NBIS Reddit Options Loss Analysis: AI Stock Volatility and Risk Assessment

This analysis is based on a Reddit post [Event Source] published on November 13, 2025, at 00:49:24 EST, where a user reported significant losses on NBIS (Nebius Group N.V.) options trades. The post, titled “There she goes,” describes the user taking approximately $7,000 in losses on November calls while maintaining bullish sentiment and still holding March calls.

The Reddit trader’s experience coincides with broader market turbulence for NBIS, which declined 7.69% to $94.36 on the same day [0]. This decline follows the company’s Q3 2025 earnings announcement on November 11, 2025, which revealed mixed results: impressive revenue growth of 355% year-over-year to $146 million, but an earnings per share miss of -$0.55 versus expected -$0.50 [4].

The stock’s performance over the past 30 days shows a 23.76% decline from $123.77, with significant daily volatility (5.51% standard deviation) [0]. Despite this weakness, NBIS operates in a relatively strong Communication Services sector that was up 1.38% on the day, suggesting company-specific factors rather than broad sector weakness [0].

: A notable disconnect exists between institutional and retail sentiment. While the Reddit user experienced significant losses, institutional analysts maintain 100% Buy ratings with a consensus price target of $101.00 (7% upside potential) [0]. Multiple firms including Northland Capital, DA Davidson, and Goldman Sachs maintained Buy ratings post-earnings [0]. Meanwhile, Reddit sentiment surged from 41/100 to 87/100 in just four days despite price weakness [2].

: NBIS exemplifies the classic high-growth AI infrastructure investment thesis. The company reported substantial revenue acceleration (39% quarter-over-quarter) alongside major customer wins including a $3 billion Meta deal and accelerated capital expenditure guidance to approximately $5 billion [4]. However, this growth comes at significant cost, with operating margins at -151.05% and the company planning an at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million shares, potentially creating dilution [4].

: The Reddit user’s ~$7,000 loss on November calls illustrates how options magnify both gains and losses in volatile stocks. The timing risk of holding options through earnings announcements proved particularly costly given the 7.69% single-day decline [0]. The user’s description of “YOLOing too hard on AI” suggests excessive position sizing relative to portfolio, a common mistake among retail traders.

: Users should be aware that several risk factors may significantly impact NBIS going forward:

1. Execution Risk
   : The company plans to grow contracted capacity to 2.5 gigawatts by 2026, up from 1 gigawatt, requiring substantial operational expertise [4]
2. Financing Risk
   : The announced equity offering program could create shareholder dilution and pressure on stock price [4]
3. Valuation Risk
   : With a P/E ratio of 122.55, the stock is priced for substantial future growth, making it vulnerable to disappointments [0]

: Despite risks, several positive factors support the investment thesis:

1. Major Customer Wins
   : The Microsoft and Meta deals provide revenue visibility, with revenue expected to ramp in 2026 [4]
2. Capacity Expansion
   : Plans for 800MW-1GW of power-connected capacity by end-2026 could support significant growth [4]
3. Profitability Path
   : Management targets slightly positive adjusted EBITDA by year-end 2025 [4]

: The Reddit experience highlights critical risks for options traders:

• Earnings Exposure
  : Holding options through earnings without proper hedging proved costly
• Volatility Misunderstanding
  : High-growth AI stocks exhibit significant price swings, making options particularly risky
• Leverage Risk
  : Options magnify losses, requiring strict position sizing and risk management

The Reddit post serves as a cautionary tale about options trading in volatile AI growth stocks. NBIS presents a complex risk-reward profile with strong fundamental growth metrics but significant execution challenges and high valuation [0][4]. The company’s 355% year-over-year revenue growth and major customer wins contrast with current unprofitability and substantial capital requirements [4].

For market participants considering NBIS exposure, the key considerations include understanding the company’s path to profitability, monitoring capacity deployment progress, and implementing appropriate risk management strategies, particularly when using leveraged instruments like options. The divergence between institutional confidence (100% Buy ratings) and retail trader experiences underscores the importance of position sizing and risk tolerance assessment [0][Event Source].

The stock’s current decline to $94.36 may reflect market concerns about execution risk and the timeline to profitability, despite impressive revenue growth and strategic customer partnerships [0][4].