Analysis of Baiyin Nonferrous (601212.SH) – A Hot Stock: Driving Factors and Risk Assessment Behind Its 8-Year High Limit-Up

On January 20, 2026, Baiyin Nonferrous (601212.SH) strongly made it to the A-Share hot list, hitting the daily limit in the afternoon, and finally closed up 10.03% at RMB 7.79, an 8-year high, with a single-day increase of RMB 0.71 [1]. Its total market capitalization reached RMB 57.683 billion on the day, and the stock price has broken through the 52-week high of RMB 7.79, with a cumulative increase of over 218% compared to the 52-week low of RMB 2.45 [1].

From the perspective of direct triggers, the core topic widely discussed in the market on that day was the explosive growth of industrial demand for silver. In 2026, the installed capacity of the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase by 25%, the silver usage in AI servers is 3x that of regular servers, and the proportion of industrial demand for silver has exceeded 50% [1]. Meanwhile, international silver prices hit a record high of US$86.22/oz, gold prices broke through US$4,600/oz, and domestic spot silver prices led the gains in the nonferrous metal sector [4]. The resonance of multiple positive factors directly drove the limit-up performance of Baiyin Nonferrous’s stock price.

The company has continuously released important announcements recently, sending signals of positive business expansion. In November 2025, the company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Gansu Honglu Gold Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of up to RMB 1.5 billion, marking the company’s strategic transformation from a single silver business to a full industrial chain layout of precious metals [2]. On January 12, 2026, the company disclosed an announcement of increasing capital to its wholly-owned subsidiary; on January 16, it further released an announcement of a proposed capital increase of RMB 240 million and an additional guarantee of RMB 150 million [1][3].

From the perspective of production capacity data, the company’s annual silver production capacity reaches 1,000 tons, with silver sales of 419.1 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.69% [5]. The “Honglu” brand silver ingots have been registered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) and have international brand qualifications [5]. These fundamental factors provide certain support for the stock price increase, but it should be noted that the company is still in a loss-making state, with a net loss in the first three quarters of 2025 [3].

Capital flow data shows that institutions have significantly increased their positions in the nonferrous metal sector. In the list of institutional position increases in January 2026, the nonferrous metal sector ranks first, with a position increase rate of 3.13% [1]. From the perspective of specific capital flows, data from East Money shows that the net inflow of extra-large orders is RMB 180.6 million, the net inflow of large orders is RMB 423.8 million, and the main capital shows a clear net inflow status [3].

The margin purchase amount reached RMB 250 million, indicating high market trading activity [2]. The change in the number of shareholders also reflects the increase in market attention, rising from 129,900 in June 2025 to 180,700 in September, a growth rate of 39.13% [3]. However, the increasing dispersion of shareholding may bring subsequent selling pressure risks.

This round of Baiyin Nonferrous’s price increase is not only driven by short-term sentiment, but also reflects the in-depth changes in the supply and demand structure of the precious metals market. Traditionally, silver is regarded as a safe-haven asset and jewelry raw material, but currently, the proportion of industrial demand for silver has exceeded 50%, and two emerging sectors, photovoltaic and AI, are reshaping the demand pattern of silver. The demand for silver paste in the photovoltaic industry expands with the growth of installed capacity, and the special requirements of AI servers for silver’s heat dissipation and conductivity make its silver usage 3x that of traditional servers. This structural demand growth provides stronger industrial attribute support for silver prices than gold.

The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the strong performance of precious metal prices form a macro-level synergy. International silver prices broke through US$86/oz to hit a record high, and gold prices strengthened simultaneously, providing a favorable external pricing environment for domestic silver-related stocks [4].

It should be heeded that there is a clear divergence between the current stock price performance and fundamentals. The company’s trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is as high as 327.31x, which is in a historically high range [1]. From the perspective of financial data, the company was still in a loss-making state in the first three quarters of 2025. Although total revenue reached RMB 72.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, net profit was -RMB 214.9 million, and gross margin was only 5.67% [3]. This means that the current stock price may have fully or even excessively reflected optimistic expectations, and once silver prices pull back or market sentiment shifts, it will face significant correction pressure.

The establishment of Gansu Honglu Gold Co., Ltd. is a key step in the company’s strategic transformation. The scale of RMB 1.5 billion registered capital shows the company’s emphasis on the gold business, and the business synergy between gold and silver is expected to enhance the company’s comprehensive competitiveness in the precious metals sector. However, the operational effect of the newly established subsidiary needs time to be verified, and it is difficult to be reflected in performance in the short term. Investors need to pay attention to the subsequent business integration progress and the pace of production capacity release.

: The current P/E ratio of 327x significantly deviates from the historical average, and the stock price has increased by over 218% from the low of RMB 2.45 to the high of RMB 7.79, so there may be a need for a technical correction after excessive gains in the short term [1].

: Despite the strong stock price performance, the company’s fundamentals have not improved synchronously. The net profit was negative in the first three quarters of 2025, and the asset-liability ratio is at a high level of 65.91% [3]. Performance pressure will limit the long-term upward space of the stock price.

: As a nonferrous metal enterprise, the company’s profitability is highly correlated with silver prices. If international silver prices pull back due to macroeconomic factors, it will directly affect the company’s revenue and profit levels.

: The number of shareholders increased from 129,900 to 180,700, a growth rate of 39.13% [3]. The increasing dispersion of shareholding may increase subsequent selling pressure, especially when the stock price corrects.

: The continuous expansion of the photovoltaic and AI sectors will provide long-term growth momentum for silver demand, and the company, as a leading silver enterprise with an annual production capacity of 1,000 tons, is expected to fully benefit [5].

: The nonferrous metal sector ranks first in the list of institutional position increases, with a growth rate of 3.13% [1]. Continuous capital support is expected to provide periodic momentum for the stock price.

: International silver prices hit a record high, and gold prices strengthened simultaneously. The precious metals sector as a whole is in a bull market cycle, and the sector linkage effect is expected to continue.

: The establishment of Gansu Honglu Gold Co., Ltd. marks a strategic upgrade. If the gold business layout progresses smoothly, it may open up new growth space.

Baiyin Nonferrous (601212.SH) becoming a hot stock is the result of the resonance of multiple factors including industry trends, company actions, capital drive, and technical breakthroughs. On January 20, 2026, the stock price hit the daily limit and closed at RMB 7.79, an 8-year high, with a daily increase of 10.03% and a total market capitalization of RMB 57.683 billion [1]. The driving factors include the record high of international silver prices, the expected growth of industrial demand for silver (photovoltaic installation +25%, silver usage in AI servers is 3x), institutions significantly increasing their positions in the nonferrous metal sector (a growth rate of 3.13%), and positive business developments such as the company establishing a gold subsidiary with a registered capital of RMB 1.5 billion [1][2].

From a risk assessment perspective, the company’s currently overvalued status (P/E ratio of 327.31x), loss in the first three quarters, and shareholding dispersion issue after the sharp increase in the number of shareholders all need to be paid attention to [1][3]. There is a divergence between fundamentals and stock price performance, so the risk of chasing the high price is relatively high. If investors pay attention to this stock, they should focus on tracking the trend of silver prices, the operational progress of Gansu Honglu Gold Co., Ltd., changes in institutional capital flows, and layout opportunities after valuation regression.

: This report is compiled and analyzed based on public market information and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.