In-Depth Analysis Report on Spot Gold Hitting a Record High

I will now present a comprehensive and systematic analysis report on the gold market.

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Spot gold prices broke through

on January 14, 2026, setting a new all-time high[1]. Starting from approximately $2,640 per ounce at the beginning of 2025, the cumulative increase for the full year exceeded 75%, making it one of the strongest performing years in decades[2].

Indicator	Data
Price at the start of 2025	~$2,640/oz
All-time high	$4,691.57/oz
Cumulative increase	75.72%
Latest price (Jan 20)	~$4,652/oz
Current price percentile	96.9% (in the historical high range)

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The

is the core driver of this gold bull market. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025, reducing the federal funds rate target range by a total of 75 basis points[3].

• December Core CPI Data
  shows that the U.S. core inflation rate came in at 3.1%, lower than the market expectation of 3.3%, marking the 6th consecutive month of decline[1]
• Market expectations for the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March 2026 surged from 58% before the data release to
  78%
  [1]
• Interest rate futures show that investors are betting on
  2-3 rate cuts
  in 2026, far exceeding the 1 cut indicated by the dot plot[2]

: As a non-interest-bearing asset, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Coupled with the weakening U.S. dollar (the U.S. Dollar Index fell from 108.5 at the start of the year to 98.3, a 9.4% depreciation), this directly boosted gold prices denominated in U.S. dollars[3].

Geopolitical tensions have become an important support for gold’s safe-haven demand[1][2][4]:

Risk Event	Impact Analysis
Middle East Situation	Tough warnings from Iran and instability in the Red Sea shipping channel continue to disrupt global supply chains
Eastern Europe Standoff	The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains deadlocked, exacerbating volatility in the energy market
Venezuela Situation	Threat of U.S. military intervention raises regional risks
China-U.S. Relations	Uncertainties from trade frictions and strategic competition

UBS Group pointed out that the current geopolitical pattern is characterized by “

”, which is fundamentally different from the local conflicts in the 2010s, and investors are facing a more complex risk environment[1].

Central banks around the world increasing their gold holdings have become a

for gold prices[3][5]:

• 43% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings
  , and 95% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to rise[5]
• The “de-dollarization” trend of global reserve assets is accelerating, and gold has surpassed U.S. Treasuries to become the largest reserve asset of global central banks[3]
• Emerging market central banks continued net gold purchases in 2025, with countries such as China, India, and Russia continuing to optimize their foreign exchange reserve structures

: The U.S. debt scale exceeded for the first time in October 2025, accounting for 125% of GDP. The huge debt and high interest rate environment have exacerbated countries’ concerns about the safety of U.S. dollar assets[3].

have become a new source of risk premium[2][4]:

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing a criminal investigation, and the market is concerned that he may leave office early
• If Powell leaves office early, a dovish successor may accelerate the interest rate cut process
• Donald Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve, and concerns about political interference are eroding market confidence

The World Bank lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.4%, warning that “major economies may face the risk of synchronized slowdown”[1]:

• Adjustments in China’s real estate market continue
• Growing pains of Europe’s energy transition
• Rising debt pressures in emerging markets

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Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
MA (20-day)	$4,629.29	Short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement
MA (50-day)	$4,560.29	Mid-term uptrend remains intact
MA (200-day)	$3,865.62	Long-term moving average provides strong support
RSI (14)	53.96	In a neutral to bullish zone, no overbought signal
MACD	35.51	Bullish signal, strong momentum
20-day Volatility	1.43%	Moderate volatility

1. Price Position
   : Currently at the
   96.9th percentile
   of the year’s highs, with a cumulative increase of 75.74% from the low point
2. Moving Average System
   : All major moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the uptrend remains unchanged
3. RSI Analysis
   : The RSI is around 54, not entering the overbought zone (above 70), and technically has upward momentum remaining
4. MACD Indicator
   : The MACD is above the signal line, maintaining a bullish pattern

Type	Price Level	Description
Resistance Level	$4,650 / $4,800	Short-term technical resistance
Support Level	$4,580 / $4,500	Important support range
Strong Support	$4,000	Psychological level and trend line support

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Institution	2026 Gold Price Forecast	Core Logic
Morgan Stanley	Targeting $4,800	Supported by macro environment
DBS Bank	Testing $5,100 in the second half	Long-term bullish outlook
HSBC	Hitting $5,000 in the first half	Seasonal factors + safe-haven demand
Citibank	Testing $4,700	Sufficient short-term momentum
CICC (China International Capital Corporation)	This cycle will last 12-18 months	Cycle rules of monetary policy shift

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Investment Product	Suitable Crowd	Suggested Allocation Ratio	Risk Level
Physical Gold Bars	Conservative investors / those with capital preservation needs	5%-10%	Low
Bank Accumulated Gold	Stable investors	5%-15%	Low
Gold ETFs	Aggressive investors	5%-15%	Medium
Gold Mining Stocks	High-risk preference investors	3%-8%	High

Strategy	Applicable Scenario	Operation Suggestion
Dollar-Cost Averaging	High-level volatile market	Adopt a fixed-investment strategy to smooth out costs
Buy on Pullbacks	Technical pullbacks	Deploy positions when gold prices pull back to near the 50-day MA
Volatility Trading	High-volatility market	Focus on operations within the $4,500-$4,800 range

• Core Strategy
  : Focus on physical gold + accumulated gold
• Allocation Ratio
  : 8%-12% of total assets
• Operation Method
  : Focus on fixed investment, do not chase rallies or sell on dips
• Risk Warning
  : Pay attention to liquidity; physical gold has a discount when cashed out

• Core Strategy
  : Gold ETFs + paper gold portfolio
• Allocation Ratio
  : 10%-15% of total assets
• Operation Method
  : Core holdings + satellite trading (20% position for flexible operations)
• Tool Selection
  : Huaan Gold ETF (518880), E Fund Gold ETF (159934)

• Core Strategy
  : Gold ETFs + gold mining stocks + leveraged products
• Allocation Ratio
  : Up to 15%-20%
• Operation Method
  : Trend tracking + swing trading
• Focus Targets
  : Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), Zhaojin Mining (1818.HK)

Silver has performed strongly recently, outperforming gold[1]:

• Spot silver surged
  3.11% to $89.62 per ounce
  on January 14, briefly hitting an all-time high of $89.98
• Logic behind silver price rise:
  Resonance of industrial and financial attributes
  (AI boom, photovoltaic demand, green energy transition)

:

• Silver has higher volatility than gold, suitable for
  aggressive investors
• Pay attention to changes in the
  gold-silver ratio
  (currently around 52:1, historical average around 65:1)
• Can deploy via silver ETFs (silver fund under Hua Yancy Oil & Gas) or mining stocks

Risk Type	Hedging Method
U.S. Dollar Rebound	Allocate part of U.S. dollar assets for hedging
Inflation Resurgence	Gold naturally hedges against inflation
Geopolitical Detente	Reduce gold exposure and increase allocation to risk assets
Liquidity Risk	Hold paper gold/ETFs instead of physical gold

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1. Fluctuating Inflation Data
   : If inflation rebounds, it may change the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path[6]
2. Geopolitical Detente
   : Eased tensions will weaken gold’s safe-haven demand
3. Technical Correction
   : A correction may occur after a short-term sharp rise
4. U.S. Dollar Rebound
   : Strong U.S. economic data may support a stronger dollar
5. Policy Expectation Reversal
   : If the Federal Reserve suspends rate cuts or releases hawkish signals

• Position Control
  : Gold allocation should not exceed 20% of the investment portfolio
• Stop-Loss Setting
  : Set a 5%-8% stop-loss line for technical corrections
• Diversified Investment
  : Form a hedging portfolio with risk assets such as stocks and bonds
• Dynamic Management
  : Closely monitor Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, CPI data, and changes in geopolitical situations

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1. Bull Market Foundation Remains Intact
   : The three pillars of support—Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchase demand—remain solid
2. Short-Term Volatility Possible
   : Some investors take profits after the record high, and there is a risk of technical correction
3. Long-Term Bullish Outlook
   : Multiple institutions predict that gold prices are expected to test the $4,800-$5,100 range

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Gold Allocation Strategy              │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Strategic Allocation (Core): Gold ETFs/Accumulated Gold 10%-15% │
│  Tactical Allocation (Satellite): Flexible adjustment, seize buying opportunities on pullbacks │
│  Risk Hedging: Form a hedging portfolio with risk assets │
│  Dynamic Management: Track Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical situations │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Variable	Impact Direction	Focus Time Point
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meetings	Rate cut → bullish for gold	January, March, May
U.S. CPI Data	Below expectations → bullish for gold	Mid-month each month
Geopolitical Events	Conflict escalation → bullish for gold	Real-time tracking
U.S. Dollar Index Trend	Dollar decline → gold rise	Continuous monitoring

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[1] Huanan Financial Network - “Comprehensive Analysis of the Precious Metals Market on January 14, 2026: Multiple Positive Factors Resonate to Push Gold and Silver Prices to New All-Time Highs” (https://www.huanancj.com/invest/hj/2026/0114/24673.html)

[2] CNFOOL - “Gold Trend Analysis on January 19, 2026: Volatility After Record High, Multi-Dimensional Support Sustains Uptrend” (http://gold.cnfol.com/jinshizhibo/20260119/31952434.shtml)

[3] China.com/Workers’ Daily - “Why Are Global Central Banks ‘Snapping Up’ Gold? Driven by Safe-Haven Demand and Reserve Diversification” (https://news.china.com/socialgd/10000169/20260119/49175893.html)

[4] Sina Finance - “Gold Trading Alert: Uncertainty Shrouds the Globe, Gold and Silver Continue to Hit New All-Time Highs” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/hbfx/2026-01-15/doc-inhhiurv4388471.shtml)

[5] Xinhua Daily News/ATFX - “2026 Q1 Trading Magazine Analyzes the Secrets Behind the Surge in Gold Prices” (https://www.xhby.net/content/s696a1b18e4b093d9f5c77c71.html)

[6] China News Service/Guo Shi Zhi Tong Che - “Spot Gold Hits Another Record High, How Long Can the Bull Market Last?” (https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gsztc/2026/01-15/10552274.shtml)

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Report Generation Time: January 20, 2026
Data Sources: Gilin AI Financial Database, Wall Street Broker APIs, Public Market Information