Oral GLP-1 Skyrockets: In-Depth Analysis of Jinkai Biotech's Benefits

Based on the collected information, I will now prepare a detailed financial analysis report for you:

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Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide (Rybelsus for weight loss indication) received FDA approval in late December 2024 and was officially launched in the U.S. market on January 10, 2025. It demonstrated strong market momentum in its first week of launch:

Data Source	Oral Semaglutide	Injectable Semaglutide	Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide
IQVIA (4 days)	3,071	768	1,137
Symphony (First Week)	4,290	1,017	1,911

Note: IQVIA data does not include NoVoCare pharmacies and telemedicine channels, so actual prescription volumes are higher[1][2]

• The first-week prescription volume of oral semaglutide is
  4.2 times that of injectable semaglutide
  and
  2.2 times that of Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide
• UBS predicts that by Q1 2026, the prescription volume of oral semaglutide for obesity indication will reach
  400,000
  , equivalent to the initial launch period of Zepbound[1]
• Novo Nordisk’s stock price surged
  9% in a single day
  after the launch of oral semaglutide, reflecting a strong market response

According to forecasts from multiple institutions, the global GLP-1 drug market landscape is as follows:

Forecast Institution	Total GLP-1 Market in 2030	Oral GLP-1 Market Share	Oral GLP-1 Market Size
Pfizer	$90-120 billion	30% (2032)	$27-36 billion
Frost & Sullivan	$90-120 billion	≥25%	≥$22.5 billion
Morgan Stanley	-	30%-50%	-
Eli Lilly	-	20%-25%	-

The historical growth trajectory of oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) verifies the potential of the oral GLP-1 track:

• 2019 sales: $7 million
• 2024 sales: nearly $3.4 billion
• Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): ~239.5%
  [1][2]

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SNAC (“Sodium 8-(2-hydroxybenzamido)octanoate”) is a

for oral semaglutide, and its mechanism of action is as follows:

Function	Mechanism of Action
Local Gastric Acid Neutralization	Increases gastric pH, inhibits pepsin activity, and significantly prolongs the half-life of semaglutide
Promote Transmembrane Absorption	Induces semaglutide to form a monomeric conformation that is easier to penetrate, improving permeability
Transmembrane Transport	The lipophilic SNAC inserts into gastric epithelial cell membranes, allowing the drug to be absorbed via dissolution-diffusion
Localize Absorption Site	Anchors absorption in the stomach, avoiding the complex intestinal environment

• Injectable semaglutide: No SNAC required
• Oral semaglutide: Each tablet requires an additional 300mg of SNAC

Taking the U.S. weight loss indication as an example for calculation:

Parameter	Assumed Value
U.S. Obese Patients	160 million people
GLP-1 Medication Penetration Rate	50%
Final Market Share of Oral GLP-1	30%
Market Share of Oral Semaglutide	30%
Number of Patients Taking Oral Semaglutide	7-8 million
Annual SNAC Dosage per Patient	4563mg/person/year (considering 50% adherence)
Annual Total SNAC Consumption	766.5-876 tons (median 821 tons)
Price of GMP-Grade SNAC	RMB 3000-5000/kg (taking median RMB 4000/kg)

In addition, reports from Citeline and Evaluate Pharma (Q2 2025) show that the global SNAC intermediate market is expected to exceed

[1][2]

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Jinkai Biotech (Stock Ticker: 301509.SZ) is the only listed company in China that

it is a supplier of Novo Nordisk’s SNAC intermediates. Its core competitive advantages are as follows:

Competitive Advantage	Details
Qualification Barrier	Has built the first commercial SNAC production line in China that meets FDA cGMP standards
Production Capacity Barrier	One of the very few companies globally with stable ton-scale supply capacity (the other is Novo Nordisk’s in-house production system)
First-Mover Advantage	Began cooperating with Novo Nordisk in 2021, forming a deeply bonded relationship
Technology Barrier	The production process of high-purity GMP-grade SNAC is complex, with high technical thresholds

Based on the company’s external communication data:

Year	SNAC Business Revenue	YoY Growth	Proportion of Total Revenue	Gross Margin
2022	RMB 7 million	-	1.4%	45%
2023	RMB 30 million	+329%	5.5%	55%
2024	RMB 54.74 million (estimated)	+83%	9.5%	62%
2025E	RMB 150 million	+174%	23.1%	68%
2026E	RMB 300 million	+100%	35.3%	70%

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of SNAC Business (2023-2025E): 177.8%[1][2]

The growth of the SNAC business can be verified through changes in the company’s non-fluorinated CDMO business in its financial statements (SNAC contains no fluorine elements):

Indicator	2024	H1 2025	Change
Non-Fluorinated CDMO Revenue	RMB 145 million	RMB 164 million (half-year)	+88.76%
Gross Margin of Non-Fluorinated CDMO	29.1%	67.63%	+38.53 percentage points
Total Company Revenue	-	RMB 488 million (first three quarters)	+25.96%
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	-	RMB 103 million (first three quarters)	+163.24%

The significant increase in gross margin directly confirms the volume growth of the high-margin SNAC business[1][2]

Jinkai Biotech will see concentrated production capacity commissioning in 2025-2026:

Base	Existing Capacity	New Capacity	Commissioning Time
Existing Production Line	1200m³	-	-
Fuxin Base	-	200m³	2025
Fuxin Base (Newly Built)	-	400m³	In Planning
Dalian Base	-	200m³	2026
Dalian Base (GMP)	-	200m³	In Planning

• Pharmaceutical Intermediate Project: Commissioned in mid-2026
• High-End Pharmaceutical Product Project with Annual Output of 190 Tons: Commissioned in mid-2026[1][2]

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Indicator	2025	2026
Global SNAC Market	RMB 1 billion	RMB 1.5 billion
Jinkai Biotech’s Market Share	35%	40%
Jinkai Biotech’s SNAC Revenue	RMB 350 million	RMB 600 million
Net Profit Contributed by SNAC Business	RMB 105 million	RMB 180 million
Total Net Profit Forecast	RMB 130 million	RMB 200 million

Indicator	2025	2026
Jinkai Biotech’s SNAC Revenue	RMB 500 million	RMB 750 million
Net Profit Contributed by SNAC Business	RMB 150 million	RMB 225 million
Total Net Profit Forecast	RMB 175 million	RMB 250 million

1. Increasing Proportion of SNAC Business
   : Rising from approximately 9.5% in 2024 to approximately 35% in 2026, the increased proportion of high-margin business drives improvement in overall profitability
2. Production Capacity Release
   : Concentrated commissioning of new capacity in 2026 will significantly improve order acceptance capacity
3. Industry Beta
   : The oral GLP-1 track is in a period of rapid growth, with 2025-2026 being the golden period for volume expansion
4. Valuation Reconstruction
   : Market recognition of the SNAC business will drive a revaluation

Dimension	Content
Track	Oral GLP-1 formulations are booming, and SNAC is a rigid demand
Barriers	FDA cGMP qualification + ton-scale capacity + first-mover advantage
Flexibility	The SNAC business is in a volume expansion period from 0 to 1 to 10
Growth Rate	CAGR of SNAC revenue (2023-2025E) is 177.8%
Valuation	2025E dynamic P/E ratio is approximately 23x, relatively undervalued

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Risk Type	Details
Customer Concentration	High dependence on Novo Nordisk; need to pay attention to the stability of customer relationships
Competitive Landscape	Other suppliers may enter the SNAC market
Price Risk	SNAC prices may decline as competition intensifies
Capacity Absorption	Need to pay attention to order matching after new capacity is commissioned
Policy Risk	Changes in GLP-1 drug pricing and medical insurance policies

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The outstanding performance of oral semaglutide with 4,290 prescriptions in its first week verifies the huge market potential of the oral GLP-1 track.

.

From the financial data, the volume growth of the SNAC business has been reflected in the significant improvement of the company’s gross margin and net profit. With the concentrated commissioning of new capacity in 2026 and Jinkai Biotech’s leading position in the SNAC market, the company is expected to enter a

.

Net profit of RMB 130 million in 2025 and RMB 200 million in 2026 (YoY growth of over 50%), with a current dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 23x, making the valuation attractive.

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[1] Touzijie - “Oral GLP-1 Skyrockets” (https://news.pedaily.cn/202601/560133.shtml)

[2] Sina Finance - “Oral GLP-1 Skyrockets, Domestic ‘Water Sellers’ Score Big” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-19/doc-inhhwicm7696684.shtml)

[3] 21st Century Business Herald - “Star Weight-Loss Drug Generates RMB 10 Billion Annual Sales, Key Intermediate Supplier Jinkai Biotech Enters Accelerated Track” (http://www.21jingji.com/article/20231024/herald/941ee43f280a105732372f38cbf15b20.html)

[4] Eastmoney.com - Jinkai Biotech (301509) Individual Stock Data (https://data.eastmoney.com/stockdata/301509.html)

[5] Guotai Junan Securities - GLP-1 Special Research Report (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202511181783710755_1.pdf)