

This round of gold price increases features a

characteristic:

Driver	Weight	Specific Performance
Safe-Haven Demand	30%	Escalating geopolitical risks (situations in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and South America)[1]
Fed Interest Rate Cuts	25%	Falling real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold[1]
Global Central Bank Gold Purchases	20%	Central banks of various countries continue to increase holdings amid the ‘de-dollarization’ trend[2]
Inflation Hedge	15%	Long-term inflation risks cannot be easily dismissed[2]
Weakening US Dollar	7%	Fed’s easing cycle is negative for the US dollar

More importantly, the

. The traditional pricing logic centered on ‘real interest rates + US Dollar Index’ has seen a significant decline in explanatory power since 2022, replaced by a diversified pricing system centered on and reinforced by [2].

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Gold price movements affect mining stock valuations through the following path:

Rising Gold Prices
    ↓
Increased revenue for mining enterprises (volume and price growth)
    ↓
Improved gross profit margin (relatively fixed costs)
    ↓
Release of net profit elasticity
    ↓
Upward revisions to earnings forecasts
    ↓
Rising valuation center ('Davis Double Play')

Liu Tingyu, Fund Manager of Yongying Gold Stock ETF, pointed out that against the backdrop of rising gold prices combined with production expansion, gold enterprises are showing a

benign situation[2]:

• Earnings improvement
  : As corporate profitability improves rapidly, PE valuations are diluted accordingly
• Valuation recovery
  : The market re-evaluates the long-term value of gold stocks, pushing the valuation center upward
• Dual drivers
  : Simultaneous improvement in performance and valuation, creating ‘Davis Double Play’ opportunities

Taking a typical gold mining company as an example:

Cost Indicator	Description
All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC)	Relatively stable, around $1,000-$1,200/oz
Revenue Elasticity	For every $100 increase in gold prices, profit margin rises by approximately 3-5 percentage points
Leverage Effect	Price elasticity is about 1.5-2x (i.e., a 10% increase in gold prices leads to a 15-20% increase in profits)

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As of January 20, 2026, valuations of major gold mining companies are as follows[0]:

Company	Stock Ticker	Market Capitalization (USD 100 million)	PE (TTM)	PB	ROE
Newmont	NEM	1,245	17.42x	3.77x	22.72%
Gold.com	GOLD	10.3	139.93x	1.61x	1.16%
Zhongjin Gold	600489.SS	1,336	30.21x	4.58x	15.61%
Zijin Mining	601899.SS	-	~15.8x	-	-
Shandong Gold	600547.SS	-	~35.6x	-	-

: Current PE valuations of gold mining companies are significantly differentiated:

• Newmont
  : 17.42x, below the historical average
• Gold.com
  : 139.93x, overvalued (special business model)
• A-share gold stocks
  : 15-35x range, with room for valuation recovery

Analysts generally believe[2]:

• As of the end of Q3 2025, the projected 2026 PE of major gold mining companies is only 11-15x (calculated based on a gold price of $3,700/oz)
• The historical average valuation of gold mining companies is around 20x
• Current gold stocks still have
  significant upside for valuation recovery (+67%)

DCF valuation taking Newmont (NEM) as an example shows[0]:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Comparison with Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$39.57	-65.3%
Base Scenario	$38.62	-66.2%
Optimistic Scenario	$45.76	-59.9%
Weighted Average	$41.32	-63.8%

: There is a significant deviation between DCF valuations and market prices, reflecting that market expectations of sustained gold price increases have not yet been fully reflected in traditional valuation models.

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According to Xinhua Finance data[2]:

• 11 gold mining stocks achieved a total operating revenue of
  RMB 545.1 billion
  , with an average year-on-year growth of
  47%
• Total net profit attributable to shareholders reached
  RMB 52.4 billion
  , with an average year-on-year growth of
  52%
• All companies in the sector achieved positive growth in both revenue and net profit

Company	Revenue Growth Rate	Net Profit Growth Rate	Core Highlights
Zijin Mining	+10.33%	+55.45%	Increased gold production, resource expansion[2]
Zhongjin Gold	-	+54.64%	Cost reduction and efficiency improvement, Shaling Gold Mine to be put into production soon[3]
Zhaojin Mining	+119.51%	+191.2%	Rapid production release[2]

According to industry forecasts[3]:

• 2024: The gold production of 5 core A-share gold mining enterprises was approximately
  92.27 tonnes
  (+7.32%)
• 2025: Expected to reach
  108.30 tonnes
  (+17.37%)
• 2026: Expected to reach
  122.30 tonnes
  (+12.93%)

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The current investment logic for the gold sector is clear:

1. Commodity Bull Market Transmitting to Equity Bull Market
   • Commodity prices are at high levels, but related stock valuations have not fully reflected the sustainability of earnings improvements
   • If commodity prices remain strong, profit realization may drive systemic valuation increases[3]

2. Value Reassessment of Resource Enterprises
   • Growing concerns about global supply chain stability
   • Companies with resources or overseas equity mines will be awarded a higher premium for their resource security capabilities[3]

3. Diversified Allocation of ‘Gold + Copper + Rare Earths’
   • The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index tracked by the Mining ETF (561330) covers multiple metals[1]
   • The top 10 constituent stocks account for 55.82%, showing a prominent leading enterprise effect

Based on the above analysis, it is recommended to adopt a

:

Strategy	Allocation Weight	Recommended Targets
Overweight Leading Stocks	35%	Newmont (NEM), Zijin Mining (resource leaders)
Balanced Allocation of ETFs	30%	Mining ETF (561330), Gold ETFs
Focus on Production Expansion Targets	25%	Zhongjin Gold (Shaling Gold Mine), Zhaojin Mining (Offshore Gold Mine)
Beware of Valuation Risks	10%	Moderately reduce positions in overvalued targets

[0]

• The world’s largest gold producer, with a market capitalization of $124.5 billion
• 2025 stock price increase of
  +169.47%
  , showing strong performance
• Net profit margin of
  33.82%
  , ROE of
  22.72%
• Raymond James raised its target price to
  $111
  (from $99)[4]
• Rating:
  Buy

[0]

• Stock price increase of
  +52.57%
  over the past year
• Current PE valuation of 139.93x is high, caution is advised
• Recently acquired Monex to expand business[4]
• Rating:
  Hold

[0][3]

• Current price of ¥27.56, PE of 30.21x
• Technically showing an
  upward trend
  , with a resistance level of ¥27.66 and the next target of ¥28.71[0]
• Highlight: Shaling Gold Mine is expected to be put into production in 2026[3]
• Rating:
  Buy

[2]

• Net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025 was
  RMB 37.864 billion
  , with a year-on-year growth of +55.45%
• Added
  88.8 tonnes
  of attributable gold resources
• Plans to achieve an annual gold production of
  100-110 tonnes
  by 2028
• Rating:
  Buy

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Risk Type	Specific Performance	Impact Level
Fluctuating Macro Expectations	Fed interest rate cut pace falls short of expectations	Medium-High
Gold Price Pullback Risk	Fading safe-haven sentiment	Medium
Valuation Bubble	Current valuations have already priced in some optimistic expectations	Medium
Production Falling Short of Expectations	Delayed mine commissioning	Medium-Low
Changing Geopolitical Risks	Eased situation leads to declining safe-haven demand	Low

According to technical analysis[0]:

• Newmont (NEM)
  : KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone (K:88.8, D:87.7), RSI signals overbought risk
• Zhongjin Gold
  : Also in the overbought zone, short-term pullback risk should be watched

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Institution	2026 Gold Price Forecast	Core View
JPMorgan	$5,000	Bullish on gold for the fourth consecutive year, listed as a preferred long position[2]
CICC	$4,800-5,000	The inflection point of cyclical investment demand for precious metals has not yet arrived[2]
Guotai Haitong	-	Gold allocation value stands out amid the ‘de-dollarization’ trend[2]
Everbright Futures	-	The pricing logic of precious metals is undergoing profound changes[2]

1. Gold Theme
   : Value reassessment driven by rising gold price center
2. Production Expansion Theme
   : Volume and price growth driven by capacity release
3. Resource M&A Theme
   : Valuation increase driven by resource expansion
4. Valuation Recovery Theme
   : Recovery from the current 11-15x to the historical average of 20x

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Gold prices have broken through $4,700/oz to hit a new all-time high, marking the entry of the precious metal market into a new bull market cycle. Against this backdrop, gold mining stocks exhibit the following characteristics:

1. Attractive Valuations
   : Current PE is around 11-15x, significantly lower than the historical average of 20x, with approximately 67% upside for valuation recovery

2. Earnings Elasticity Released
   : Rising gold prices combined with production expansion bring the ‘Davis Double Play’ to gold enterprises

3. Institutional Bullish Sentiment Continues
   : Mainstream institutions such as JPMorgan and CICC predict that gold prices will approach $5,000 in 2026

4. Investment Strategy Recommendations
   :
   • Core Allocation
     : Resource leaders such as Newmont and Zijin Mining
   • Diversified Allocation
     : Achieve exposure to multiple metals through the Mining ETF (561330)
   • Focus on Incremental Opportunities
     : Targets with production expansion expectations such as Zhongjin Gold and Zhaojin Mining

: Under the premise of position control, it is recommended that investors to share the excess returns brought by the gold price bull market. At the same time, close attention should be paid to the Fed’s policy direction, geopolitical changes, and short-term gold price fluctuation risks.

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[1] National Business Daily - “COMEX Gold Breaks $4,600 to Hit New High, Mining ETF (561330) Rises Over 3%” (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-01-13/4217905.html)

[2] Xinhua Finance - “How Far Can the Precious Metal Bull Market Go in 2026?” (https://news.mysteel.com/a/25122609/8CCFDD237B570319.html)

[3] East Money - “Strong Gold Prices Highlight Allocation Value of Gold Stocks” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202503181644489071_1.pdf)

[4] Yahoo Finance - “Raymond James Touts Newmont Corporation (NEM) Low-Risk Gold Business Model” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/raymond-james-touts-newmont-corporation-181435630.html)

[5] Jinling AI Market Data API - Corporate financial data, valuation indicators, technical analysis results [0]

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Report Generation Date: January 20, 2026
Data Sources: Jinling AI Financial Database, Wall Street Brokerage Research Reports, Listed Company Announcements
Disclaimer: This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, and caution is required when entering the market.