Analysis of the Limit-Up of Mingtai Aluminum (601677): Better-Than-Expected Earnings Growth, High-End Transformation Drives Valuation Recovery

Mingtai Aluminum (601677.SH) surged to a limit-up on January 21, 2026, closing at RMB 16.63 with a 9.99% gain. The trading volume reached 50.80 million shares, representing a 61.4% increase from the average daily volume of 31.48 million shares, and hit a 52-week high. This analysis is based on reports from Sina Finance [1][2] and real-time data from the Jinling Analysis Database [0], conducting a comprehensive study on the reasons for the limit-up, market sentiment, and subsequent trends.

On the evening of January 19, Mingtai Aluminum released its 2025 annual earnings guidance announcement, which served as the direct trigger for this limit-up [1][2]:

Financial Indicator	Guidance Range	YoY Growth Rate
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	RMB 1.95-2.0 billion	12%-14% increase
Net Profit Excluding Non-Recurring Gains and Losses	RMB 1.7-1.75 billion	18%-21% increase

Notably, the growth rate of net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses (18%-21%) is significantly higher than that of net profit attributable to shareholders (12%-14%), indicating that the profitability of the company’s main business is continuously improving, with high-quality earnings growth [1][2].

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The company adheres to the development of a low-carbon circular economy, and various of its products have completed SGS carbon footprint verification. The low-carbon advantages of its recycled aluminum products have significantly enhanced market competitiveness, facilitating expansion in domestic and international markets [1][2].

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The heat treatment high-end production line (air cushion furnace) has been officially put into operation. The company is focusing on expanding into high-end sectors such as new energy batteries, automotive lightweight robotics, and aluminum materials for low-altitude aircraft. Recently launched products include all-aluminum column robot bodies, drone shielding covers, radiator composite aluminum materials, and battery aluminum plastic film foils [2].

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The company has a diversified and segmented product portfolio covering multiple key sectors, with steady growth in production and sales volume. High-end products are emerging as a second growth curve, with continuous expansion of profit margin per ton [2].

The non-ferrous metals sector has continued to heat up. The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159876) has seen net capital inflows of RMB 644 million in the past 10 days, with its scale reaching RMB 1.626 billion as of January 19, a record high [1]. Institutions such as China Post Securities suggest ‘firmly holding precious metals, and buying copper, aluminum, and tin on dips’, believing that supply disruptions and the explosive growth of energy storage demand in 2026 will highlight the importance of aluminum [1][3].

Regarding aluminum prices, the price of aluminum ingots rose from RMB 21,740/ton in December 2025 to RMB 24,140/ton in early January 2026, an increase of over 11%, providing solid fundamental support for aluminum enterprises [4].

From the price trend, Mingtai Aluminum shows obvious strong characteristics: the limit-up hit a 52-week high on the day, with a 5-day gain of 13.67%, a monthly gain of 16.46%, and a half-year gain of 32.83% [0]. In terms of trading volume, 50.80 million shares were traded on the day, a 61.4% increase from the average daily volume of 31.48 million shares, indicating obvious signs of off-market capital scrambling to buy, with strong willingness of main funds to enter the market [0].

However, there is a certain divergence between fundamentals and technicals. The basic materials sector fell 0.89% overall on January 20 [0], but Mingtai Aluminum bucked the trend to hit a limit-up, indicating that the stock’s independent performance today is mainly driven by its own positive earnings news, rather than being driven by the overall rise of the sector.

Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
KDJ	K:69.3, D:56.7, J:94.5	Short-term overbought, but maintains a bullish pattern [0]
MACD	No death cross appears	Still in a bullish trend [0]
RSI(14)	Overbought zone	Short-term pullback pressure exists [0]
Beta	0.86	Volatility is slightly lower than the market [0]

From a technical analysis perspective, the MACD indicator has not shown a death cross, so the medium-term trend remains bullish; however, the KDJ indicator’s J value is as high as 94.5, and the RSI has entered the overbought zone, indicating certain short-term pullback pressure [0]. The support level below at RMB 15.07 is an important short-term technical support level [0].

The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is only 11.63x, which is in the historical low range; the price-to-book ratio (TTM) is 1.08x, indicating that the asset value is undervalued to a certain extent; ROE reaches 9.69%, maintaining a good level of profitability [0]. Combined with the 18%-21% growth rate of net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the company has good valuation appeal.

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The limit-up of Mingtai Aluminum is not an isolated event, but the result of the resonance of multiple factors. Earnings guidance provides fundamental support, the heating up of the non-ferrous metals sector provides capital support, and the company’s transformation to high-value-added sectors such as new energy, robotics, and low-altitude economy opens up growth space. These three dimensions form a triangular support logic of ‘Earnings + Capital + Growth’.

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The growth rate of net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is significantly higher than that of net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating that the quality of the company’s main business is improving, rather than relying on non-recurring gains and losses. This reflects that the company’s high-end manufacturing transformation strategy is transitioning from the investment phase to the harvest phase, and the low-carbon advantages of the recycled aluminum business are being converted into market competitiveness.

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Although the company itself has performed strongly, it is necessary to note that the basic materials sector fell 0.89% overall on January 20 [0], indicating that market style may be undergoing rotation. Differentiation may occur within the non-ferrous metals sector, and capital may shift its focus from the entire sector to individual targets with excellent fundamentals.

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The 12%-14% earnings growth guidance for 2025 provides high certainty, and the realization of annual report results is worth looking forward to [1][2].

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The 11.63x P/E ratio is at a low level in the non-ferrous metals industry. As the market’s recognition of the company’s high-end transformation results deepens, there is potential for valuation recovery [0].

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New growth drivers such as new energy batteries, automotive lightweighting, robotics, and low-altitude economy are in a stage of rapid volume expansion, and high-end products are expected to become a new profit growth pole [2].

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Capital continues to flow into non-ferrous metal ETFs, and institutions such as China Post Securities have explicitly expressed optimism about the performance of aluminum and aluminum-related assets in 2026, providing strong sector-level support [1][3].

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The RSI has entered the overbought zone, and the KDJ indicator’s J value is as high as 94.5, so short-term pullback pressure exists [0].

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The basic materials sector fell 0.89% overall on January 20. If the sector adjusts as a whole, it may put pressure on individual stocks [0].

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It is necessary to pay attention to whether subsequent trading volume can remain at a high level. If trading volume shrinks sharply tomorrow, it is necessary to be vigilant against a pullback after opening the limit-up [0].

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Aluminum price trends directly affect the company’s profitability. If aluminum prices pull back, it may affect market expectations for the company’s performance [3].

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The earnings guidance data is unaudited, and there may be differences with the actual annual report data [1][2].

Scenario	Probability	Trigger Conditions	Trend Forecast
Continued Strength	45%	Sustained high trading volume + sector support	Test the RMB 17-17.5 range [0]
Consolidation	40%	Shrinking trading volume + sector differentiation	Consolidate in the RMB 16-17 range
Short-Term Pullback	15%	Sector rotation + shrinking trading volume	Pull back to the RMB 15-15.5 support level

Comprehensive judgment: Mingtai Aluminum has a strong short-term trend driven by positive earnings news, but investors need to be alert to pullback risks brought by technical overbought conditions. In the medium and long term, the company has achieved remarkable results in high-end manufacturing transformation, has prominent low-carbon advantages in recycled aluminum, and its valuation is at a historical low, making it a good medium and long-term investment target.

The core driver of Mingtai Aluminum’s limit-up today is its 2025 annual earnings guidance announcement. The 12%-14% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders and 18%-21% growth in net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses indicate high-quality growth in its main business. The company has obvious low-carbon advantages in recycled aluminum, has achieved remarkable results in high-end intelligent manufacturing transformation, and new growth drivers such as new energy batteries, automotive lightweighting, robotics, and low-altitude economy are expanding rapidly. Its current valuation is at a historical low (11.63x PE), with good valuation appeal. Technically, there is short-term overbought risk, so attention should be paid to the sustainability of trading volume and the impact of sector rotation.

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database - Real-time market, technical indicators, trading volume data

[1] Sina Finance - Mingtai Aluminum’s net profit is expected to grow by over 12%! Capital firmly scrambles to buy

[2] Sina Finance - 2025 Annual Earnings Guidance Announcement of Henan Mingtai Aluminum Co., Ltd.

[3] iFinD/China Energy News - Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Report: Short-Term Demand Under Pressure, Suggest Buying Copper, Aluminum, Tin on Dips

[4] Mysteel - Analysis on How Mandatory Magnesium Alloy Standards Reshape 2026 Order Patterns