Kimberly Clark (KMB) Defensive Investment Valuation Report

Based on the comprehensive data analysis above, I will provide users with a systematic and detailed

.

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is a world-leading manufacturer of personal care and home care products, with well-known brands including Huggies, Kleenex, Scott, and Cottonelle. The company is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker KMB, with a current market capitalization of approximately , and is a core target in the consumer staples defensive sector [0].

Basic Information	Data
Stock Price (2026-01-20)	$100.49
Market Capitalization	$33.35 billion
P/E Ratio (TTM)	16.93x
P/B Ratio	25.03x
Dividend Yield	~5.1%
Beta Coefficient	0.28 (Extremely Low Volatility)
Industry	Home and Personal Care

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KMB’s stock price has experienced a significant pullback over the past year, showing negative returns across multiple time horizons:

Period	Performance
1 Month	-0.17%
3 Months	-16.76%
6 Months	-21.22%
1 Year	-20.59%
3 Years	-25.65%
5 Years	-23.53%

The current stock price ($100.49) is in the

($96.26 - $150.45), representing a decline of approximately from the 52-week high [0].

Valuation Metric	KMB	Industry Average	Assessment
P/E (TTM)	16.93x	~18-22x	Slightly Below Industry
P/S (TTM)	1.85x	~1.5-2x	Moderate
EV/OCF	15.24x	~12-16x	Near Reasonable

From an absolute valuation perspective, KMB’s current P/E ratio is approximately 17x, which is at the

of its historical valuation range (~15-25x), providing a certain margin of safety [0].

based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model show:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Upside vs Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$201.96	+101.0%
Base Scenario	$328.11	+226.5%
Optimistic Scenario	$956.88	+852.2%
Probability-Weighted Value	$495.65	+393.2%

• WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital): 5.7%
• Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0%-3.0%
• 5-Year Historical Average Revenue Growth Rate: 1.2%
• 5-Year Historical Average EBITDA Margin: 17.8%

DCF analysis indicates that the current stock price

the company’s intrinsic value, and the market may have overreacted to short-term operational pressures [0].

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Assessment Dimension	Rating	Key Findings
Financial Stance	Neutral	Balanced accounting policies, no extremely aggressive or conservative practices [0]
Revenue Structure	Stable	Q3 FY2025 revenue was $4.13B, representing 0.17% YoY growth [0]
Cash Flow	Good	Latest free cash flow is $2.513 billion, with strong cash flow generation capacity [0]
Profitability	Stable	Net profit margin of 10.9%, operating profit margin of 14.01% [0]
Debt Risk	High	Current ratio of 0.77, quick ratio of 0.56, debt-servicing capacity requires attention [0]

Profitability Metric	Level	Industry Positioning
ROE (Return on Equity)	1.73%	Below Average
Net Profit Margin	10.90%	Above Medium
Operating Profit Margin	14.01%	Stable

The low ROE is mainly due to the increase in book value caused by recent stock price declines, rather than deteriorating operating performance [0].

• Q3 FY2025 EPS
  : $1.82 (consensus $1.45),
  25.52% above expectations
• Q2 FY2025 EPS
  : $1.92 (consensus $1.67),
  14.97% above expectations
• Q1 FY2025 EPS
  : $1.93 (consensus $1.89),
  2.12% above expectations
• Q4 FY2024 EPS
  : $1.50 (consensus $1.51),
  0.66% slightly below expectations

The company has

, demonstrating strong earnings resilience [0].

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Technical Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
Current Price	$100.08	-
MA20	$99.68	Short-term moving average slightly below current price
MA50	$102.35	Medium-term moving average acts as resistance
MA200	$122.90	Long-term moving average is above, stock price is below the long-term trend line
RSI(14)	46.09	In neutral range (30-70), no overbought or oversold signals
MACD	-1.17	Slightly below the signal line (-1.53), weak momentum
Beta	0.28	Extremely low volatility, prominent defensive attributes

: KMB is currently in a trend with no clear breakout direction. Key support level is $99.20, key resistance level is $100.95. The stock price is approximately , placing it in a , but it is only about 4% away from the 52-week low ($96.26) [0].

Indicator	KMB	S&P 500
Beta	0.28	1.00
Annualized Volatility	~15-18%	~18-22%

KMB’s Beta coefficient is only 0.28, making it one of the

, which aligns with the typical characteristics of consumer staples defensive stocks [0].

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Metric	Market Consensus	Prior Value (Q3)
EPS	$1.39	$1.82
Revenue	$4.09 billion	$4.13 billion
Report Date	2026-01-27	-

Note: Market consensus is relatively conservative, and the Q3 beat may be difficult to replicate [0]

Investors should focus on the following metrics:

1. Revenue Growth Guidance
   : Whether positive growth can be achieved
2. Gross Margin Trend
   : Cost pass-through capability
3. International Business Performance
   : Foreign exchange impact and emerging market growth
4. Kenvue Merger Progress
   : Integration timeline and synergies
5. 2026 Full-Year Outlook
   : Management’s adjusted expectations for the future

Scenario	EPS Performance	Potential Stock Price Reaction
Beat Expectations (> $1.50)	+8% or more	3-5% Increase
Meet Expectations ($1.35-$1.50)	-3% to +8%	Relatively Stable
Miss Expectations (<$1.35)	-3% or more	3-5% Decrease

Given that market consensus is already relatively conservative, the probability of

is high, and the earnings report is [0].

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Item	Details
Target Company	Kenvue Inc. (spin-off of Johnson & Johnson’s consumer health business)
Transaction Structure	Cash + Stock: $3.50 per share + 0.14625 shares of KMB
Total Consideration	~$48.7 billion
Ownership Stake	54% for KMB shareholders, 46% for Kenvue shareholders
Expected Completion Date	H2 2026
Management	Mike Hsu will serve as Chairman and CEO of the combined company

• Complementary Product Portfolio
  : Kenvue offers health care brands such as Tylenol, Band-Aid, and Neutrogena, forming complete coverage with KMB’s personal care products
• Market Scale
  : The combined company will have annual revenue of approximately $32 billion, becoming a global leader in the health and wellness sector [1]
• Synergies
  : Expected to achieve cost savings and cross-selling opportunities

• Regulatory Approval
  : Antitrust review required
• Shareholder Litigation
  : Some Kenvue shareholders have filed legal challenges against the transaction terms [1]
• Integration Complexity
  : Execution risks of large-scale mergers and acquisitions
• Financing Costs
  : Debt financing for the $3.50 per share cash consideration

Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) has

the transaction, which is a positive signal for the smooth completion of the merger [1].

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The consumer staples defensive sector

the broader market in 2025:

Index	2025 Performance
S&P 500	+19.9%
Consumer Staples Select Sector	-6.5%

:

• Investor preference for AI-driven high-growth technology stocks
• Weak consumer spending, especially among low-income groups
• Inflationary pressures squeezing corporate profit margins [2][3]

:

• The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle has begun, which is beneficial to consumption
• Fiscal stimulus policy (“One Big Beautiful Bill Act”) is expected to boost income for middle- and low-income consumers
• Adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs has slowed, reducing the impact on the food and beverage sector
• Industry-specific headwinds are stabilizing [2][3]

:

• Low-end consumer spending remains under pressure
• Tariff policy uncertainty
• Intensified competition, limited category expansion

Advantage	Analysis
Consumer Staples Attribute	Products such as diapers, facial tissues, and toilet paper are rigid demands, with low sensitivity to economic cycles
Brand Moat	Huggies, Kleenex, etc., are leading brands in their respective segments
High Dividend	Dividend yield of ~5.1%, providing stable cash flow returns
Low Volatility	Beta of only 0.28, relatively resilient during market declines
International Business	Growth potential in emerging markets, geographic diversification reduces single-market risk

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Institution	Rating	Target Price	Recent Developments
Consensus Rating	Hold	$115.00	-
UBS	Neutral	$107↓	Downgraded on 2026-01-14 (from $132)
TD Cowen	Hold	$105↓	Downgraded on 2026-01-08 (from $112)
Wells Fargo	Equal Weight	$105↓	Downgraded on 2026-01-05 (from $110)
Citi	Sell	$102	Maintained Sell rating

:

• Buy: 29%
• Hold: 61.3%
• Sell: 9.7%

Analysts generally agree that

, but are cautiously optimistic about fundamental improvements in 2026 [0][1].

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Dimension	Score (5-point scale)
Absolute Valuation (P/E 17x)	4.0
Relative Valuation (vs History)	4.5
DCF-Implied Discount	5.0
Dividend Yield (5.1%)	4.5

: 4.5/5.0 →

Risk Type	Level	Explanation
Operating Risk	Medium	Intense competition in the consumer staples industry, limited pricing power
Financial Risk	Medium-High	Low current ratio, merger increases debt burden
Valuation Risk	Low	Stock price has fully reflected pessimistic expectations
Merger Risk	Medium-High	Execution uncertainty of the Kenvue transaction
Macro Risk	Low	Defensive attributes provide protection

:

1. Ample Downside Protection
   : The current stock price is only about 4% away from the 52-week low, with limited downward potential
2. Attractive Valuation
   : DCF analysis shows approximately 100%-400% potential upside
3. Dividend Provides Cushion
   : 5.1% dividend yield provides reliable cash flow for investors
4. Limited Earnings Risk
   : Market consensus has been lowered, and a slight beat can provide support
5. Merger Creates Value
   : The Kenvue merger is expected to unlock synergies in the long term

:

• Short-term stock price may remain under pressure due to market style and consumption data
• The Kenvue merger faces regulatory and execution risks
• Macroeconomic uncertainty may affect consumer spending

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Against the backdrop of

, the of Kimberly Clark as a is reflected in the following:

Value Dimension	Conclusion
Defensive Attributes	Excellent (Beta 0.28, high dividend, rigid demand)
Valuation Margin of Safety	Ample (DCF analysis shows 100%+ discount)
Earnings Resilience	Strong (beat EPS expectations for three consecutive quarters)
Short-Term Catalyst	Q4 earnings report (January 27) has a high probability of being neutral to positive
Long-Term Catalyst	Successful integration of the Kenvue merger

, KMB offers a at the current price. Recommendations:

• Entry Timing
  : Accumulate positions in batches in the $98-$100 range
• Target Price
  : Conservative target of $115 (consensus expectation), medium-term target of $130-$150
• Stop-Loss Level
  : $92 (~8% downside protection)
• Holding Period
  : 6-12 months (waiting for earnings validation and valuation reversion)

: Based on fully lowered market consensus, strong earnings resilience of the company, and extremely low Beta coefficient, , but a sharp increase requires better-than-expected results or optimistic guidance from management.

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[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - KMB Company Overview, Real-Time Quotes, Financial Analysis, Technical Analysis, DCF Valuation (2026-01-20)

[1] GuruFocus - “Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Announces Strategic Merger with Kenvue Inc.” (2026-01-17) (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4116270/kimberlyclark-corporation-kmb-announces-strategic-merger-with-kenvue-inc)

[2] Fidelity Institutional - “Consumer Staples Sector Outlook 2026” (https://institutional.fidelity.com/advisors/insights/spotlights/equity-sector-performance-outlook/consumer-staples-sector)

[3] Charles Schwab - “Stock Sector Outlook January 2026” (https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-sector-outlook)