Kouzijiu 2025 Net Profit Expected to Drop 50%-60%: Plight and Breakthrough Path for Sub-Premium Baijiu Under Pressure

Based on the latest collected data and information, I provide you with an in-depth analysis report on Kouzijiu’s performance warning and the breakthrough path for the sub-premium baijiu industry.

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According to Kouzijiu’s 2025 annual performance forecast, the company expects its full-year net profit attributable to shareholders to be

, representing a year-on-year plunge of [1][2]. This figure marks the largest annual drop for the company since its listing in 2015, far exceeding market expectations: the average forecast by securities firms previously reached RMB 1.081 billion, with the lowest forecast also above RMB 836 million[2].

• Q1 2025
  : Revenue reached RMB 1.81 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.42%, remaining slightly positive
• Q2 2025
  : Revenue reached RMB 721 million, plummeting
  48.48%
  year-on-year, while net profit plunged 70.91%
• Q3 2025
  : Revenue reached RMB 643 million, down 46.23% year-on-year, with net profit only hitting RMB 27 million, a sharp year-on-year drop of
  92.55%
  [1][3]
• Q4 2025
  : Expected net profit ranges from
  -RMB 79.91 million to RMB 85.59 million
  , which may mark the first quarterly loss since the company’s listing[2]

Kouzijiu’s performance dilemma is closely related to its

. For years, over 90% of the company’s revenue has relied on premium baijiu, but this core pillar is facing severe challenges[1].

Product Tier	Revenue (RMB 100 million)	YoY Change	Proportion
Premium Baijiu	29.61	-27.98%	Approx. 93%
Mid-Range Baijiu	0.41	-15.38%	1.33%
Budget Baijiu	1.14	+25.09%	3.65%[1][3]

Kouzijiu defines products priced above RMB 100 as “premium baijiu”, but its coverage in higher price segments is severely insufficient. In recent years, the company launched the “Jian Series” (Jian 10, Jian 20, Jian 30) to cover the RMB 300, RMB 500, and RMB 1,000 price bands, but the market response has been unsatisfactory. Taking the core product Jian 20 (with an official suggested retail price of RMB 698 per bottle) as an example, the actual transaction price on e-commerce platforms is only around RMB 400 per bottle, with a price inversion range of nearly

[1].

Baijiu industry commentator Xiao Zhuqing pointed out: “The brand strength of its high-end ‘Jian Series’ is insufficient to support fierce competition in the above-RMB 600 segment, trapping it in the awkward dilemma of ‘being neither high-end nor affordable’”[1]. Kouzijiu’s core flagship product is still positioned in the RMB 100-130 price band, while the mainstream consumption band in Anhui Province has upgraded to RMB 200-400, resulting in a clear mismatch between product structure and market demand[3].

Kouzijiu’s traditional “panzhongpan” (terminal-focused) marketing model was once a winning strategy for the company’s rise, but

[1]. This “terminal strong promotion + channel monopoly” model relies on monopolistic promotions in hotel and catering terminals, but its effectiveness has been greatly reduced amid shrinking consumption scenarios and intensified channel transformation.

More troubling is that the

, which the company has long relied on, has led to extremely weak control over channels by the manufacturer. Large distributors pursue short-term profits, often showing inertia when launching new products, making it difficult to adapt to the flat, refined channel trends of the modern baijiu market[1].

• In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from the traditional wholesale agency channel reached RMB 2.9 billion, plummeting
  29.7%
  year-on-year[3]
• Contract liabilities (dealer advance payments) stood at RMB 339 million, a decrease of
  RMB 221 million
  compared to RMB 560 million at the end of 2024, indicating a significant weakening in dealers’ willingness to make advance payments[3]
• Cash flow from operating activities turned from positive to negative, with a net amount of
  -RMB 390 million
  , a year-on-year plunge of 208.91%[3]
• Inventory scale climbed to a historical peak of
  RMB 6.159 billion
  , a year-on-year increase of 6.38%[1]

Amid the company’s predicament, the

by the actual controller Liu Ansheng have attracted widespread market attention. Since 2018, he has cashed out a total of over [1][3]:

Year	Amount Cashed Out (RMB 100 million)
2018	0.93
2019-2020	4.35
2024	2.16
2025	3.29
Total	>10.73 [1]

More worrying is that the share pledge ratio of Liu Ansheng has reached

[1]. This “insider exit first” behavior has severely undermined investor confidence.

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Kouzijiu’s dilemma is not an isolated case, but a microcosm of systemic pressures in the sub-premium baijiu industry. In 2025, the baijiu industry is experiencing the inevitable growing pains of

[4].

• Continuously Declining Output
  : As of October 2025, the monthly output of Chinese baijiu plummeted
  18.3%
  year-on-year, marking the deepest drop in nearly five years[4]
• Loosening Wholesale Prices of Premium Baijiu
  : The wholesale price of loose bottles of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has dropped to RMB 1,545-1,550 per bottle, and even as low as RMB 1,399 per bottle on some e-commerce platforms, breaking through the official guide price of RMB 1,499[4]
• Sales Volume During Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Dropped by Approximately 20% Year-on-Year
  [4]

• Total operating revenue reached
  RMB 317.779 billion
  , down
  5.90%
  year-on-year
• Total net profit reached
  RMB 122.571 billion
  , down
  6.93%
  year-on-year
• Total net cash flow from operating activities reached
  RMB 87.706 billion
  , down
  20.85%
  year-on-year[5]

The top five baijiu enterprises (Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe) recorded total operating revenue of RMB 265.99 billion in the first three quarters, down

year-on-year; their total net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 112.28 billion, down year-on-year, collectively showing signs of “growth stall”[5].

Sub-premium baijiu (usually referring to the RMB 300-800 price band) is facing severe pressure from

[1][3]:

• Head enterprises such as Moutai and Wuliangye are promoting channel sinking and increasing penetration into regional markets
• Head enterprises are increasing upfront investments, compressing the living space of regional baijiu enterprises

• The market size of naked-bottle baijiu is expected to exceed
  RMB 200 billion
  in 2025, with growth of “high-end naked-bottle” products priced at RMB 50-100 exceeding
  40%
  [6]
• Naked-bottle baijiu, which eliminates packaging premiums and focuses on cost-effectiveness, continues to increase its penetration in mass consumption scenarios

• Gujing Gongjiu recorded operating revenue of
  RMB 16.425 billion
  in the first three quarters of 2025, up 15.8% year-on-year
• Yingjia Gongjiu recorded operating revenue of
  RMB 4.516 billion
  , up 21.2% year-on-year
• Kouzijiu recorded operating revenue of
  RMB 3.174 billion
  , down 27.24% year-on-year, and has lost its position as the “second-largest baijiu enterprise in Anhui”[3]

“High inventory” and “price inversion” are the two core issues plaguing baijiu enterprises and dealers in 2025[6]:

• Channel inventory pressure in the industry continues to rise
• Dealers face the dual dilemma of capital turnover and inventory depreciation
• They have to “cut prices to clear stock”, forming a severe “price inversion”[4]

Product Tier	Gross Profit Margin in 2023	Gross Profit Margin in 2024	Change
Premium Products	75.87%	75.65%	-0.22pct
Mid-Range Products	44.38%	37.29%	-7.09pct
Budget Products	42.85%	35.24%	-7.61pct[1]

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Head and regional baijiu enterprises have intensively launched diversified relief measures[6]:

• Yanghe
  : Lowered its 2025 payment collection targets, with targets for the Spring Sugar Fair, mid-year, and September set at 35%, 45%, and 50% respectively, significantly lower than the 45%, 50%, and 75% in the same period of 2024
• Gujing Gongjiu
  : Proactively “slowed down” in Q3 2025, helping channels digest inventory by controlling shipment rhythm
• Wuliangye
  : Launched an innovative “market goods collection and code conversion” policy, allowing dealers to collect low-priced goods from the market and offset their sales targets, while simultaneously strengthening price control and dealer subsidies

The hierarchical price difference profit model of traditional baijiu is being broken[6]:

• Unified Pricing Across the Entire Supply Chain
  : Some sauce-flavor baijiu enterprises adopt a unified pricing strategy for new products across the “factory-to-retail” supply chain
• Goods First, Payment Later Policy
  : Reduces dealers’ capital and inventory pressure
• Full Price Control Model
  : Takes the ex-factory price as the red line, rewarding dealers through long-term rebates and stock dividends
• Direct Terminal Connection
  : Hunan sauce-flavor baijiu brand Jinzizai cooperates directly with terminals to achieve “unified purchase price, sales price, and media price”

Head baijiu enterprises have launched innovative financial products in cooperation with financial institutions[6]:

• “Jiushang Loan” and “Jiu e Loan” solve dealers’ capital pressure for peak season stock preparation
• Some sauce-flavor baijiu enterprises provide “inventory interest subsidies”, giving corresponding subsidies based on inventory value

The industry has fully entered a new stage of

and [6]:

• On the first day of Meituan Flash Sale’s 618 Grand Promotion, liquor transaction volume increased
  70 times
  compared to the same period last year
• Tsingtao Beer’s “Fresh Direct Delivery” covers over 30 cities, building an instant service network for the “3-kilometer living circle”
• Douyin Group Buying has high penetration in sinking markets, driving a large number of tobacco and liquor stores to deploy short videos + live streaming for liquor sales

• Luzhou Laojiao
  : Built a “golden production batch” model, improving the prediction accuracy of high-quality baijiu output rate to over 95%
• Guxiaojiu
  : The “Flash Sales AI System” analyzes tens of millions of user portraits and terminal sales data in real time, with the number of opened bottles of the S series increasing by over
  500%
  year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025

Regional baijiu brands have become core forces for counter-cyclical growth[6]. Taking the Anhui market as an example, local baijiu brands hold over

of the market share, forming a consumption inertia of “trusting local baijiu”[6].

Baijiu industry analyst Cai Xuefei pointed out: “As a regional brand, Kouzijiu should deeply cultivate the provincial market to build a moat, and prudently promote differentiated national layout. It needs to deepen the refined operation of local channels in Anhui, strengthen emotional connection with consumers, and transform regional cultural heritage into brand advantages”[3].

Facing shrinking consumption scenarios and rationalized consumer demand, product innovation in baijiu enterprises entered a stage of “quality improvement and speed acceleration” in 2025[6]:

• Luzhou Laojiao revamped its classic product Erqu, priced at RMB 65
• Gujing Gongjiu launched the 8th generation Gujing Gongjiu priced at RMB 80 per bottle and the Old Porcelain Gongjiu priced at RMB 45
• Yanghe Daqu’s high-end naked-bottle baijiu exceeded 10,000 pre-orders online within 48 hours

• Kouzijiu plans to launch innovative products such as light baijiu and fruit-flavored baijiu with alcohol content below 35 degrees
• Luzhou Laojiao invited Xu Zhisheng to endorse “Luzhou Laojiao Erqu”
• Wuliangye launched a 39-degree product, with the code scanning rate increasing from 50% to 60%

• Wuliangye launched “Feng Huolun” craft beer
• Zhenjiu launched Bull Market craft beer
• Pangdonglai and Jiugui Liquor jointly created “Jiugui · Free Love”

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In December 2025, Kouzijiu’s first “Kouzi Liquor Shop” opened in Huaibei, Anhui, positioned as a

, focusing on pure grain bulk baijiu and community experience, selling three core products (Suixi Daqu, Kouzi Liquor, Kouzijiu) on tap[1][2].

Independent baijiu industry commentator Xiao Zhuqing believes: “Kouzijiu uses direct-operated liquor shops to enter the market with ‘manufacturer direct operation + high-frequency repurchase of bulk baijiu’, which essentially reconstructs terminal touchpoints, regaining control over pricing, display, and sales data, while using bulk baijiu to meet budget demand and prevent market share from being further eroded by naked-bottle famous baijiu”[2].

Kouzijiu increased its online marketing efforts, and the 3rd E-Commerce Cellar Friends Exhibition at the end of September 2025 was linked with “Douyin Mall Super Brand Day” and “JD Supermarket Brand Day”, achieving remarkable results[1][3]:

• JD Supermarket Brand Day
  : The year-on-year growth rate of the brand’s transaction amount exceeded
  630%
• During Douyin Super Brand Day
  : The official flagship store ranked
  TOP2
  in Douyin’s baijiu category store list, with transaction amount increasing
  411%
  year-on-year

In response to the mismatch between product structure and market demand, Kouzijiu has made a series of adjustments[1][3]:

• Launched “Jian 7” positioned in the RMB 100-300 price band in early 2025
• Launched the “Ancient Cellar Yuan-Ming-Qing” series for e-commerce channels ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival
• Plans to launch innovative products such as light baijiu and fruit-flavored baijiu with alcohol content below 35 degrees

Direct sales channels (including group purchases) are one of the few bright spots for Kouzijiu currently:

• Achieved revenue of
  RMB 133 million
  in the first half of 2025, up
  44.57%
  year-on-year[1]
• Achieved year-on-year growth of
  64.94%
  in the third quarter, reaching RMB 222 million[3]

Although Kouzijiu has launched a number of reform measures,

[1]:

Reform Measure	Current Situation Evaluation	Challenges
Kouzi Liquor Shops (Bulk Baijiu)	First store just opened	Large-scale replication takes time, and it is questionable whether brand strength can support it
Online Channels	Impressive growth rate	Small base, difficult to offset the decline of traditional channels
Product Line Adjustment	New products launched	Brand reshaping of high-end products cannot be achieved overnight
Direct Sales Channels	Strong growth	Still small in scale, with limited influence

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Based on industry trends and the case analysis of Kouzijiu, sub-premium baijiu enterprises need to focus on the following core breakthrough paths:

• Control volume to maintain price, stabilize transaction prices of core products
• Enhance brand momentum, strengthen consumer awareness
• Avoid aggressive price hikes, respect market rules

• Deeply cultivate base markets, bind rigid demand scenarios such as wedding banquets and birthday banquets
• Build a “hidden champion in scenarios”
• Strengthen capillary-style channel penetration

• Open up the closed loop of “online traffic diversion - in-store verification”
• Achieve precision marketing with the help of AI
• Embrace new instant retail channels

• Launch products in price bands suitable for mass consumption
• Lay out new product categories that are youthful and lower in alcohol content
• Explore cross-border integration opportunities

• Control capital expenditure, optimize production capacity layout
• Improve operational efficiency, reduce unit costs
• Reduce costs and increase efficiency through digital transformation

The problems faced by Kouzijiu are not just short-term performance decline, but also a

[1]:

• Stabilizing the scale of premium baijiu is a top priority
• Accelerate channel inventory destocking
• Stop losses in direct sales channel investment

• Regain brand positioning and market breakthroughs
• Complete the transformation from “channel-driven” to “brand-driven”
• Achieve optimization and upgrading of product structure

• Survive the industry adjustment cycle and achieve sustainable growth
• Establish unique competitive advantages in the multi-flavor baijiu category
• Explore feasible paths for national layout

• Industry Risk
  : The adjustment cycle of the baijiu industry may be longer than expected
• Policy Risk
  : Policy uncertainties such as consumption tax reform
• Competition Risk
  : National famous baijiu brands continue to compress regional market space
• Liquidity Risk
  : High inventory occupies a large amount of capital
• Valuation Risk
  : The current PE of 16.20 times (TTM) may be passively raised along with performance downgrades

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Kouzijiu’s expected 50%-60% drop in net profit in 2025 is a microcosm of the in-depth adjustment of the sub-premium baijiu industry. The core challenges faced by the company are:

.

Against the backdrop of overall industry pressure, sub-premium baijiu enterprises need to shift from “channel stock pressing” to “C-end sales”, from “price competition” to “value deep cultivation”, and from “high-end bubble” back to “essence of consumption”. Kouzijiu has shown a certain determination for change through self-rescue measures such as launching “Kouzi Liquor Shops”, developing online channels, and adjusting product structure, but the effects of the reforms still need time to be tested.

Looking forward, with the gradual recovery of consumer demand and the continuous deepening of enterprise innovation, the baijiu industry is expected to usher in a new development chapter in 2026. In this process, enterprises that can provide real quality and emotional value, adapt to mass consumption demand, and embrace digital transformation will truly gain a firm foothold after the industry reshuffle.

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[1] Guancha.cn - “Profit Halved, Actual Controller Cashed Out RMB 1 Billion in 5 Years: Insiders Exit First After Kouzijiu’s Collapse” (https://www.guancha.cn/economy/2026_01_19_804335.shtml)

[2] CLS.cn - “First Black Swan in Baijiu Stock Annual Reports: Kouzijiu’s Net Profit Expected to Drop 50%-60%” (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2251065)

[3] Cnfol.com - “Kouzijiu’s 2025 Pressure”