Deep Analysis of Shuijingfang (600779) 2025 Annual Performance

According to the earnings forecast released by Shuijingfang on January 19, 2026 [1][2][3], the company’s key 2025 financial indicators are as follows:

Core Indicator	2025 Data	Year-on-Year Change	Trend
Operating Revenue	RMB 3.038 billion	-42%	↓ Significant Decline
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	RMB 392 million	-71%	↓ Sharp Decline
Net Profit Excluding Non-Recurring Items	RMB 381 million	-71%	↓ Sharp Decline
Q4 Net Profit	RMB 66 million	Quarter-on-Quarter -70%	↓ Significantly Below Expectations

; Q4 net profit was about RMB 65.84 million, compared to the consensus analyst estimate of RMB 366 million, representing a significant miss of market expectations [3].

Shuijingfang attributes the performance decline to the

[1][2]:

• Macroeconomic Cycle
  : Slowing economic growth has impacted consumer confidence
• Industry Adjustment Cycle
  : The liquor industry has shifted from incremental competition to stock competition
• Impact of Policy Adjustments
  : Recovery of consumption scenarios, especially traditional business banquets, has been slow

Industry data shows that

, terminal sales are sluggish, and terminal sales for many liquor companies are only [4]. Mid-premium and mid-range products are facing severe price pressure, and the prices of Shuijingfang’s core products such as Jingtai have continued to decline moderately in the Greater Bay Area [5].

In response to industry adjustments, Shuijingfang has adopted

[1][2]:

1. Maintain Channel Health
   : Moderately control shipment rhythm, optimize inventory structure, and ensure channel capital security
2. Deepen Market Adjustment
   : Implement suspension of shipments, optimize gift-with-purchase policies, and strengthen market order management
3. Maintain Long-Term Investment
   : Continue investment in brand building, terminal expansion, and product innovation

The

is a reduction in sales and shipment volumes, but the company emphasizes that channel inventory quality, price stability, and distribution structure have all improved [2].

Notably, Shuijingfang’s distribution channels have experienced significant fluctuations [6]:

• Net decrease of 18 distributors in Q1 2025, a quarter-on-quarter decline of nearly 30%
• Number of shareholders of high-end liquor sales company (Shixin) plummeted from 25 to 10
• Q1 revenue from the wholesale agency channel fell 19.96% year-on-year

According to management statements [1][2], the following progress has been made in current channel adjustments:

Adjustment Dimension	Current Status	Evaluation
Channel Inventory Quality	Improved	✅ Improved to a healthy level
Price System Stability	Tending to Stabilize	✅ Optimized distribution structure
Terminal Sales Recovery	Still Takes Time	⏳ Gradually recovering

:

• The Spring Festival peak season is a key observation window
• Terminal sales are expected to improve, but full inventory destocking will still take time
• Performance may continue to be under pressure

:

• Institutions such as Goldman Sachs predict that the liquor industry is expected to
  bottom out and rebound
  [4]
• High-end banquet and business demand will recover on a low base
• After effective channel inventory destocking, the price system is expected to stabilize and rebound

:

• Investment in brand building will lay the foundation for the next growth cycle
• Product innovation and organizational capability improvement will enhance competitiveness

Based on the closing price on January 19 [1]:

• Price-to-Earnings Ratio (TTM)
  : Approximately 50.25x
• Price-to-Book Ratio (LF)
  : Approximately 3.91x
• Price-to-Sales Ratio (TTM)
  : Approximately 6.48x

1. Macroeconomic Recovery Falls Short of Expectations
   : Slow recovery of consumer confidence impacts liquor demand
2. Industry Inventory Destocking Lags Behind Expectations
   : Channel inventory pressure persists
3. Uncertainty in Consumption Scenario Recovery
   : Sluggish demand in core scenarios such as business banquets
4. Uncertainty in General Manager Appointment
   : The company is still in the process of recruiting a general manager [7]

Shuijingfang’s sharp performance decline in 2025 is the result of the superposition of

. The company has adopted a strategy of “trading price for volume, and time for space”, prioritizing channel health. Although it is under short-term performance pressure, it has laid a more solid foundation for stable development in the future.

• Initial results have emerged
  : Channel inventory quality, price system stability, and distribution structure have all improved
• Full effectiveness requires waiting
  : It is expected that the effects of Shuijingfang’s channel adjustment will be fully reflected in performance only in the second half of 2026, after the industry as a whole bottoms out and rebounds
• Key Observation Period
  : The Spring Festival 2026 terminal sales performance will be an important verification node

For investors, it is currently necessary to pay attention to the progress of channel inventory destocking, Spring Festival peak season terminal sales performance, and the progress of the company’s general manager recruitment. Short-term performance pressure is inevitable, but in the medium to long term, it is necessary to wait for valuation recovery opportunities brought by the reversal of the industry cycle.

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[1] Eastmoney - Shuijingfang: 2025 Net Profit Expected to Drop 71% Year-on-Year (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601193623564818.html)

[2] Securities Times - Shuijingfang Expects 2025 Net Profit of Only RMB 400 Million; Channel Inventory, Prices, and Distribution Structure Have Improved (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3600649.html)

[3] CLS - Shuijingfang 2025 Net Profit Expected to Drop 71% Year-on-Year; Q4 Performance Misses Expectations Significantly (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2262327)

[4] Sina Finance - Signal from Moutai’s Pricing Reform! Goldman Sachs: The Liquor Industry Accelerates Price Clearing (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2026-01-15/doc-inhhkwcm7486878.shtml)

[5] Eastmoney - Wine Watch | Half-Year Overview of Liquor in the Greater Bay Area: Prices of Famous Liquors Continue to Decline (https://wap.eastmoney.com/a/202512253601799246.html)

[6] Sohu Finance - Expected Loss of Over RMB 80 Million in Q2; Shuijingfang’s Channel and Inventory Pressures Emerge (https://www.sohu.com/a/914419990_120109837)

[7] Securities Times - Direct Interview with Shuijingfang: Responds to Key Issues Such as Inventory; General Manager Recruitment Has Reached the Late Stage (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1223963.html)