Gree Electric (000651.SZ) Hot Stock Analysis Report - Dual Catalysts of Dividend Season and Semiconductor Transformation

Gree Electric made it to the hot stock list on January 20, 2026, with a significant rise in market attention. According to analysis, the core driving factors for this surge in popularity can be summarized as

[0]:

On January 20, Feng Yin, Assistant to the President of Gree Electric, revealed at the Greater Bay Area Compound Semiconductor Ecological Application Conference that after completing mass production of silicon carbide chips for home appliances, Gree Electric’s silicon carbide chip factory will also achieve mass production of silicon carbide chips for photovoltaic energy storage and logistics vehicles in 2026[1]. Earlier, during a meeting with Feng Xingya, Chairman of GAC Group, Dong Mingzhu stated that half of GAC’s automotive chips will be replaced by Gree products in the future[1]. This progress marks a substantive breakthrough in Gree’s expansion from a traditional home appliance enterprise to the semiconductor sector, providing significant growth imagination space for the market.

On the evening of January 15, Gree Electric released the “2025 Interim Equity Distribution Implementation Announcement”, proposing to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 10 per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders based on a total of 5.585 billion shares, with a total cash dividend of RMB 5.585 billion[2][3]. The record date is January 22, 2026, and the ex-dividend/ex-rights date is January 23, 2026. Calculated based on the current stock price, the dividend yield for this distribution is approximately 7%-8%, which is a high level in the A-share market. Although this dividend amount is the lowest in recent years, Gree has still maintained its high-dividend tradition, which is highly attractive to investors pursuing stable cash returns[2][3].

On January 5, Gree Electric announced via its official WeChat public account that it will actively respond to the 2026 home appliance national subsidy policy and committed to no price hikes for Gree household air conditioners[4]. At the same time, the company clearly stated that it has no plans related to “replacing copper with aluminum” and will adhere to all-copper components. Against the backdrop of copper prices exceeding USD 10,000 per ton, Gree’s price maintenance against the trend not only enhances its brand image but also avoids the cost pressure of providing universal subsidies to dealers after taking the initiative to cut prices, which is regarded by the industry as the optimal strategy of “both protecting profits and seizing market share”[4].

As of the close on January 20, 2026, Gree Electric’s stock price closed at RMB 41.28, with a daily increase of +1.85%[0]. From different time dimensions:

• 5-day increase: +2.69%
• 1-month increase: +0.34%
• 6-month increase: -13.78%
• 1-year increase: -8.43%

The stock price is currently consolidating in a range near the 20-day moving average (RMB 40.60) and 50-day moving average (RMB 40.62). The 200-day moving average (RMB 43.49) forms a clear upper resistance level, while the 52-week low (RMB 39.20) forms an important support level[0].

The trading volume on the day reached 90.64 million shares, a 140% surge compared to the historical average of 37.76 million shares, indicating a significant increase in market participation[0]. A surge in trading volume usually indicates attention from incremental capital. Against the backdrop of the upcoming dividend distribution, some investors may choose to build positions in advance to obtain dividend entitlements.

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price is currently in a range-bound consolidation pattern with upper resistance (200-day moving average at RMB 43.49) and lower support (52-week low at RMB 39.20). In the short term, it shows a volume-driven rebound trend, but attention should be paid to the “right-filling” performance of the stock price after the ex-dividend/ex-rights date[0].

Gree Electric’s current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is only 7.19x, significantly lower than the industry average, and its valuation is in a historic low range[0]. The low valuation level provides a certain margin of safety for value investors, but it also reflects the market’s cautious expectations for the company’s future growth.

The company’s profitability indicators are robust:

• Return on Equity (ROE): 22.62%, at an excellent level
• Net Profit Margin: 17.62%, maintained at a high level
• Gross Profit Margin: 28.50%, remaining stable

These indicators show that despite facing revenue growth pressure, the company’s asset profit-generating capacity and profit efficiency remain at a high level[0].

Gree Electric’s financial structure is extremely robust:

• No interest-bearing liabilities
  : Short-term borrowings, long-term borrowings, and bonds payable are all zero
• Monetary fund reserves
  : Over RMB 130 billion, accounting for approximately 35% of total assets
• Operating cash flow
  : Net amount of RMB 45.73 billion, a 259.71% YoY surge

The abundant cash reserves and zero interest-bearing liability financial structure enable the company to have strong risk resistance during periods of industry downturn, and also provide solid support for its high-dividend policy[5].

Based on data from the first three quarters of 2025, Gree Electric’s business structure is as follows:

• Air conditioning business: Accounts for approximately 78% of revenue, still the core cash flow source
• Industrial products and green energy: Accounts for approximately 9%, expected to become the second growth curve
• Intelligent equipment: Accounts for approximately 0.2%, still in the cultivation stage
• Other businesses: Accounts for approximately 13%, in the process of adjustment and optimization

The air conditioning business still accounts for as high as 78% of revenue, indicating that the company is highly dependent on a single core business, and its diversified businesses have not yet formed effective support[0].

In the first three quarters of 2025, Gree Electric’s cumulative revenue was RMB 137.18 billion, a 6.5% YoY decline. Among them, the single-quarter revenue in Q3 was RMB 39.855 billion, a significant 15.09% YoY decline, indicating significant pressure on revenue growth[5]. The underperformance is also reflected in the stock price performance: the Q3 financial report shows earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.26, 12.5% lower than the market expectation of RMB 1.44[0].

In the air conditioning market, Gree is facing competitive pressure from two directions:

• Midea Group
  : Remains firmly in the top industry position with a stable market status
• Xiaomi Group
  : In July 2025, Xiaomi’s online sales market share of air conditioners reached 16.71%, surpassing Gree’s 15.22%, and its brand influence among young consumer groups continues to increase[5]

This change in the competitive pattern reflects Gree’s relative lag in brand rejuvenation and channel digitalization, as young consumers prefer internet brands such as Xiaomi[0].

Risk Type	Specific Content	Risk Level
Growth Stagnation	Consecutive revenue declines, lack of new growth drivers	Medium-High
Intensified Competition	Midea remains in first place, Xiaomi is catching up rapidly	Medium-High
Generational Shift	Young consumers shifting to internet brands	Medium
Diversification Uncertainty	New businesses such as Gree Titanium and semiconductors are not yet mature	Medium
Dividend Sustainability	This dividend amount is the lowest in recent years	Medium-Low
Raw Material Costs	High copper prices squeeze profit margins	Low (Committed to no price hikes)

Previously, there were rumors in the market that Gree might adopt “copper replacement with aluminum” materials. The company has clearly denied this, stating that it will adhere to all-copper components[4]. While this position is beneficial for maintaining the brand’s quality image, it may also bring certain pressure to cost control against the backdrop of continuously high copper prices.

From a valuation perspective, Gree Electric has the following attractions:

1. Low Valuation
   : A P/E ratio of 7.19x, significantly lower than the historical average and industry average
2. High Dividend
   : A dividend yield of 7%-8% has allocation value in the current low-interest rate environment
3. High Margin of Safety
   : Over RMB 130 billion in cash on hand and no interest-bearing liabilities, with a robust financial structure

The company is transforming from a “growth stock” to a “bond-like” asset, and high dividends have become one of its core attractions[0][5].

Price Type	Price	Description
Strong Support Level	RMB 39.20	52-week low
Immediate Support Level	RMB 40.00	Integer level and moving average crossover area
Immediate Resistance Level	RMB 43.49	200-day moving average position
Key Resistance Level	RMB 45.00	Integer level and upper edge of previous platform

Scenario	Trigger Condition	Expected Trend
Optimistic	Large orders for silicon carbide chips + National subsidy policy exceeds expectations	Break upward through RMB 43.49, opening up upside space
Neutral	Smooth implementation of dividend + Performance stabilizes	Consolidates in the range of RMB 39-44
Pessimistic	Q1 financial report continues to deteriorate + Market share accelerates to decline	Tests the support level at RMB 39.20 downward

1. January 22, 2026
   - Record Date
2. January 23, 2026
   - Ex-dividend/Ex-rights Date, pay attention to the “right-filling” market performance
3. April 27, 2026
   - Release of Q1 2026 financial report
4. 2026 Home Appliance National Subsidy Policy
   specific implementation progress
5. Silicon Carbide Chips
   mass production progress and order status from customers such as GAC

The core logic behind Gree Electric becoming a hot stock is the

. From an investment value perspective, the company currently has the following characteristics:

• Valuation is at a historic low, with a high margin of safety
• A dividend yield of 7%-8% has allocation value in a low-interest rate environment
• Extremely robust financial structure, no interest-bearing liabilities, and abundant cash reserves
• Silicon carbide chip business provides long-term growth imagination space

• Consecutive revenue declines, insufficient growth momentum
• Market share being squeezed by both Midea and Xiaomi
• Brand aging risk, loss of young consumers
• Diversified businesses have not yet formed effective support

Gree Electric is transforming from a traditional air conditioning leader to extending into the semiconductor sector, but this transformation is still in the initial stage and will be difficult to contribute significant performance in the short term. The company is currently more suitable to be positioned as a rather than a growth stock. For investors pursuing stable cash returns, the 7x valuation combined with a 7%-8% dividend yield has certain allocation value; for investors betting on the silicon carbide concept, close attention should be paid to business progress and risk management should be well established[0][1][2][3][4][5].

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: This report is compiled and analyzed based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance and investment objectives, combined with the latest market information.