Analysis of Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ) - A Hot Stock: Blue Arrow Aerospace IPO Catalyst Triggers Severe Share Price Volatility

The

behind Goldwind Science & Technology’s popularity is that the STAR Market IPO application of Blue Arrow Aerospace Space Technology Co., Ltd., a commercial rocket company in which it holds a stake, was accepted on December 31, 2025, with a planned fundraising of RMB 7.5 billion[1][2]. Goldwind Science & Technology holds a in Blue Arrow Aerospace through its wholly-owned subsidiary Jianghan Assets, making it the sixth-largest shareholder, with an unrealized book profit of over (calculated based on an investment cost of RMB 150 million)[3][4]. Blue Arrow Aerospace took only about 5 months from filing to completing tutoring, setting a STAR Market record for speed[5].

However, investors need to clearly recognize that Goldwind Science & Technology is essentially a

, not an aerospace enterprise. Blue Arrow Aerospace is only its financial investment project, contributing minimally to the company’s main business revenue. The current share price volatility is mainly driven by IPO expectations, which is typical concept speculation.

Goldwind Science & Technology has experienced extreme price volatility:

Phase	Time Period	Share Price Change	Market Cap Change
Surge Phase	January 5-12	Consecutive limit-ups, rising from approx. RMB 20 to RMB 37	Market cap surged by RMB 60 billion in 9 trading days[6]
Plunge Phase	January 15-16	Consecutive limit-downs	Retreated to RMB 114.2 billion[7]
Current	January 20	RMB 26.06 (-5.92%)	RMB 110.02 billion

From a technical perspective, the current MACD shows a bearish death cross signal, KDJ is in a bearish zone, and the share price is consolidating around the 20-day moving average (¥24.95), with a reference trading range of

[0]. The short-term trend is still unclear, and we need to wait for a directional choice.

According to the Dragon and Tiger List data, the characteristics of capital gaming are obvious[8]:

• Hot Money Driving
  : Chen Xiaoqun, a new-generation hot money investor, bought
  RMB 430 million in a single day
  on January 11, driving consecutive limit-ups
• Institutional Share Sell-Offs
  : Shareholders such as Zhang Mengzhu and Hexie Health have
  cumulatively sold shares for over RMB 1.4 billion in cash
  [9]
• Capital Divergence
  : Orient Securities Shanghai Pudong New Area Yincheng Middle Road branch had a net purchase of RMB 101 million[8]

Trading volume data confirms the intensity of capital gaming: the recent average daily trading volume reaches 454 million shares,

the average level (231 million shares), with a transaction volume of up to RMB 18.598 billion and a turnover rate of 21.15%[0]. A high turnover rate usually means a rapid rise in holding costs, increasing subsequent selling pressure.

On January 13, the

co-developed by Goldwind Science & Technology and China Three Gorges Corporation was successfully hoisted in the waters of Fujian, setting a new global record[9]:

• The impeller diameter reaches 300 meters, with a swept area of over 70,000 square meters
• The annual power generation is expected to exceed 80 million kWh
• It is estimated to reduce the project’s levelized cost of energy by 5-8%

. Institutions believe that technological implementation requires supporting energy storage and power grid transformation, and it is difficult to contribute substantial performance in the short term. This phenomenon reflects that the current share price is mainly driven by concept speculation, rather than fundamental improvement.

Goldwind Science & Technology’s main businesses include wind turbine manufacturing, wind power services, and wind farm investment and development. Its financial indicators show[0][9]:

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
P/E (TTM)	41.09x	Significantly higher than the industry average
ROE	6.81%	Average
Net Profit Margin	3.84%	Relatively low

: The bidding volume of the domestic wind power industry decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, price wars continue (the gross profit margin of second- and third-tier enterprises has fallen below 10%), steel costs have risen by over 30%, and capacity utilization is less than 70%. More severely, the VAT refund for onshore wind power was canceled starting from November 2025, which will further compress profit margins.

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: The current P/E ratio of 41.09x is significantly higher than the industry average, and the share price has already discounted 2026 performance. Although 2025 Q3 EPS exceeded expectations by 45.99%, short-term performance is difficult to support the current valuation level.

: It still takes time for Blue Arrow Aerospace’s IPO from acceptance to official listing, and concept speculation has obvious timeliness. Once IPO expectations are fulfilled or hindered, the share price may face pressure of value regression.

: On the evening of January 12, multiple commercial aerospace concept stocks collectively released risk warning announcements, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued regulatory warnings to Hangxiao Steel Structure and China Electronics Technology Group Digital Technology, directly pointing out issues related to information disclosure of commercial aerospace[10][11]. The regulator’s intention to cool down speculation is obvious, and investors need to pay attention to subsequent policy risks.

: The large-scale entry of new-generation hot money investor Chen Xiaoqun is in sharp contrast to the profit-taking sell-offs by institutions such as Zhang Mengzhu, showing professional investors’ cautious attitude towards concept speculation.

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Risk Type	Specific Content	Risk Level
Valuation Bubble Risk	P/E of 41x is significantly higher than the industry average, and the share price has discounted 2026 performance	🔴 High
Concept Speculation Risk	The proportion of commercial aerospace business is extremely low, and the share price is seriously deviated from fundamentals	🔴 High
Liquidity Break Risk	Holding costs rise after high turnover rate, increasing subsequent selling pressure	🟠 Medium-High
Regulatory Risk	Multiple companies have received regulatory warnings due to concept speculation	🟠 Medium-High
Hot Money Exit Risk	Institutions have cumulatively sold over RMB 1.4 billion in shares	🟠 Medium-High

• Long-Term Technological Value
  : If the technological breakthrough of the 20MW offshore wind turbine can be successfully commercialized, it is expected to improve profitability in the long term
• Overseas Business Support
  : The company’s overseas business accounts for about 30%, which can diversify domestic policy risks
• Hydrogen Energy Layout
  : If substantial progress is made in the hydrogen energy business, it may provide a new valuation anchor

The progress of Blue Arrow Aerospace’s IPO will be a key catalyst for short-term share prices. If the IPO progresses smoothly, it may trigger a new round of speculation; if it is hindered or delayed, the concept support will weaken. At the same time, attention should be paid to the possible sentiment recovery opportunity in early February, but the risk-reward ratio needs to be carefully evaluated.

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The core reason why Goldwind Science & Technology has made it to the hot list is the

, coupled with severe share price volatility that has attracted market attention. The current stock has the following characteristics:

1. Price Position
   : The current price is RMB 26.06, down about 30% from the January high of RMB 37, and it is in the middle-upper range of the 52-week interval (¥7.64-¥37.03)
2. Technical Status
   : MACD death cross, KDJ bearish, short-term trend unclear
3. Capital Side
   : Intense gaming between hot money and institutions, with abnormally enlarged trading volume
4. Valuation Level
   : PE of 41x is significantly high, with risks outweighing opportunities
5. Regulatory Environment
   : Regulators have cooled down concept speculation, and policy risks need to be wary of

: The current share price is mainly driven by concept speculation, deviating from the fundamentals of the core wind power business. For risk-averse investors, it is recommended to avoid it; for aggressive traders, if the share price pulls back to the support level (around ¥24.87), they can take a small position to bet on a rebound, but strict stop-loss is required. Concept speculation has timeliness, so it is essential to distinguish the correlation between the investment target and the actual business.

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1. Approval Progress of Blue Arrow Aerospace’s IPO
   - Key to the sustainability of the concept
2. Changes in Bidding Volume of the Wind Power Industry
   - Leading indicator of core business prosperity
3. Subsequent Attitude of Regulators
   - Intensity of cooling down concept speculation
4. Trading Volume Shrinkage
   - Judging whether the speculation cycle is over